It feels just a touch different than last year.

In 2022, Georgia-Mizzou wasn’t expected to be a memorable game. Like nearly every time the Dawgs take the field, they were multi-touchdown favorites.

What played out was anything but a ho-hum day at the office for the defending champs. Mizzou jumped out to a double-digit lead in the first half and UGA went into the break without a touchdown. It took some second-half brilliance to rally back and finally take the lead with 4 minutes left. Georgia considered it a wake-up call to have such a difficult time putting away a 2-2 team.

This year, however, there’s no reason for UGA to sleep on Mizzou. The Tigers are off to their best start in a decade and at No. 12, they have their highest ranking ever in the Playoff ranking. Control of the SEC East is up for grabs on Saturday afternoon in Athens.

Does that mean an even better Mizzou team is destined for another 60-minute game?

Let’s dig into it:

1. How happy do you think Kirby Smart was with the first CFP rankings?

The word “ecstatic” comes to mind.

He got the exact scenario that he could’ve asked for. Not only did his squad not get that first No. 1 ranking — only 2 of the 9 initial No. 1 teams in the Playoff poll have gone on to win it all — but he also gets the benefit of Mizzou being at No. 12. That ranking for Mizzou is the program’s best in the Playoff rankings. For a Georgia team that’s looking to beef up that résumé with more quality wins, that was a welcome development.

But this is really about the internal motivation for Georgia. Last year, Smart’s team was ranked No. 3 in that initial Playoff rankings. It played that following game against No. 1 Tennessee like the selection committee spit directly in its face. Smart has a legitimate sell to his team that “they don’t think you’re the best in the country.”

As much as Georgia fans might’ve fought against the urge to be upset with not being No. 1, I can assure you that plenty of them saw the bigger picture about how it could motivate Smart’s squad.

2. The Luther Burden angle is fascinating

It’s not often that a 5-star recruit visits Georgia and then commits to another school a few days later. At least not under Smart. The fact that Burden opted to stay home at Mizzou instead of joining the 5-star factory in Athens spoke volumes about the job that Eli Drinkwitz did to recruit him.

So far for Burden, he’s been everything and more that Mizzou fans could’ve hoped for. After making an immediate impact as a starter in his true freshman season, he’s having an All-American sophomore season as the focal point of a much-improved Mizzou offense. Burden ranks in the top 6 in FBS in catches and receiving yards, and he leads the country in receiving yards out of the slot (via PFF).

That move to the slot after Dominic Lovett’s transfer to Georgia (more on that in a second) allowed him to take his game and Mizzou’s offense to the next level. Burden has only been held to fewer than 96 receiving yards on 1 occasion, and the Tigers are averaging 9 more points per game than they did last year.

It begs the question: Can Georgia contain Burden? After all, no receiver has hit the century mark against the Dawgs this season. They’ve only allowed an average of 43 receiving yards per game to the opposing team’s primary slot receiver, and UAB’s Amare Thomas is the lone primary slot receiver who scored a touchdown against them this year (it’s worth noting he was lined up on the outside). Former West Virginia transfer Tykee Smith has been brilliant on the back end of Georgia’s defense this season. He figures to see a healthy amount of Burden after allowing just 4.1 yards per target this season (H/T Jake Rowe).

It’ll be interesting to see if Mizzou opts to move Burden around the formation a bit more. He averages just 6 snaps per game at the outside receiver spot compared to 41 snaps in the slot. Could this be a game in which Burden is utilized more as a decoy while Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper get favorable matchups? It’s possible, though it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Tigers pull off the upset with a quiet day from Burden.

If Burden goes off yet again and Mizzou stuns Georgia, one would think a Biletnikoff Award could be in his future. Either way, his transformation in the slot has been one of the most exciting things to watch this year. It’s wild to think that only happened because of the departure of Lovett.

Speaking of Lovett …

3. Don’t forget about the Dominic Lovett angle

Lovett, not Burden, is the one facing his former team. After he led the Tigers in receiving last year, Lovett opted to join a more crowded receiver room in Athens. After a slower start, Lovett has been great in a Brock Bowers-less Georgia offense. His past 2 games were both personal bests since his offseason transfer.

Smart said that Lovett’s understanding of the offense is growing. Clearly, Carson Beck’s trust in Lovett is growing, too. He has 13 catches for 155 yards and a score in the past 2 games, including a 55-yard catch that showcased his elite ability to find the soft spot in zone coverage.

A repeat of the Florida performance from Lovett and Ladd McConkey would go a long way for Georgia as Beck continues to lean more on his non-Bowers options. That also includes Oscar Delp, who had a highlight reel grab in his first game as Georgia’s starter at the position.

It’s unfair to say this is a revenge game for Lovett because he opted for the transfer portal, but it’s fair to say there should be a little extra ammo on both sides of his matchup.

4. Last year, Mizzou made this a 60-minute game by ____________.

“Holding Georgia to field goals in the red zone instead of touchdowns.”

Holding an offense to 3 points instead of 7 is a smart strategy. How’s that for analysis?

Mizzou held the Dawgs without a touchdown for the first 50 minutes of last year’s game. There was frustration on the Georgia side that it moved the ball so well, yet for whatever reason, it took until the 4th quarter to finally punch one in. The Dawgs finished the game with 481 yards of offense, but on 4 consecutive drives into the Mizzou red zone, UGA settled for field goals. That’s what prevented a 13-0 Mizzou lead from becoming a 28-13 Mizzou deficit by the middle of the 3rd quarter.

This year, that’ll still be no small feat. Georgia has had more red-zone trips (46) than anybody in America. It’s worth noting that the Dawgs are only No. 64 in red-zone touchdown percentage (63%), which is also probably a byproduct of the high attempts. Mizzou is in the top 1/3 in FBS in opposing red-zone touchdown percentage, though it’ll probably take an even better effort to turn Saturday into a 60-minute game.

Offensively for Mizzou, obviously, there’ll be a major sense of urgency for Drinkwitz’s squad to not leave any points on the board. Mizzou’s offense actually leads FBS with a 97% red-zone scoring percentage with 34 scores on 35 opportunities.

It’s cliché, but the path to a Mizzou upset lies in the red area.

5. We should probably talk a little more about UGA’s home dominance in the 2020s

In games at Sanford Stadium since the start of 2020, Georgia:

  • A) Is 20-0
  • B) Allowed 10.7 points/game
  • C) Scored 40.7 points/game
  • D) Has won all but 1 game by double digits
  • E) All the above

It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”

And by the way, that 1 home game in the 2020s that wasn’t won by double digits was with a COVID-reduced crowd against Mississippi State in 2020. Just so you don’t think that’s a skewed stat because of the amount of nonconference games that the Dawgs host, consider this: In 6 home games against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup, Georgia won by an average score of 36-11. That’s dominance.

Mizzou is at least fortunate that this game isn’t at night. The last time the Dawgs lost a night game at Sanford Stadium was in 2009. Of course, the last time the Dawgs lost any game at Sanford Stadium was against South Carolina in 2019.

Taking down Goliath, AKA Georgia, would be an accomplishment of epic proportions.

And a prediction … Georgia 38, Mizzou 14

I believe that by the time that ball is kicked Saturday, Smart will have his team convinced of 3 things.

One is that Georgia was actually No. 12 in the Playoff poll and Mizzou came in at No. 2, not the other way around. Smart will also probably have his team convinced that Burden wasn’t impressed with Sanford Stadium, which was why he didn’t commit to the Dawgs. And just for good measure, I’m gonna assume that Smart will have his team believing that it lost that game in Columbia last year, and that this is a revenge game for the Dawgs.

Knowing that, how can you pick against Georgia? Like, the team that hasn’t lost a regular-season game in 3 years?

As much as I respect the team that Mizzou has become, I can’t sell myself that massive of an upset. I won’t say it’s impossible that the Tigers shock the world, but for a team that’s just trying to win its first matchup of ranked teams in the Playoff era, do I think that finally happens against the unbeaten, 2-time defending champs? I don’t.

By day’s end, we’ll have yet another reminder that we’re witnessing a run for the ages.