2020 Heisman Odds: Shades of 1994 as DeVonta Smith soars into the race
Let’s make the rounds on the 2020 Heisman race and look at the latest Heisman odds…
Note: Online sports betting is now live in Tennessee, so the odds listed here will be based on odds from FanDuel Sportsbook Tennessee.
Heisman House hopefuls
The 2020 Heisman Race is beginning to mirror the 1994 campaign. One team is in pursuit of a perfect season with a pair of Heisman hopefuls (Alabama ‘20, Penn State ‘94) and another is just on the outside looking in with a statistical monster as its offensive catalyst (Florida ‘20, Colorado ‘94). And despite the fact that Mac Jones has overtaken Kyle Trask as the odds-on favorite to win the award next month, Jones’ ticket-holders should be nervous. DeVonta Smith’s 8/231/3 performance against LSU has rocketed the wideout into serious contention, changing his odds from 100:1 just two weeks ago to 20:1 as of this morning.
Not to go full Steve Kornacki on everyone, but the ‘94 Heisman vote could provide a preview of what is to come for Jones, Trask and Smith. Ki-Jana Carter and Kerry Collins led Penn State to a perfect season in 1994, with Collins taking home the Maxwell Award. When it came time to cast their ballots, however, Heisman voters were split on the pair of playmakers from Happy Valley. Collins finished 4th in the race but siphoned off 101 first-place votes. That was the most for a 4th-place finisher in Heisman history, a record that stood until 2009 when Ndamukong Suh garnered 161 first-place votes.
Beyond the ballots, Collins also hogged the spotlight and stat-sheet at times. In the end, Carter toted the rock 100 fewer times than the eventual winner, Rashaan Salaam, a fact that essentially cost him the Heisman. If he had received the same amount of carries, Carter would have dwarfed Salaam’s production. Case in point, Carter nearly tied Salaam in rushing touchdowns (23 to 24) despite the massive touch disparity.
Could Smith take the spotlight away from Jones in a similar way? I think it’s decidedly possible given the shift in the betting mark and the way in which Smith is making eye-popping plays. Wide receivers and running backs have a decided “highlight” advantage over pocket passers when it comes to Heisman hype. Smith’s Beckham-esque touchdown grab is just one example.
But will Jones’ loss be Trask’s gain? I still believe this year’s Heisman will come down to the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. And as I detailed last week, if you’re bullish on Trask to win the Heisman, you may as well take UF on the moneyline (+200 to +300) instead of Trask’s current odds (-110).
Current Heisman Odds: Weekend update
(Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook Tennessee)
Kyle Trask, Florida, QB | Odds shift (-135 to -110) ⏬
Ahh, the insanity of the Heisman race. The favorite throws for 433 yards, 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions and is … passed by another candidate. Despite this “setback,” the score is the same for Trask. Beat the Crimson Tide in Atlanta, send the Gators to the College Football Playoff for the first time and collect your Heisman Trophy. Easy peasy.
Mac Jones, Alabama, QB | Odds shift (+175 to -125) ⏫
May I present Mac Jones’ QBR in his past 3 games: 96.5, 95.8, 99.6. Games are quickly devolving into 7-on-7 drills for Jones and this Alabama offense. The only thing left to do is win a shootout with Florida in the SEC title game. Do that, and I think Jones will become the first Alabama quarterback to win the Heisman in school history.
DeVonta Smith, Alabama, WR | Odds shift (+10000 to +2500) ⏫
Over his last 4 games, Smith is averaging just shy of 9 receptions for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns per game. Essentially, that’s averaging a career day for a wide receiver every Saturday for a month straight. He’s a shoo-in for the Biletnikoff Award, he’ll likely be selected in the top 15 of the NFL Draft and he is in the midst of building the best receiver highlight reel in college football history. You can’t really ask for much more from Smith, which speaks to the inherent bias of the Heisman Trophy. If he can’t crack the top 2, no wide receiver can reasonably be expected to ever do so.
Justin Fields, Ohio State, QB | Odds shift +2000 to +2200) ⏬
Just like Trevor Lawrence, Fields has faded from contention due, in large part, to COVID cancellations. His play on the field has been, for the most part, tremendous, but he needed to be otherworldly to catch up to the SEC favorites. Fields’ stat-line against Michigan State, 4 total touchdowns and 303 total yards, would have been enough for him to “hold serve” had he been at the top of the watch list heading into the game. As a contender in need of a late-season surge, his performance wasn’t enough to truly move the needle. This is also a prime example of the pitfalls of competing against yourself. Fields was flawless in his first season in Columbus, which means that any time he stumbles statistically, it’s viewed as a letdown.
Any value left?
For anyone to win the Heisman outside of the trio of SEC contenders, 3 things need to happen.
1. Alabama needs to be upset by Arkansas in a game that is thrown away (INTs) by Mac Jones. 2. Alabama then needs to suffocate Kyle Trask in the SEC title game. And then … Ian Book needs to single-handedly defeat Clemson in the ACC title game, thereby sending the Irish back to the CFP. Your reward for all of these things happening? A measly 20:1 payout.
If any of those things fail to happen, a Book Heisman ticket is essentially worthless. I would only take a flyer on the Golden Domer if I could find a sportsbook offering him at 30:1 or higher; that’s my threshold.
We will continue to monitor the changes in Heisman odds as we head toward the Heisman Trophy presentation on January 5, 2021.
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Mac is a hell of a QB and I see why him and Trask are 1 and 2. I just wonder if voters take into account the talent Mac has around him vs Trask
Queue the triggered Bama fans.
Agree, the way Trask catches his own passes really sets him apart IMO.
Lol
It’s an interesting comparison that I think could actually be argued either way. Jones may look better because of all the talent around him, but at the same time if Florida were more balanced, would Trask be putting up these numbers?
There may be a case to be made that Mac is just as impressive or moreso given what he’s doing even with Najee Harris taking on a big part of the offensive workload.
It’s such a tired, lazy argument against Mac. Mac does have elite talent around him, no arguing that, but so does every other Heisman contender. You know Trask also has 5* and 4* (Grimes, Shorter, Copeland) players at receiver and the most dynamic mismatch in college football (Pitts). Fields has blue chippers all around him. Lawrence has 5* receivers and one of the best RBs in ACC history.
I would love for Mac to win the Heisman, but it would just be a cherry on top. I imagine Mac feels the same way as he has a bigger goal at hand.
In the end, there really is no need to argue the two because whoever wins the SEC championship game will mostly likely take home the award. If Bama wins the SEC and Trask still takes home the award, then good for him.
Agreed – having talent around you often means it’s HARDER to win the Heisman, an individual award, since individual stats are either split with receivers or lost out to a RB, as shown with Trask having 11 more TD passes than Jones. UF doesn’t have a run game, so Trask is getting more chances to gain passing TDs. Personally, I see Trask winning the Heisman based on better numbers than Jones (sharing TDs and Votes)and better numbers than Fields and Lawrence based on fewer games played. Alabama will win a shootout in Atlanta, so UF will get some awards, but Bama will get the Championship (and some awards too).
Better numbers? Trask leads in yards per game & TD passes which may be inflated by lack of running game and/or 100 more attempts. Jones leads in QBR, completion %, yards per completion & yards per attempt. Jones actually leads Trask in all the other metrics. Jones also has lead his team to 11 more total touchdowns and zero losses. I like Trask and think he plays great. Without him y’all aren’t the same team. Without Jones ability to throw the ball Harris doesn’t have the season he is having also.
DarthA beat me to the point. Trask has ONLY the touchdown pass statistic to argue over Jones. Florida’s offense has been in decline for a month now, as people figure out that they are a one dimensional team. Mac Jones doesn’t need to throw a pair of 4 yard touchdown passes to get Alabama into the end zone every game.
DarthA/Darviathar – that’s exactly my point, Trask DOES need to throw 4-yard TD passes and Jones DOES have better stats other than TDs and Yards because of UF’s one-dimensional offense. Trask will need to throw against LSU and Bama, leading to more yards and TDs. Harris will run over Arkansas and prob put up 3 TDs vs UF in the SEC. Saban’s smart and the gameplay vs UF is run and keep the ball away from the offense (see UK first half). UF has Swiss cheese defense that winless Vandy put 400 up against. If all holds true, Trask will end up with more passing yards and TDs than Jones. Individual awards usually go to the person with the higher stats. Yes, it can go to the best player on the best team (see Eric Crouch), but can also go to a player with better statistics on a team with losses (Lamar Jackson 9-4 Louisville). Same would be true if they swapped teams, Trask would throw less at Bama and Jones would throw more at UF. Both are great QBs putting up great numbers, my point was simply that individual awards typically go to individuals based on season stats. As it stands now, Trask will probably end up in the mid-40s on TDs with close to 4,000 yards. Jones will end up in the mid or low 30s with TDs (due to Bama’s ability to run) and somewhere near 4,000 yards too. Typically the Heisman goes to the player with higher on-paper numbers. Jones has the better QBR (96.3 vs Trask 92.7) and better completion percentage (75.6% vs Trask 71.4%) those things just don’t seem to matter as much as TDs when it comes to Heisman voting, plus Jones has to compete with his own teammates for votes. You never know with the Heisman, just saying raw number favor Trask in my opinion.
Would it be weird for Jones to be the first Alabama QB to win the Heisman when Tua was a better QB and maybe more beloved? Our 3 Heisman winners are the 3 best QBs and most beloved players to play at UF. I just don’t get that sense from Jones, as essentially a 1 and done.
1 and done? Mac is essentially a RS Junior.
I meant 1 year of playing.
Doesn’t Trask also have a deep roster of highly talented pass catchers to throw to?
Absolutely. I think the comparison is supposed to consider running game and O-line as well. More or less, Trask is carrying the Gators more than Mac is carrying the Tide.
Not saying I necessarily agree – if we had Bama’s running game, I bet Trask’s yards and TD stats would look quite a bit different.
Good point. Flip side. I wonder if voters will take into account that Trask has 100 more attempts than Jones. I wonder if they will look beyond the thrown TDs and see that Jones throws the ball longer per completion and still has a better completion %. Being accurate on deep balls isn’t just the receiver. Jones hasn’t thrown TD passes to 8 different players like Trask so that does kind of minimize that talent comment. It also means Jones is competing against his own teammates while Trask gets all the attention. I hope you see this as a legitimate post and not one from a triggered Bama fan as the snarky Gator fan alluded to.
No one wins the Heisman on their own. There has to be someone to catch, block, or run the ball.
If both Smith and Jones are receiving votes it’ll probably go to Trask as long as he plays well against Bama, even if UF loses the game.
I actually wouldn’t be surprised if many/most ballots Jones and Smith as 1 and 2, in whichever order, because America loves Alabama football.
They should just give out three this year. I’m pulling hard fore Jones but all three has done enough to earn it.
Smith and Harris will take votes from Jones. All three are legit candidates. Best trio of QB, WR, and RB ever?
It will be interesting to see how the voting plays out. I’ve gone back and forth, depending on the week, between the two QB’s. Both are deserving and doing amazing things. There are no negatives with either. Both are doing a great job playing the hand they have been dealt. I agree with lots of others who have said that it should come down to the CCG, unless something unexpected happens this week.
Take away Pitts and Smiths production from these guys and what do you have? Trask would have 27 tds and 2600 yards. Jones Would have 12 tds and 1800, end of discussion.
Since the Heisman will be a remote zoom kind of thing this season, why don’t they just FedEx the Heisman to Gainesville right now?
So just using what you posted how do we keep getting Florida fans telling us that Mac has it easier because of the player around him…
That comment alone makes it seem Trask has it easier with more targets wouldn’t you say?
You all need to get together and figure out what twist you’re going with this week…
Is this stilted and fumbling attempt at analyze numbers supposed to prove something? I’m surprised you can even find your keyboard through such thick blue and orange glasses.
Jones is a product of the Smithstym.
You should change your handle to Mr Idiot
I think Trask is more deserving, for the same tired argument that he has less talent around him. The main thing is the lack of a running game. Defenses know they have to stop Trask. When they play Bama, they have to stop Jones, Harris, etc. Let’s face it, Harris is a tremendous help to Jones.
Well according to a Gator fan above this would not seem to be the case. He said that take away Pitts and Smiths production from these guys and what do you have? Trask would have 27 tds and 2600 yards. Jones Would have 12 tds and 1800. Seems that Trask has the more talent by these stats.
One thing I think is lost in the stats debate is what those stats looks like on the field of play. Numerically, the case can be made for both.
When I watch Bama play, I see multiple deep shots to guys who are 5 yards away from anyone. Jones does an excellent job of hitting them in stride whether on whatever the route is, but its rarely a highly contested through because of seperation.
Conversely, because of the lack of running game, teams have someone overtop of UF secondary. This puts more pressure on Trask and the recievers. This also creates tighter windows. PFF rates Trask lower because of the windows he thriws into. Watching Trask this year had been a thing a beauty. His ball placement is insane. Recievers make amazing catches as well. But the amazing catches are made in places where defenders are in great position yet have no chance.
Mind you, Jones has made some tight window throws as well. I just feel Trask does so at a much higher frequency because of the lack of run game.
It’s absolutely Jones’ to lose barring a freak accident. Cause when Bama whoops that a$$, and they will, there’s no way they can give it to Trask. End of story
No love for Devonta?
Salty about that Cocktail Party I see.
Kyle Trask and Mac are equally amazing QBs.
Devonta is a far amazinger player.
Davonta will light up the weak florida D for big plays the whole game–with 200-300 yards in that game he could be in the Heisman race.
With the way they are playing and the play calling they are getting, I don’t think you would be disappointed if you had either QB.
Smith isn’t necessarily a shoo in for the belitnekov, Elijah Moore is having a fantastic year and is a game behind. Smith should definitely get some Heisman love but I have always felt if there are two players on one team high on the Heisman ballot then probably neither should be on there. Jones has turned into a heck of a an but all things considered najee and Smith have powered that beast as much as any one and Harris is averaging like 6 ypc, 110+ ypg and has scored 20 tds in 9 games. When you have that much talent on the field with that oline, it’s just insane, but smith and the way he has stepped up even more since waddles injury stands out. He should be the crimson tides shot for the Heisman this season. I still think Trask should win and Suh should have