Each week, we’ll be taking a look at the current College Football Playoff picture and the race to the 2024-25 National Championship. Who are the favorites to earn a spot in the 12-team field? Which teams are trending up? Who is fading? Last week’s picture can be found here. Let’s dive in.

(All odds via ESPN Bet)

Ohio State Buckeyes (-750 Yes/+450 No)

Trend: ⬇️

The Buckeyes were on a bye in Week 3 but saw this number dip slightly from where it was after Week 2. Ohio State plays Marshall in Week 4 and then hits the road to open Big Ten play against Michigan State in Week 5. If the Buckeyes aren’t 5-0 when they face Iowa on Oct. 5, something horrible has happened. From there, we’ll really see if this Buckeye team is what everyone thought it was. After hosting the Hawkeyes, Ohio State has games against Oregon, Nebraska, and Penn State, with only the Huskers having to play in Columbus.

Georgia Bulldogs (-750 Yes/+450 No)

Trend: No change

Georgia survived a poor showing at Kentucky in Week 3, escaping with a 13-12 win. But oddsmakers didn’t react much at all to the type of performance Georgia put forth. The Bulldogs ultimately won, extending their regular-season SEC wins streak to a league-record 28 games.

Texas Longhorns (-700 Yes/+425 No)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️

Two weeks ago, Texas was -260 to make the CFP. Now, even with a fuzzy picture at quarterback, the Longhorns have an implied 87.5% chance to make the CFP. The Arch Manning craze is out in full force after Quinn Ewers’ backup came in and devastated UTSA, and it seems likely Manning will get a start in Week 4 against UL Monroe while Ewers recovers from an oblique strain. Suggestions that Texas wouldn’t lose a step in the quest toward a national title if Manning had to replace Ewers full-time seem a little disrespectful to the job Ewers has done to this point in his career. Ewers has started a Playoff game; that experience is invaluable for Steve Sarkisian.

Oregon Ducks (-390 Yes/+270 No)

Trend: ⬆️

The Ducks answered the call in Week 3 by blasting Oregon State on the road. A 49-14 win over the Beavers doesn’t solve all the Ducks’ problems, but they sure looked like they took a step toward their potential. The offensive line was cleaner, and Dillon Gabriel responded with a 20-for-24 passing day.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-350 Yes/+250 No)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️ ⬆️  

Something to watch in the new 12-team Playoff era is the value of nonconference wins over other P4 programs. We might not get a ton of head-to-head matchups between the SEC and the Big Ten going forward, but when we do, they’re going to hold weight. Alabama demolishing Wisconsin on the road is going to mean something when it comes to determining how many at-large bids go to the SEC versus the Big Ten. The SEC is 2-1 against the Big Ten and 5-2 against the ACC so far. And both games against legacy Big Ten teams featured SEC blowouts.

Miami Hurricanes (-250 Yes/+190 No)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️ 

Cam Ward threw for 346 yards and 5 touchdowns as Miami rolled Ball State 62-0. The Huccianes outgained Ball State 750-115, setting a school record for yards in a single game. And the 62-point shutout also set a program record for the largest shutout victory over an FBS opponent in Miami history. Ward is now the Heisman favorite, and Miami looks like the favorite to win the ACC.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-250 Yes/+190 No)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Penn State is the biggest beneficiary of Michigan’s early-season malaise. The Wolverines haven’t looked great. If the Big Ten gets 3 spots, Penn State doesn’t have to worry about not facing Michigan or Oregon. The Nittany Lions will be cheering for USC this weekend, with a Trojan victory in Ann Arbor setting up a game with massive stakes in L.A. on Oct. 12.

Ole Miss Rebels (-250 Yes/+190 No)

Trend: ⬆️ 

The Rebels continued to roll over the early part of their schedule, going on the road and blasting Wake Forest 40-6.

Tennessee Volunteers (-200 Yes/+160 No)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Tennessee scored 65 points in a half against a no good, very bad Kent State team. The Vols had 37 points at the end of the first quarter and, at one point, recovered an onside kick. Josh Heupel’s group is giving no mercy, a danger for an Oklahoma team that hasn’t exactly found a footing on offense through the opening stretch of the season. Tennessee could reach “virtual lock” status if it wins big in Norman on Saturday.

USC Trojans (+150)

Trend: ⬆️ 

USC went into a bye week after shutting out Utah State 48-0 in Week 2. The Trojans can take a massive step toward the CFP with a win in Ann Arbor on Saturday.

Missouri Tigers (+160)

Trend: no change

Missouri did what it needed to in Week 3 against a feisty Boston College team, winning 27-21. The Tigers were down 14-3 early at home but took control of the game thanks in large part to the brilliance of Luther Burden III. The star Mizzou receiver caught 6 balls for 117 yards and a touchdown to push Missouri over the finish line.

Utah Utes (+180)

Trend: ⬆️

After getting hurt the week prior against Baylor, Utah quarterback Cameron Rising did not play in his team’s 38-21 win over Utah State. Instead, true freshman Isaac Wilson filled in for the veteran quarterback and threw for 239 yards and 3 scores with an interception. Rising’s status seems a little up in the air heading into a Week 4 conference clash with Oklahoma State that has seen the betting line shift in a major way twice already this week. Still, the Utes have 3 comfortable wins to open the season.

Clemson Tigers (+200)

Trend: ⬆️ 

With a Week 4 game against NC State, a home game against Stanford after it, and then back-to-back road games against a pair of teams that are a combined 1-5, Clemson has a chance to build some real momentum. The Tigers showed considerable offensive promise in a 66-20 beatdown of App State in Week 2, then hit an early bye week. If Clemson can carry that momentum over, there’s a chance the Tigers can go on a serious run.

Kansas State Wildcats (+250)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Kansas State has a 33.7% chance to make the CFP, according to ESPN’s FPI. The model projects 10 wins and 3 losses for the Wildcats. If that 10th win comes in the Big 12 title game, K-State would be in consideration for 1 of the top 4 seeds in the field. If the third loss is from the Big 12 title game, Kansas State would be much less safe. Will the Big 12 be a multi-bid league in 2024? Kansas has a decent win over Tulane and a home victory over an Arizona team that looks less than impressive. The Wildcats won’t face UCF or Utah in the regular season, and most of their big games come at home.

LSU Tigers (+300)

Trend: ⬇️

LSU beat South Carolina on the road to open SEC play in the win column, but the game wasn’t without controversy. The Tigers were down 17-0 and then 24-10 before Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers exited with an injury. South Carolina also had a pick-6 taken off the board late in the fourth quarter that might have otherwise doomed the Tigers. But coach Brian Kelly praised his team’s resilience afterward and now LSU has a chance to take a 4-1 record into a home date with Ole Miss on Oct. 12.

Liberty Flames (+340)

Trend: no change 

Liberty beat UTEP 28-10 to move to 3-0 on the season and extend its winning streak in conference games to 10. Since joining the CUSA ahead of the 2022 season, the Flames haven’t lost a conference game. They’ll host AAC foe East Carolina on Saturday.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+360)

Trend: no change

The Irish responded to an out-of-nowhere home loss to Northern Illinois with an out-of-nowhere road romp of Purdue. Notre Dame ran for 362 yards to beat the brakes off the Boilermakers in their own house, 66-7.

Boise State Broncos (+360)

Trend: no change

Boise State went into a bye after a hard-fought loss at Oregon in Week 2. The Broncos return to action on Saturday against FCS Portland State.

Memphis Tigers (+360)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️

Memphis went into Doak Walker Stadium and handed Florida State a third consecutive loss to begin its season. Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan threw multiple touchdown passes for the 40th consecutive game in his career, leading the Tigers to a defining win in a quest for a potential Playoff bid. Now 3-0, Memphis faces Navy on the road in Week 4 before closing out September with a home game against lowly Middle Tennessee State. They don’t face a team currently ranked higher than 70th in SP+.

Louisville Cardinals (+400)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Louisville has smacked around Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to open its season. After a bye, the Cards host Georgia Tech this Saturday and then they hit the road to face Notre Dame. We’re about to learn whether Jeff Brohm’s group can contend for another ACC title game berth.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+400)

Trend: ⬆️

A week after doing everything wrong in a win over Arkansas, Oklahoma State rolled Tulsa on the road for a comfortable 45-10 win. Still, there are issues that need sorting out with the Pokes. Mainly, their inability to get Ollie Gordon II rolling has been a troubling trend to begin the season. Gordon had just 41 yards on 17 carries in the Week 3 win. The Cowboys will need him in top form against Utah in Week 4.

Texas A&M Aggies (+450)

Trend: no change

Texas A&M arguably picked up 2 wins this past Saturday. The Aggies blasted Florida in The Swamp. And Notre Dame bounced right back from its loss to look like a machine. A&M needs Notre Dame to be CFP-worthy to have an argument for its own conclusion. The Aggies don’t face Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, or Tennessee. They do have Missouri and Texas on the schedule, though.

UCF Knights (+500)

Trend: ⬆️

Through 3 weeks, the Knights are the team FPI views most favorably in the Big 12. After notching a major win on the road at TCU, UCF currently sits 3-0 on the season. FPI gives the program a 36.7% chance to make the CFP and a 29.9% chance to win the Big 12 — both top marks among league peers.

Michigan Wolverines (+600)

Trend: no change

Michigan beat Arkansas State at home 28-18, but its starting quarterback threw 3 interceptions and its star tight end left the game with an injury. The Wolverines are pivoting to Alex Orji as the starter for Saturday’s home game against USC. Michigan went just 2-4 during the COVID season, but the program hasn’t gone 2-2 through the first 4 weeks of a normal season since 2014.

Oklahoma Sooners (+700)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️

Oklahoma beat Tulane by more than Kansas State did the week prior, but no one seems pleased with the Sooners’ 3-0 start. The offense hasn’t yet gotten on track. There’s no time like the present, with Tennessee coming to town in Week 4. The Vols will be the first of 5 top-10 teams the Sooners are set to face this season.