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I gave my thoughts on the early lines for each quarterfinal game last week. Here are the 2 games I’m targeting in the second round of the College Football Playoff.
(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)
- Regular season record: 29-32
- Conference championship week: 2-1
- CFP first round: 0-2
College Football Playoff Quarterfinal odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | |
| No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State | Penn State -11.5 | 53.5 | PSU -470 BSU +360 |
| No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State | Texas -12.5 | 51 | UT -500 ASU +380 |
| No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon | Ohio State -2.5 | 55.5 | OSU -130 UO +110 |
| No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia | Georgia -1 | 45 | ND -105 UGA -115 |
All odds via DraftKings
Penn State team total over 34.5 points (+110 via DraftKings)
If you’ve been spooked by Penn State’s offensive performance in the first round, don’t be. That was a really good SMU defense that deserves credit for holding the Nittany Lions to basically 24 offensive points. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings couldn’t figure out which color jerseys his team was wearing for whatever reason, and the lopsided scoreboard reflected that. The Mustangs were not blown out because of Penn State’s offense. An important distinction.
Boise State might get blown out because of Penn State’s offense. SMU’s defense ranks ninth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play (Game on Paper). Boise State ranks 65th — the worst of any remaining Playoff team. The Boise State defense gave up a ton of explosives and missed a ton of tackles against Mountain West competition this season. (Southern Miss is the only FBS team with a worse team tackling grade this season, per PFF.) Now, they must step up in class for the first time and try to deal with Kaytron Allen, Nic Singleton, and Tyler Warren.
I expect the Broncos will have to walk an extra man or 2 down into the box to deal with the Nittany Lions’ rushing attack. Penn State has been one of the best teams in the country this season on early downs (93rd percentile in EPA/play), and if it is constantly operating in second-and-2 or 3, this becomes a massive Drew Allar game. Andy Kotelnicki’s offense is drenched with pre-snap window dressing to get defenses to either show their hand or misalign pre-snap. Boise State will have to constantly be aware of Tyler Warren while also having to sell out to stop a top-5 rushing attack (by success rate) while also having to play uncharacteristically sound football. It just feels like too much to ask.
Penn State should rightly be concerned about Ashton Jeanty on the other side, but Boise State might be playing catch-up in this game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an aggressive approach from Kotelnicki early.
Georgia-Notre Dame total under 45.5 points (-114 via FanDuel)
Georgia’s offense left plenty to be desired with Carson Beck. Now, the Bulldogs are turning to a backup quarterback who will start his first career game against one of the most aggressive, ball-hawking secondaries in college football and a defensive coordinator in Al Golden who throws a lot at opposing quarterbacks. Georgia should be lining up and running it at this Notre Dame team. The Irish are a bit undersized on the defensive line, and they’ll be playing their first game since losing star interior defensive lineman Rylie Mills to a season-ending injury. Notre Dame ranks 90th this season in rushing success rate allowed (per Game on Paper). Gunner Stockton changed the game with his legs when he was inserted in the third quarter of the SEC title game against Texas. He provides an extra element that Beck just doesn’t and I’m expecting Georgia to try and build off of that.
On the other side, Notre Dame is built to run and Georgia (51st in EPA per run) has operated well below the usual standard for its run defense all year. (The Bulldogs ranked top-30 in EPA/run every year from 2019-23.) We’ve seen Notre Dame’s offensive line create chunk runs on the ground and we know the Irish have multiple home run-hitters to make those plays. A flu-riddled and sore Jeremiyah Love changed the first-round game against Indiana with a 98-yard touchdown run. The point of concern with Notre Dame however is that if you remove that 1 play from the game, the Irish averaged 4.5 yards per snap and 3.2 yards per run. They got only bite-sized gains from the passing attack and don’t really have anyone on the outside that scares a secondary. This Georgia defense will be the biggest and the most athletic Notre Dame has seen all season, and probably by a decent degree. Notre Dame has played 1 comparable team all year and that was a 23-13 game.
Both of these teams should be looking to run the ball, control the clock, and shorten the game. I don’t know how Stockton will perform in his first full game, but I also don’t know if I trust Notre Dame to look the same against the first truly great team it has played all year. It’s the lowest point total of any quarterfinal game, but it might not be low enough.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
