Iowa vs. UConn betting preview: Picks for Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers in Final Four clash

Iowa and Connecticut will meet in a Final Four showdown for the ages on Friday night in Cleveland.

This is a matchup between the sport’s most-storied program (UConn) and its most-accomplished active player (Caitlin Clark). UConn is in pursuit of a record 12th national championship. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are back in the Final Four for the second year in a row with Clark leading the charge.

UConn has a superstar of its own in Paige Bueckers, who, like Clark, is also a former Wooden Award winner. The matchup between Clark and Bueckers will headline this highly-anticipated Final Four clash.

Here are the latest betting lines for this contest courtesy of DraftKings:

Spread: Iowa -3
Total: 162.5 points
Money line: Iowa -155 | UConn +130

Here’s a look at some advanced stats for this matchup:

Note: All advanced stats data comes via WarrenNolan.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa offensive rating: 118.2 (1st)
UConn defensive rating: 81.2 (9th)

Iowa has had the best offense in the country this season, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has watched Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes play in 2024. Clark is obviously the leader here, as she averages an efficient 32 points per game (on a 61.6% true shooting percentage). Clark scored 41 points in Iowa’s win over LSU in the Elite Eight, which was her 3rd-career NCAA Tournament game with 40+ points. But Hannah Stuelke, Kate Martin, Gabbie Marshall and Sydney Affolter are also all efficient scorers in their own right, albeit on lower volume.

UConn’s defense will provide Iowa with some quality resistance, however. The Huskies rank 9th nationally in defensive rating while facing a top-10 strength-of-schedule. Iowa has faced just one defense better than UConn’s on a per-possession basis this season: Kansas State. The Wildcats’ defense held up very well in a 65-58 win over the Hawkeyes in Iowa City back in November. Clark had an off-night, as she shot 9-of-32 from the floor and 2-of-16 from 3-point range.

UConn’s defense is excellent at forcing turnovers. The Huskies ranked 32nd nationally and 1st amongst Big East programs in steal rate this season at 13.8%. Paige Bueckers and KK Arnold both averaged more than 2 steals per game this season.

When UConn has the ball

UConn offensive rating: 110.6 (10th)
Iowa defensive rating: 92.9 (196th)

Bueckers is UConn’s leader on the offensive side of the ball. While Clark has garnered a larger share of media attention over the past couple of seasons, Bueckers was once the player out of the 2020 high school recruiting class that was thought of as a generational talent. Bueckers has rebounded from a couple of injury-plagued campaigns and is averaging 22 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists per game this year. She’s also an elite shooter, making more than 41% of her attempts from 3-point range. Aaliyah Edwards and Ashlynn Shade also average double-figures on the season.

Iowa’s defense has been significantly less convincing. The Hawkeyes have really struggled on that end of the floor this season, especially for an elite team. However, this hasn’t necessarily been a fatal flaw in the past. Iowa’s defensive rating also stuck out in a negative way last season when the Hawkeyes made it all the day to the national title game. They were also still able to get past LSU in the Elite Eight last weekend despite concerns on the defensive end of the floor.

Point spread analysis

On paper, UConn should be favored in this game. The Huskies and Hawkeyes have played similar schedules in terms of overall quality (both are top-10 per RPI), but it’s UConn who has performed better this season. UConn posted a net rating of +29.5 this season, which is significantly better than Iowa’s mark of +25.3. Given its history, it’s remarkable that UConn is playing in a game where it is undervalued in the market — but that seems to be what’s happening here.

The projection from Warren Nolan for this game is not in-line with the Vegas expectation. Per that site’s prediction, the Huskies should be favored by a full 3 points in this matchup. Instead, they’re 3-point underdogs at bet365. All credit to Clark for leading Iowa to the Final Four for the second year in a row, but that’s too much value to pass up.

PICK: UConn +3.5 (-105 at bet365)

Caitlin Clark point total prop

Caitlin Clark point total: 33.5 points (via DraftKings)

Caitlin Clark’s point total for the LSU game was 31.5 points. The star guard soared over that total with a 41-point performance thanks in-part to sinking 9 3-pointers on the day. LSU drew a lot of criticism for how it chose to defend Clark — typically with Hailey Van Lith on the ball. The Tigers also went under the screen on at least a couple of occasions, which Clark punished without hesitation. I don’t think UConn will be nearly as careless in its defensive coverages in this spot. Clark scored 34+ points in just 15 of 37 games this season. I think there’s considerable value on the under.

PICK: Caitlin Clark under 33.5 points (-105)

Paige Bueckers point total prop

Paige Bueckers point total: 26.5 points (via DraftKings)

Bueckers has been on a tear lately. Since the start of the Big East Tournament, she’s averaging 27.9 points per game on shooting splits of 51%/44%/74%. That explains why her point total for this game is 4.5 points above her season-average of 22 points per contest. Iowa averages over 6 more possessions per game than UConn, so this could be a higher-paced game than the Huskies are used to — which would provide Bueckers with more possessions to get above this total.

Given Iowa’s struggles on the defensive end of the floor as well as Bueckers’ hot streak, I think it makes sense to go with the over in this spot.

PICK: Paige Bueckers over 26.5 points (-120)

Hannah Stuelke rebounds prop

Hannah Stuelke rebound total: 6.5 rebounds (via DraftKings)

In the Elite Eight, Iowa faced the nation’s No. 1 offensive rebounding team in LSU. Stuelke battled, but only picked up 5 boards in 21 minutes due to foul trouble against the Tigers’ elite front court. This matchup is much friendlier to Stuelke from a rebounding perspective. The Huskies don’t crash the offensive glass nearly as hard, as they rank 173rd nationally in that category. Stuelke averages 6.8 rebounds per game in just 24 minutes of action — if she’s on the floor for longer in this game, she should have no trouble getting to 7 boards. Even if she’s in foul trouble again, I think there’s a good chance she can hit the over.

PICK: Hannah Stuelke over 6.5 rebounds (-110)