It’s been many years since Kentucky had to manage positive expectations heading into a season of SEC play. But 2016 was the Wildcats’ first seven-win season since 2009, and their first four-win season in SEC play since that same year.

After a dismal start with a collapse at home to Southern Miss and a shellacking after Florida, Kentucky got off the mat and rallied into the SEC race, eventually finishing in a three-way tie for second place behind Florida.

Between an up-for-grabs East and Kentucky’s emergence as a power running team that played surprisingly well in the clutch, UK finds itself in unfamiliar preseason territory, sometimes picked to finish as high as second in the East and mentioned frequently as a “dark horse” contender for the division title.

For his part, Mark Stoops downplayed UK’s climb in the SEC on Media Day, stating, “we’re not concerned with the rest of the league.” Perhaps so, but Kentucky is concerned with winning, which will mean improving against league foes. Stoops himself later acknowledged, “we’re getting in a position to compete for the East.”

“How close we are to contending? You never know,” Stoops said. “You guys covered this league for a while. You’ve seen — I remember a few years back (2013), I believe the team that won (the West) didn’t win a league game the year before. We are not concerned about the rest of the league.

“I know this about the league, the league’s not backing up. Nobody we’re playing is backing up. We’re certainly not backing up. We’re worried about us getting better to put us in a position to contend each and every week.”

If Kentucky’s 2017 season plays out that narrative, one of the keys will be making headway against the East’s traditional “Big Three”— Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. It’s a daunting task, as UK is 6-84 against the trio in the past three decades — with five of those wins coming against Georgia.

While Kentucky could lose to all three and still put together an 8-4 or 9-3 campaign that would constitute a step up in the SEC, a bigger goal might be knocking off at least one of the Big Three for the first time since 2011, when they closed the season with a 10-7 victory over Tennessee.

If Kentucky can do that, then the hype was real. If not, well, the 7-5, Music City Bowl ceiling from the Rich Brooks years is alive and well.

But who? And how?

Florida

The case for upset: Kentucky has played Florida well recently. Last season’s beating aside, UK lost to the Gators in 2014 and 2015 by six and five points, respectively. The 2014 game in the Swamp was a triple-overtime loss, highlighted by an officiating gaffe that allowed Florida to extend the game. Last year’s 564-yard performance aside, Florida no longer fields the kind of offenses that crushed Kentucky 73-7 and 65-0 in the mid-1990s. If Kentucky can control the pace of the game with its power running attack, they could lull the Gators into a close game and put them away late.

The case against upset: The last win for Kentucky in this series was in 1986. Stoops commented Wednesday that his players were “well aware” of the streak, and admitted, “we don’t hide from that, but it’s not something I talk about.”

Florida has dominated Kentucky early in these games, and often puts them away early. In the past eight games, Florida has won the first quarter 125-13. That includes a game in the Joker Phillips era when UK made Trey Burton look like Jerry Rice. Florida has exploited one-on-one matchups in this series and jumped ahead of UK early. If they do so again, their streak will continue.

Georgia

The case for upset: Of these three teams, Kentucky plays Georgia best. The past three home games for UK in the series included a five-point loss (to a 2-10 team) and a three-point loss. In their last game at Athens (where this year’s game will be), UK trailed 10-3 at the half. For that matter, Kentucky won at Georgia in 2009, and beat them at home in 2006.

Also, while the Bulldogs have the most talent in the East, Kirby Smart is still very much learning how to coach. Last year, UGA outgained Kentucky 460-308, but still needed a last second field goal to win the game. Kentucky also matches up with Georgia between road games at Auburn and at Georgia Tech, and could catch the Bulldogs napping.

The case against upset: Put in the tape of Kentucky’s 2014 game against the Bulldogs. Mark Stoops’ 5-4 team was still hoping for a bowl, and Georgia absolutely dominated, 63-31, as UK did not make a single stop on defense. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel rushed for 254 yards. That was three years ago. Take that same UGA duo and put them at home in their final conference game of the season, with the division title very possibly on the line? It’s not a good matchup.

Tennessee

The case for upset: 443. That’s how many yards Kentucky rushed for last season in Knoxville — the second-highest single-game total in program history. Kentucky gained 8.1 yards per carry, and though RB Boom Williams went pro, QB Stephen Johnson (who had a 75-yard run), bruiser Benny Snell and speedy Sihiem King are all back.

Three home games against UT ago, Kentucky ended a nearly three decade losing streak. This year, against a UT team that lost its best passer, best running back, best receiver, best defensive lineman, best linebacker and best defensive back, it’s not hard to see a path to another upset.

Tennessee will be playing an inexperienced QB, and if Kentucky can pull ahead in Lexington, it might be the second win over Tennessee in the past 33 years.

The case against upset: 376. That’s how many yards Tennessee ran for last year. Butch Jones’ offenses have owned Kentucky’s defense in this series. In the past three meetings, Tennessee has scored 50, 52 and 49 points.

That’s how Kentucky turned a near all-time high rushing game into a two-touchdown loss.

Tennessee’s offenses has run through Kentucky’s defense like a sword in butter. Kentucky’s 2011 win was 10-7. We’re not saying UK has to hold the Vols to one touchdown, but Stoops has gone 13-10 at Kentucky in games when the defense holds opponents under 30 points, and 6-20 when they haven’t.

So consider 30 a reasonable goal — but one that’s a long way from 50, 52 or 49.