The 3 Top College Football Week 0 Picks and Best Bets
The long wait is over with college football finally back this weekend. And with its return comes the opportunity to wager on all the action as the summer winds down and a full slate gets set to kick off next weekend. With a short five-game set in front of this weekend, we have compiled three favorite Week 0 bets to get this (betting) season started off right.
Below, let’s take a look our top college football Week 0 picks and best bets, complete with full analysis.
College Football Week 0 Picks and Best Bets
Just because there’s a short five-game schedule to open the season doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of opportunities to make some money. Without further ado, let’s jump into our top picks. Read on for full analysis and breakdowns on each of our Week 0 best bets.
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UCLA (-18) Will Get Out Fast Against Hawaii
Playing on the road is tough for any team, but for Hawaii, it holds the obvious added difficulty of an unavoidable trip to the mainland United States. This surely lends to the team’s poor 3-8 ATS record in non-conference away games since the 2014 season. It also helps explain why the Rainbow Warriors are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 road openers.
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Well, those ominous trends get accentuated this season as Hawaii is asked to head to the Rose Bowl and face Chip Kelly’s no-huddle, gimmicky offense that steals the life from the best of defenses when its clicking. Kelly’s group returns 10 starters on both offense and defense and the program has beaten Hawaii all three times they have met. That includes back in 2017 when the Bruins hosted the Warriors and defeated them 56-23 as a 24-point favorite.
Hawaii has not played a true road game since Nov. 14, 2020 when they went down 28-0 to San Diego State by halftime. They were outscored 65-17 in their last two true road games of 2020, both times as far shorter dogs than they find themselves in this one.
Expect UCLA to prove too much to handle.
Our Pick: UCLA -17.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -120)
| Week 0 Picks |
|---|
| UCLA -17.5 |
| FRESNO STATE -27.5 |
| UTEP/NMSU OVER 56.5 |
Back Fresno State to Win Big Over UConn
Randy Edsall’s UConn Huskies were one of two teams to opt out of the 2020 college football season, which was to be the program’s first in its return to the Independent ranks after leaving the AAC in 2019. One of the worst programs in the nation over the last few seasons has not played a football game since its 32-point loss to Temple in November of 2019.
That’s the reality facing a Huskies team that is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS all-time against Mountain West teams — one that has to fly to California to open their season. The last time UConn played a MWC team, Boise St. buried them in a 62-7 rout in 2018. This game’s spread may be the longest of any game this weekend, but it’s with good reason.
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After all, Fresno St. is 9-4-1 ATS out of conference since the 2017 season and has lost ATS just once in its last six home openers, including 66-0 and 79-13 victories as 32.5 and 22-point favorites, respectively. Fresno St. returns a dynamic offensive triumvirate in QB Jake Haener, RB Ronnie Rivers, and WR Jalen Cropper to pair with a defensive line that returns its top six players.
The Bulldogs’ defensive line was effective at rushing the quarterback last season and should frustrate a UConn quarterback committee that lacks a clear starter and will be trying to implement a less vanilla offense on the fly after such a long time away from game action.
UConn has lost 19 games by 28 or more points across its last four seasons of football and there’s little reason to believe the Huskies can stay within that threshold here against a well-coached Fresno St. team returning so much talent on both sides of the ball.
Our Pick: Fresno St. -27.5 (Caesars Sportsbook -110)
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Expect Plenty of Points in New Mexico St. vs. UTEP
Independents New Mexico St. host Texas-El Paso in the I-10 rivalry to open the 2021 campaign. Well, that is not entirely true, as NMSU, which went a year and 50 days without setting foot on a football field due to COVID-19, played two spring games against Tarleton St. and Dixie St.
Those two games were used to get the entire New Mexico St. roster some game action, produced 60 and 65 total points, respectively. NMSU returns just three total starters from its 2019 team, none of which are on the defensive side of the ball.
Little practice and two spring games can hardly be expected to ready a defense that allowed 40 or more points seven times two seasons ago.
That group allowed 41.0 points per game and the New Mexico St. offense has averaged 40.5 points per game against in its last four fall openers. The Aggies’ opponent, UTEP, last visited here in 2019, losing 44-35, the sixth time in the last eight head-to-head meetings that the game has gone over the total.
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The Miners went from the worst scoring team in the country in 2017 (11.8 points per game) to 23.0 points per game last season and return all 11 starters this fall. In fact, UTEP averaged 28.0 points per game over its final five games last season, all on the road. Six of the Miners’ last eight road games have gone over the total as have six straight away contests in which they were favored.
Conveniently, New Mexico St. has played seven of its last ten home games over the total. Also worth noting, NMSU has played eight of its last 10 over against Conference USA opponents, while UTEP has played four of its last five over the number against Independent foes.
Look for big plays and turnovers to lead to quick points for both teams in this one, sending yet another meeting over the posted total.
Our Pick: UTEP/NMSU Over 56.5 (BetMGM -108)
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