The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 9:
- Derek: 52-37-1
- Ethan: 48-41-1
- Paul: 45-44-1
- Spenser: 41-48-1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 3 Penn State
Spenser Davis: I’ve been high on this Penn State team all year and I don’t see a truly elite statistical profile with the Buckeyes, so I’m taking the Nittany Lions here. The injury to Josh Simmons at left tackle has proven difficult for Ohio State to overcome so far and I think Abdul Carter is the type of pass rusher to really make Ohio State pay. PICK: Penn State
Paul Harvey: There are major injury concerns on both sides here. However, I think Ohio State’s o-line issues are more worrisome than Beau Pribula potentially starting for Penn State, especially considering Andy Kotelnicki will have some designed wrinkles in that contingency. Penn State also gets this one at home, so even if the Buckeyes win outright, I don’t see a way this one doesn’t come down to the final minutes of the game. PICK: Penn State
Derek Peterson: Penn State is the home team and I feel like I have a clearer understanding of what I’m going to get from both the Nittany Lions’ offensive and defensive lines. Ohio State has a massive advantage when it comes to skill talent, but as we saw in the Nebraska game, that doesn’t matter much if Ohio State can’t run the football. PICK: Penn State
Ethan Stone: This is obviously really, really tough. I’m not sure the Nittany Lions have made the jump, but the Buckeyes have problems this season, especially with the state of their O-line. In very tough cases like this I’ll go with the home team plus the points. PICK: Penn State
No. 19 Ole Miss (-7.5) at Arkansas
SD: Arkansas has been so volatile all season, but I’m taking the Razorbacks here mostly because Ole Miss has Georgia on deck. It’s a classic lookahead spot for the Rebels, who have yet to play their best game to this point in the year. PICK: Arkansas
PH: I’m not particularly high on Arkansas’s body of work, but I still have questions about Lane Kiffin at this point in the season. That being said, I think the Rebels know the game against Georgia means nothing with a letdown here. I don’t like this line by more than a TD. But I’ll take Ole Miss to barely get there. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: I’m taking the Hogs to give another contender a scare. PICK: Arkansas
ES: Arkansas is a good football team and it starts with Taylen Green under center. They beat Tennessee and danced with Texas A&M already this season. I think this will be at the very least within a touchdown, and there’s a real chance the Razorbacks pull off their 2nd top-25 win this season. Sorry y’all, I don’t buy the Rebels hype anymore. PICK: Arkansas
Duke at No. 5 Miami (-20.5)
SD: This game is notably a revenge spot for Duke coach Manny Diaz, who was unceremoniously ousted from his job as Miami’s head coach after the 2020 season. Diaz has Duke’s defense humming this season, but the Blue Devils haven’t been able to do much offensively vs. ACC-caliber opponents. I think Miami will roll here. PICK: Miami
PH: Duke’s only real shot here is to come up with some stops against Cam Ward. I don’t think that’s possible for the Blue Devils this season, but I’m high on Manny Diaz moving forward. PICK: Miami
DP: SMU turned the football over 6 times and still beat Duke by a point on the road, so I’m not sure there are many positives to take from that game. Duke’s other loss was a 10-point defeat at Georgia Tech where it gave up 412 yards of offense. Duke has actually been outgained in each of its last 4 games. I like Miami. PICK: Miami
ES: Cam Ward and the Hurricanes have struggled with competition much worse than Duke this season. The Blue Devils fell by just a point to an undefeated SMU team but will be in for a tough ride Saturday against the Hurricanes. Miami wins but Duke covers. PICK: Duke
No. 1 Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan
SD: I think Oregon may be just a touch overrated at the moment by the market after its last 2 results. Michigan will be at home and I think Davis Warren gives the Wolverines a chance to make this a competitive game. I’ll take the points. PICK: Michigan
PH: I don’t think Oregon is on any sort of upset alert, but I do see a path to this one being closer than 2 touchdowns. Travel components, a tough road venue and a 2-QB system could keep the Ducks just off-balance enough for Michigan to make a game of this one. PICK: Michigan
DP: Michigan stinks. Let’s just be clear about that. But I’ve gone on record multiple times now saying that if Oregon loses a game during the 2024 regular season, it’ll be here in Ann Arbor. Can Michigan actually pull that upset off? Oregon is really starting to play well and Michigan hasn’t done anything in recent weeks to inspire confidence. And that means the only reasons to pick Michigan (travel for Oregon, environment for Michigan) have nothing to do with Michigan’s actual football team. I no longer feel the way I did in the preseason. PICK: Oregon
ES: This will be Oregon’s toughest road game of the year to this point, as well as the farthest. Despite the fact I think the Wolverines are going to have real trouble scoring, I’m not expecting a spotless display from the Ducks. Michigan to cover, Ducks to win. PICK: Michigan
Texas Tech at No. 11 Iowa State (-13.5)
SD: I don’t like much of what I’ve been seeing out of Texas Tech lately. The Red Raiders got smoked by Baylor a couple of weeks ago and then blew a big lead against TCU last weekend. Texas Tech really struggles to defend the passing game, so I think the Cyclones could cover this number rather comfortably at home. PICK: Iowa State
PH: Texas Tech has been giving up points left and right. The Red Raiders have been able to put up points at times, but Iowa State at home strikes me as a different challenge. But even with that, I don’t think the Cyclones get this one done by 2 touchdowns. PICK: Texas Tech
DP: Tech has multiple turnovers in each of its last 3 games. The close games both featured 3 giveaways from the opponent. The blowout (Baylor) saw the Bears play turnover-free ball. Iowa State is among the cleanest teams in the country, has a run game that can punish Tech’s defense, and a defense that wins on early downs. PICK: Iowa State
ES: This line would not have covered for Iowa State in their past 2 matchups, both of which came against worse teams than the Red Raiders. I’ll take the visitors here. PICK: Texas Tech
No. 2 Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida
SD: Did you know Florida is ranked 21st in the post-Week 9 SP+ rankings? The Gators are underrated due to their impossible schedule, but they’ve played very well for several weeks in a row now. I don’t love backing a true freshman quarterback in a game of this magnitude, but I don’t want to lay the points with Georgia given that the Bulldogs have a trip to Oxford on deck. PICK: Florida
PH: Georgia is still winning games, but the Bulldogs have not been some massive juggernaut covering every game against a lesser opponent. Considering this is a rivalry game, don’t be shocked if Kirby Smart’s team plays another close one. PICK: Florida
DP: Florida has played well enough in recent weeks that Billy Napier might actually be coaching himself off the hot seat. Five touchdowns from Jadan Baugh and a “throw it downfield every time” kind of day from DJ Lagway led to a rout of Kentucky and some good vibes in the Florida locker room. If Napier lets Lagway play another all-or-nothing kind of game (not a bad idea against this Georgia secondary), Florida either gets the doors blown off or loses by a single score. With a trip to Ole Miss on deck, I think the classic “here comes Georgia” game happens next weekend, not this weekend. PICK: Florida
ES: I said it before the season, I think the Gators are the best 5-7 caliber team the sport has ever seen. They’ve played several tough games and put up good games against Texas A&M and especially Tennessee. I hate to be boring and go with my colleagues, but 2 touchdowns is just too much for me. PICK: Florida
No. 10 Texas A&M (-3) at South Carolina
SD: It’s been obscured because of how good South Carolina’s defense has been at generating turnovers, but this Gamecocks offense is really bad. Per Game on Paper, South Carolina’s offense ranks 106th nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play. Texas A&M has some quarterback issues to sort through, but I think the Aggies can cover this number on the road. PICK: Texas A&M
PH: Surely nothing can go wrong in a primetime game for an undefeated team at Williams-Brice Stadium, right? South Carolina has been a quality team for most of the season, but I’ve doubted the Aggies all season long. No longer, because it looks like Mike Elko was able to get the culture of this program turned around immediately. PICK: Texas A&M
DP: The Gamecocks do one thing really, really well, and I’m not sure that will matter much in this game if Marcel Reed is the guy to lead Texas A&M. Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart just bully opposing offensive linemen in pass-rush situations and the Gamecocks feast off bad throws from quarterbacks under duress. If Reed takes over for Conner Weigman, A&M will be running. And the Aggie defense can make life even more miserable for the South Carolina offense. PICK: Texas A&M
ES: If this line was Aggies –7.5 I’d roll with South Carolina here. The Gamecocks defense is so, so tough – one of the best in the country, and I mean that. But Elko has his squad playing inspired football. I think the magic at Williams-Brice runs out by a touchdown. PICK: Texas A&M
Louisville at No. 11 Clemson (-10)
SD: Clemson has been an absolute wrecking ball since Week 1. The problem is the Tigers haven’t played anyone with any sort of quality. We’ll see how things break from here on out, but it’s possible Clemson has not yet beaten a team that will be bowl-eligible this season. Clemson’s 5 ACC opponents so far have a combined 7 wins between them. I just think this is too many points for a Clemson team that hasn’t faced a competent team in 2 months. PICK: Louisville
PH: I’m still high on Jeff Brohm at Louisville, but he’s had trouble covering the number recently. On the flip side, I can’t believe I’m saying this but Clemson continues to look like the real deal in the ACC this season. I don’t see a let-up from the Tigers in this one. PICK: Clemson
DP: Bill Connelly, in his Week 10 preview, called Louisville a team that provides a “stiff challenge for a contender to overcome.” And I like that descriptor. The Cards have faced 3 top-end teams and lost all 3 of those games, each by a single score. They played Notre Dame to a 31-24 result on the road, played SMU to a 34-27 result at home, and played Miami to a thrilling 52-45 result several weeks ago. Each of Louisville’s last 5 games have all been decided by 7 points or less. Against a Clemson team that still has some questions that need to be answered, I’ll bank on the trend continuing. PICK: Louisville
ES: Louisville has yet to lose by 10 points this season, all while facing quality competition such as Notre Dame, SMU and Miami. Jeff Brohm gets his guys going for games against top-25 opponents, but I still think they’ll fall short in a close one. PICK: Louisville
Related: Fans who want to bet on the game can grab this DraftKings Kentucky bonus to score a bonus when they sign up.
USC (-2) at Washington
SD: This is a sneaky-fun matchup between a couple of 4-4 teams. Washington genuinely has one of the best pass defenses in the country this season. It will be fascinating to see if Lincoln Riley is able to break down that unit on Saturday night. I’m betting that he can. PICK: USC
PH: Lincoln Riley is 0-3 outright as a road favorite this season and it’s a position he’s traditionally underwhelmed in. PICK: Washington
DP: Lincoln Riley as a road favorite is a no-go for me. Props to the Trojans for getting right against Rutgers a week ago, but Washington on the road is a different challenge. PICK: Washington
ES: This one is basically a toss-up, and I’ll lean with the home team in that scenario. PICK: Washington
No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU (-7)
SD: I’m afraid this is where Pitt’s undefeated run comes to an end. The Panthers are off to a remarkable start this season, but Eli Holstein has been running a little hot lately. I’m also not scared off in the slightest by SMU’s narrow win over Duke last weekend – I think the Mustangs will take care of business at home here. PICK: SMU
PH: SMU and Pitt are a pair of feel-good stories in the ACC this season. Considering the stakes of the expanded Playoff, both teams will feel some pressure in this matchup. I lean in favor of the home team here, but I don’t think it gets blown out of the water. PICK: Pitt
DP: Eli. Holstein has been cleared to play in this game after leaving last week’s win over Syracuse in the fourth quarter. The unbeaten Panthers will have their starting quarterback. I like this to be another close game, something both of these teams should be comfortable with given the way their seasons have played out. Both quarterbacks put the ball in danger and both stop the run well enough. PICK: Pitt
ES: I love Pitt here. SMU doesn’t have the home environment to move the needle for me, and I think the Panthers and Mustangs are pretty tight as far as the matchup is concerned. SMU probably has the tougher defense, but I’ll take the Panthers with the points in a close game. PICK: Pitt
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
