Here it is again. Another crossroads for Kentucky basketball. Since a 2015 Final Four loss to Wisconsin, John Calipari’s Wildcats have seemingly been at one endless crossroads. Contender or pretender? Team still throwing more talent into the NBA than any other, or a team that hasn’t seen the second week of an NCAA Tournament since 2019? Unfortunately, the answer over the past few years usually has been “both.”

Saturday’s game against No. 5 Tennessee (15-5, 5-2) presents yet another opportunity for the No. 10 Wildcats (15-5, 5-3) to establish some sort of identity. But beyond being winners or losers, unlucky or under-coached, the Wildcats literally have to figure out exactly who they are after dropping 3 of their past 6 games.

Is Kentucky the hot-shooting team that’s third in the NCAA in scoring and 6th in 3-point percentage? Or is it the team that scored 62 and 63 points in back-to-back games against South Carolina and Arkansas? (Both).

Is Kentucky a defensive team that grinds out a win over Arkansas, forced North Carolina into 17 turnovers in a win, and gave Kansas all it could handle in November? Or the team that’s 13th in the SEC in scoring defense, and allows the most made 3-pointers per game? (Both).

Injuries and inexperience

Frankly, even more fundamental than the coming and going nature of specific traits is the issue of what Kentucky’s actual lineup will look like. Going into the Tennessee game, Kentucky has yet to field its full roster for any game. Saturday probably won’t change that, as standout guard DJ Wagner is nursing an ankle injury, which caused him to miss the Florida game.

Incidentally, Kentucky is 0-2 without Wagner. Usual wing starter Justin Edwards has some sort of undisclosed issue that kept him out against Florida and may not allow him to face the Vols. Adou Thiero just returned from a back issue which caused him to miss several games because of “general soreness.” Big men Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso missed significant portions of the season due to injuries. Croatian big man Zvonimir Ivisic was held out by the NCAA until mid-January. Point guard Rob Dillingham missed the Arkansas game. Of Kentucky’s top 10 players, only 3 have been healthy and available all season, while 4 have missed significant portions of the year.

Of course, that lack of collective experience might not matter at all schools. But of Kentucky’s top 10 players, 6 are freshmen and another is a grad transfer new to the program. That lack of significant experience is a genuine issue. Edwards has frequently looked lost, and Calipari seems perplexed by the uneven development of Bradshaw and Ivisic. Wagner is the kind of player who can have a great shooting night (8-for-12 against Georgia) or a terrible one (1-for-12 against Kansas). Every game feels like a reinvention for UK.

Tennessee troubling for ‘Cats

Meanwhile, Kentucky will face arguably the league’s most talented team Saturday in Tennessee, which will be motivated even more after a loss to South Carolina on Tuesday. The Vols have been everything UK hasn’t — stingy on defense (opponents are shooting 37.5%, 3rd-worst in the NCAA), solid on the glass (42nd in the NCAA in rebounding), and leaving no doubt who their alpha dog is (likely SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht, who has topped 30 points in 4 of his past 5 games). And while Knecht is new to UT, veterans like Santiago Vescovi, Zakai Zeigler, Jonas Aidoo, and Josiah-Jordan James are not.

Tennessee also holds a 10-9 advantage in the series with Kentucky since Calipari’s 2015 Final Four nightmare. The Vols have won in Lexington 3 times during that run, and have also won their past 2 post-season matchups with UK.

Saturday’s stakes

Saturday looks increasingly like another crossroads. Make a defensive stand, hold off the Vols, right the ship, and a 3 or 4 seed in March could still be in UK’s future. Which is the kind of future that could easily feature at least, say, an Elite Eight run, if not a Final Four return.

Or things could move another way. If Knecht lights up the Wildcats, it could start a domino trend.

With games at UT and Auburn, matchups with Alabama and Gonzaga forthcoming, Kentucky could slide to double-digit regular season losses and a 7 or 8 seed. Which could end up with another long offseason following a Sweet 16 without the Wildcats.