Betting Stuff: Analysis, picks against the spread for every Sweet 16 game

The Sweet 16 gets rolling on Thursday night with a pair of 1-seeds and a surprise 6-seed. After the second round of the NCAA Tournament saw favorites go 11-5 against the spread and 15-1 straight up, the field is looking pretty chalky. Will the Sweet 16 provide some added drama or just more of the same?

Here are my against-the-spread picks for the round:

(Note: All spreads via ESPN BET unless otherwise noted; all times Eastern)

2 Arizona vs. 6 Clemson | Thursday, March 28 | 7:09 p.m. | CBS | Los Angeles, California

Spread: Arizona -6.5

Total: 152.5

Clemson has committed just 20 total turnovers in 137 NCAA Tournament possessions and no one left in the field has a better win thus far than the Tigers’ 72-64 victory over 3-seed Baylor in the second round. But the Tigers have also been the beneficiary of some pretty remarkable shooting luck. New Mexico (a 33% shooting team) made only 3 of its 23 triples against the Tigers in the first round. Baylor (a top-10 3-point shooting team) made only 6 of its 24 attempts.

Arizona makes 37% of its 3s on the season (top 20 nationally). Kylan Boswell was excellent in the first-round win. Pelle Larsson stepped up in the second-round win. Caleb Love is bound to get it going at some point. He’s too good a scorer. And 3-point attempts are abundantly available against the Tigers. Regression to the mean happens on both sides and Arizona finally breaks through under Tommy Lloyd.

Pick: Arizona -6.5 (via ESPN BET)

1 UConn vs. 5 San Diego State | Thursday, March 28 | 7:39 p.m. | TBS/truTV | Boston, Massachusetts

Spread: UConn -11.5

Total: 136.5

The Huskies are better than they were when they won the national championship last season. They’re a buzzsaw right now, fueled by the unstoppable Donovan Clingan. The 7-2 star is shooting 78% from the field through UConn’s first 2 tournament games. Huskies roll.

Pick: UConn -11.5 (via ESPN BET)

1 North Carolina vs. 4 Alabama | Thursday, March 28 | 9:39 p.m. | CBS | Los Angeles, California

Spread: North Carolina -4.5

Total: 173.5

Alabama seems like a dangerous team at the moment. Through the first 2 rounds, the Tide have proven they can win in several ways, be it running over an opponent or grinding out a game where they didn’t have their best stuff. Alabama has one of the best offenses in the country and one of the best guards in the NCAA Tournament running the show. If the 3-point shooting resurfaces, Alabama can win this outright. Big “last one with the ball wins” energy here.

Pick: Alabama +4.5 (via Bet365)

2 Iowa State vs. 3 Illinois | Thursday, March 28 | 10:09 p.m. | TBS/truTV | Boston, Massachusetts

Spread: Iowa State -1.5

Total: 147.5

Similar to Clemson, Iowa State has used 3-point fortune to roll into the Sweet 16. In the Cyclones’ last 4 games, they have made 38 triples at a 48% clip. Throughout their first 32 games, Iowa State made an average of 6 triples a game at a 34% clip. Illinois’ defense is nothing to write home about, but the Illini do protect the 3-point line better than most. Terrence Shannon Jr. is the difference-maker for me. Illinois will have the best player on the floor, a guard who is averaging 30.5 points per game over his last 6.

Pick: Illinois +1.5 (via BetMGM)

2 Marquette vs. 11 NC State | Friday, March 29 | 7:09 p.m. | CBS | Dallas, Texas

Spread: Marquette -6.5

Total: 151.5

Marquette trailed Western Kentucky by 7 at halftime in its first-round matchup, and it was a 4-point game with a little under 9 minutes to play. The Golden Eagles then blew an 11-point halftime lead against Colorado in the second round and found themselves in another tight game late. It was tied with 4:02 to play before Colorado missed 6 of its last 7 shots. Sometimes, early adversity can help a team that gets to the second weekend.

NC State’s Cinderella run comes to an end here, where the 3-ball will be the leveler. The Golden Eagles force teams out beyond the arc. NC State wants to play inside. Marquette loves the 3 on offense. NC State’s defensive strength is in its 2-point defense. The better team wins.

Pick: Marquette -6.5 (via ESPN BET)

1 Purdue vs. 5 Gonzaga | Friday, March 29 | 7:39 p.m. | TBS/truTV | Detroit, Michigan

Spread: Purdue -5.5

Total: 154.5

So far this tournament, the Boilermakers have shot 52% from the field, shot 43% from 3, and assisted on 79% of their makes. The thing that was their undoing last season — horrendous outside shooting — has been flipped into a strength this season. Purdue is the best 3-point shooting team in the country at 40.9%, making for a nightmare decision on how to guard the offense. Edey is averaging 27 points, 17.5 rebounds, and 3 blocks a game through the first two rounds. Do you throw bodies at him (which Gonzaga can do) and risk getting buried with the triple the way Utah State was? Gonzaga has been better than its seed in the tournament, but Purdue is the best team in the field.

Pick: Purdue -5.5 (via ESPN BET)

1 Houston vs. 4 Duke | Friday, March 29 | 9:39 p.m. | CBS | Dallas, Texas

Spread: Houston -4.5

Total: 134.5

Texas A&M took 45 free throws and turned the ball over just 11 times in 45 minutes. Had the Aggies not missed 16 foul shots, Houston would have gone home early. Of course, we can look at Houston’s 100-95 overtime win over Texas A&M a different way; A&M took 45 free throws and fouled out 4 Houston players and still couldn’t topple the Cougars.

Against Duke, I like the matchups Houston can exploit. The Blue Devils run their offense through an area of the floor the Cougars rip away from opponents. To beat Kelvin Sampson’s unit, you have to go over and around. While he hasn’t exactly been stuffing the box sheet through his first 2 tournament games, Duke still wants to play through Kyle Filipowski in the high post area. Houston should be able to take that away. The vastly more physical team wins.

Pick: Houston -3.5 (via BetMGM)

2 Tennessee vs. 3 Creighton | Friday, March 29 | 10:09 p.m. | TBS/truTV | Detroit, Michigan

Spread: Tennessee -2.5

Total: 143.5

I’ve been a firm believer for weeks that this Tennessee team can make the Final Four. The Vols have to find their 3-point stroke to do it. In the SEC Tournament loss to Mississippi State and then again in the second-round win over Texas, Tennessee was woeful shooting the ball from distance. Creighton pairs one of the best 2-point efficiencies in the country with one of the highest 3-point volumes in the country. The UT offense needs to find itself. I think it will, and Dalton Knecht will have a signature performance.

Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (via Bet365)