I’m going to lead this column with a disclaimer, and it’s important that you read and sign it.

I, (your name here), do hereby affirm that I will take full responsibility for my actions following the consumption of this column. I release David Mitchell (the columnist) from offering any defense to significant others, parents, or financial partners for money lost as a result of this discussion.

Agreed? Good. So, let’s talk about quarterback Stetson Bennett’s Heisman Trophy odds…

Look, I get it. Bennett does not look like a Heisman Trophy winner. Quite frankly, I’ve never seen anyone with a more appropriate nickname. Karl Malone earned the nickname “The Mailman” because he always delivered. Bennett embodies that moniker because he looks more likely to be outrunning a family’s German Shepherd than an All-American defensive end.

And yet, I scan this year’s Heisman odds and I have to wonder – is Bennett the best bang for your buck on the market in the 2022 field?

As of this writing, Bennett sits at +10000 in Heisman Trophy odds from our friends at FanDuel. Let’s put that into context.

  • He’s tied with Bo Nix.
  • He’s behind 9 other SEC quarterbacks and tied with a couple who haven’t even been announced as starters.
  • He’s tied with or barely ahead of quarterbacks who won’t sniff the top 5 this season – Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec, UNLV’s Jake Haener, and Florida International’s Tyler Shough.

In other words, Vegas trusts quarterbacks whose teams had a losing record a year ago more than they do the senior signal-caller for the defending national champions. Say what you will about Bennett, but that’s a level of disrespect that simply can’t be ignored.

So, here’s what we’re going to do. I’m not going to tell you that Bennett is going to win the Heisman. I’m not even going to tell you that you should cash this month’s paycheck and put it all on red and black at your nearest sportsbook. But I am going to give you three reasons why Stetson Bennett – the former walk-on who didn’t have a job at this point a year ago – might just offer the best return on investment of any player in the 2022 Heisman Trophy field.

Todd Monken’s play-calling

Before I get into Heisman history and why Bennett fits nicely into potential winners, I want to start with reasons that he might just be a really good quarterback period. Monken’s familiarity with his offensive leader – and Bennett’s familiarity with his play-caller – should be one of the primary reasons for optimism for this Georgia offense and Bennett in particular.

Consider: Monken, to our knowledge, entered the 2021 season with JT Daniels as his QB1. Hindsight might lead us to consider the very real possibility that neither Monken nor head coach Kirby Smart was sold on Daniels, but I think we can all realistically agree that the team’s offense was expected to revolve around him as of Sept. 4, 2021.

Once Daniels, who is now at West Virginia and also at +10000, got banged up early in the season, a void for the starting position opened. Initially, fans were led to believe that Carson Beck would be the next man up. He was more highly recruited and seemed to be progressing. But Bennett earned the job, and Georgia fans were subjected to 10 weeks of speculation over whether he was the real starting quarterback or whether Daniels would take back over.

Does this sound like a tenable situation for an offensive coordinator?

Yeah, didn’t think so. And yet Monken made the most of it. Sure, there was that SEC Championship hiccup, but given weeks to prepare before the College Football Playoff, he figured out how to put his pint-sized passer into power positions. Bennett responded with MVP performances against Michigan (20-of-30 for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns) and Alabama (17-of-26 for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns).

Is that to say that they have cracked the code? Maybe not. But with Bennett the undisputed QB1 entering 2022, you can count on Monken have a much better sense of how to maximize his quarterback’s abilities.

That TE room, though…

If there’s one thing that gives me reason to believe that Bennett is going to put up the type of numbers required of a Heisman Trophy winner, it’s a group of players that is arguably the greatest collection at their position in college football history.

That’s not hyperbole.

As a freshman, Brock Bowers led the team with 882 yards and 13 touchdowns receiving. Darnell Washington, while he doesn’t sport the gaudy numbers of his young counterpart, is considered by NFL scouts to be one of the most enticing players at his position. Arik Gilbert, who was a freshman phenom for LSU two seasons ago before transferring to Georgia and sitting out for personal reasons a year ago, might be just as good as Bowers.

In other words, Bennett has weapons on weapons on weapons.

All you have to do to get a sense of how these threats can beat you is watch Bowers catch that short run-pass option that developed into a 15-yard touchdown pass against Alabama in the CFP title game. Consider that next to the 89-yard touchdown reception he had earlier in the season against UAB on which he reached a top speed of 21.9 miles per hour.

Washington’s career stats at UGA are pedestrian, but it speaks to all the other things he does that the Georgia coaches still value him so highly. He blocks well, and you’ll never find a better mismatch inside the 10-yard line than the 6-7 junior. His season got off to a tough start because of injury in 2021, but he could prove to be just as dangerous as Bowers and Gilbert by season’s end.

Bennett will put up some passing numbers this season, and you can count on these guys being among the biggest reasons why.

It’s a matter of history

OK, I’ve given you reasons that Bennett is going to have a solid year. Now, let’s talk about why that matters.

The biggest thing that stands out to me when I look at the Heisman Trophy odds is how many players don’t fit the profile. Are they good players? Of course. Could they have great seasons? Without a doubt. But will they win the Heisman? History tells us that there’s only a handful of guys every year who will meet the criteria.

Let me explain.

  • Since 2000, 18-of-22 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks.
  • Since 2000, 18-of-22 Heisman winners have played for teams that finished in the top 5.
  • Since 2000, 14-of-22 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks on teams that finished in the top 5.

Do you see where I’m going with this?

Already, you can start to narrow down the real contenders for the award. With respect to Jurkovec, Haener and Shough, there isn’t a chance that they fit the profile established among the past 22 Heisman winners.

In reality, you can throw out this list of Heisman odds and you consider only a select few players.

You should pick a quarterback. Sure, players like Bijan Robinson and TreVeyon Henderson are great running backs and might give it a run, but history says it’s unlikely. Pick a quarterback, and narrow that list of 45 down to 33. Three of those 33 are the second in a dual quarterback system, so you can probably go ahead and drop that list to 30.

Of those 30, they almost certainly need to play for a top-5 team – i.e. a team that has a shot at the College Football Playoff at season’s end. Realistically, that narrows that list of players down to about seven:

  • CJ Stroud, Ohio State
  • Bryce Young, Alabama
  • Caleb Williams, USC
  • DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson
  • Quinn Ewers, Texas
  • Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma
  • Stetson Bennett, Georgia

Odds aren’t so bad anymore, are they?

Here’s the thing: Stetson Bennett is almost assuredly not going to win the Heisman. He is battling astronomical odds and years of preconceived notions.

But his surrounding cast and his rapport with his offensive coordinator should offer some confidence about his 2022 performance. The numbers should reflect that. If Georgia is a CFP contender, as we assume it will be, then you can assume Stetson Bennett is among the very few players who meet the recent Heisman criteria.

Shocking as it may be, he may have a better than realistic shot at heading to New York …

But if your wife asks, I picked CJ Stroud.