Prediction: Jonathan Williams will net 400 more yards than Alex Collins

Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins hardly have been distinguishable the last two seasons.

Dreadlocks and a No. 3 jersey? That’s Collins.

Two inches taller and a No. 32 jersey? That’s Williams.

For opposing defenses, it’s hardly mattered. Running behind a group of mastodon offensive linemen, the duo finished fourth (Williams) and fifth (Collins) in the SEC in rushing last year.

It may seem inadvisable to predict a small chasm to form between the two this season, but that’s exactly what I’m doing. Go ahead and write it down if you want: Williams will gain 400 more yards of total offense than Collins during the 2015 season.

Arkansas coach Bret Bielema turned heads after spring practice when the team’s depth chart did not include an “OR” distinction between Williams and Collins. Instead, the Razorbacks listed Collins as 2a alongside Kody Walker as 2b.

IN AND OUT OF THE DOGHOUSE?

It’s unclear whether to that logistical formality to a week-long suspension Collins incurred in February.

“We need to see guys make physical gains, strength gains and then definitely in the academic area,” Bielema told WholeHogSports.com this spring after doling out suspensions to several players.

“And if somebody is lacking in those three areas, it’s pretty easy for me to remove the football side of it until they figure it out, because that usually makes kids a little bit more accountable.”

It’s not the first suspension Bielema has levied against Collins, whom the team forced to sit out the first quarter against Alabama after he missed “a pair of workouts.”

In the last two seasons, Collins also has fumbled 10 times to Williams’ six. It may seem like the discrepancy is even higher. Collins fumbled on the final possession of a 21-14 loss at Missouri last year. He also fumbled in the red zone near the end of regulation in a 24-17 overtime loss to Mississippi State in 2013.

There’s no way of knowing whether Collins will get suspended again, whether he’ll continue to fumble the ball or whether any of this will have a surefire affect on the distribution of carries. But Williams seems to have an advantage, or at least a potential one, in this area.

LATE-SEASON FADE

Collins’ numbers have dipped dramatically after Oct. 1, as the season gets longer and SEC defenses show up on Arkansas’ schedule with greater regularity.

Williams also has seen his numbers decline after the early-season games, many of which are decided by halftime and feature relentless handoffs up the gut in the third and fourth quarters. But not nearly as dramatically as Collins.

CAREER STATS PRE- AND POST-OCT. 1

Surely the Arkansas coaching staff is aware that after September, Collins’ career rushing average plummets nearly 2 yards per carry.

Williams holds a decent advantage in terms of efficiency after the first month of the season. Perhaps the Razorbacks will curtail Collins’ early-season carries by a marginal amount in hopes that he’ll stay fresher through the SEC schedule.

RECEIVING

There’s been some talk that new offensive coordinator Dan Enos will feature the running backs a bit more as pass-catchers.

That would jive with Bielema’s tinkering along the offensive line, as he’s asked a few of the linemen to cut weight and/or move positions. The team’s line is better equipped to get out and run on screen passes.

This is another element that favors Williams, who has almost twice as many career catches and 473 more career receiving yards.

CAREER RECEIVING NUMBERS

OVERALL

Both of these running backs are tremendous, especially within Arkansas’ effective system. Each player is a legitimate threat to reach the 1,000-yard milestone this year, and by no means is this an attempt to downplay the ability of either player.

I just believe Williams will get 50 more carries than Collins this year, whether it’s to preserve Collins, to avoid fumbles or due to the latter falling in Bielema’s doghouse. Williams also should have an advantage by generating additional receiving yards.

It’s a bold prediction, and it may not come true. But by the end of the season, I expect Williams to generate 400 more yards of total offense.