Not that long ago, a 7-6 season was cause for celebration in Lexington. But with a pair of 10-win campaigns in the previous 4 seasons, Mark Stoops has upped expectations in Kentucky. The Wildcats have reached a bowl game every season since 2015. On what would figure to be an upward-trending season, here are 5 areas where UK will be better, and 5 where the Wildcats will be worse.

5 areas where UK will improve

1. Offensive line play

OK, what was a massive team strength since 2016 became a massive weakness. How much so? Consider Kentucky’s per-carry rushing yards by season since 2016: 5.4, 4.3, 4.8, 6.3, 5.0, 5.2 and 3.3. Ouch. If that’s not clear enough, how about the number of sacks by season: 28, 31, 28, 17, 17, 25, 47. Pretty clearly, 1 of these seasons is not like the others. Kentucky’s offense was pretty putrid, and the Big Blue Wall turned into a Big Blue Sieve. A year of development, and additions like super senior tackle Marques Cox and USC transfer Courtland Ford, can’t help but improve the Wildcats’ offensive front.

2. The running game in general

Yes, as noted above, there were some problems up front. But it was more than poor blocking that dropped UK from 200 rushing yards per game in 2021 to 116 in 2022. Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed the season’s first 4 games due to an off-field suspension that probably prevented him from becoming UK’s all-time leading rusher. It probably prevented him from ever getting terribly comfortable on the field as well. JuTahn McClain was the receiving threat, Kavosiey Smoke was the burner and La’Vell Wright was the promising youngster … but none of them quite delivered. Smoke transferred and C-Rod moved on to the NFL, but Vandy transfer Ray Davis brings the lunch-pail mentality that should help the Wildcats post at least 170 rushing yards per game in 2023.

3. Rushing the passer

At the same time that Kentucky’s O-line nearly took a season off, the Wildcats’ defensive front didn’t have a great season getting to the quarterback. After mustering 38 and 33 sacks in 2018 and ’19, UK has taken a step back, managing just 20 sacks in 13 games a season ago. Admittedly, Brad White’s defense has still gotten enough pressure to stick around in games. But UK returns a wealth of front-7 talent who can help get the quarterback on the ground more in 2023 — led by J.J. Weaver. Surely, UK can reach at least 25-30 sacks this season.

4. Offensive scheme

This should probably be item No. 1, but watching Rich Scangarello and last year’s UK offense try to figure things out was like the worst arranged marriage in history — neither party seemed to want to be there, but each knew it was supposed to try to do something. Liam Coen isn’t like that. The quick overhaul he did on the UK offense in 2021 shows that he gets scheming for his playmakers and working with a new QB — 2 things that will be key again. Retaining Scangarello could have cost UK freshman WR standouts Barion Brown or Dane Key via the transfer portal. Instead, rehiring Coen will probably mean losing them … to the NFL after next season. But 2023 should be pretty fun first.

5. Special teams

UK had a special teams nightmare in 2023. Between missed kicks, poor snaps and botched holds, the placekicking game was horrifying. Punting was scarcely better, with the season’s highlight being a penalty drawn by Colin Goodfellow during a Mizzou punt block that likely would have lost that game had it not been nullified by the flag. Goodfellow apparently broke his leg on the play. Brown showed flashes in the kick return game, but for a team that often plays close games, improvement in special teams is essential — and likely — in 2023.

5 areas where UK will decline

1. Short-yardage running

Yes, the line and ground game were awful, but Rodriguez was a master at turning 3rd and 2 into a 1st down — something that traditionally hasn’t been a UK football strength. Rodriguez had 38 3rd and 1- to 3-yards-to-go carries in his UK career. He converted 26 of them into 1st downs. UK’s other rushers were 8-for-17 on those conversion carries last year. Davis can help, but UK may well need to diversify a bit on 3rd and short in 2023.

2. Deep ball plays

Devin Leary seems to be a razor-sharp game manager, but he might not be the big-play threat that Will Levis was. Last season, UK and Levis connected on a dozen 40-yard-plus passes, which was 4th best in the SEC. Meanwhile, Leary hit just 2 such passes in his half-season before injury at N.C. State. Leary will likely compensate by avoiding negative plays and big risks, hopefully lessening the need for over-the-top bombing. But the big throw is not quite as common in his playbook as it was in Levis’.

3. Pass defense

Kentucky didn’t have a ton of big names in its secondary a year ago, but the Wildcats were 2nd in the SEC in passing yards allowed per game at just 170.8 and 3rd in opposing QB rating. In the previous 2 years, UK allowed 225 and 219 passing yards per game. With Carrington Valentine, Keidron Smith and Tyrell Ajian all gone, Kentucky figures to give up more yardage here. Admittedly, it’s a high-ceiling group of replacements, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a few growing pains in pass coverage.

4. QB depth

Squeamish Wildcats fans might turn away, because it’s geting serious here. A season ago, UK was without Levis against South Carolina and in its bowl game against Iowa. The results were not pretty. Kentucky scored 14 points total between the 2 games and looked pretty lost passing the football. How could it get worse? Well, Leary did miss half the season last year with a torn pectoral muscle. If he’s down for any length of time, Kentucky is again back to Kaiya Sheron and Destin Wade at quarterback. While a year has doubtlessly improved both players, Kentucky’s hopes for a special season are very much tied to a healthy quarterback, and as Terry Wilson Jr. and Drew Barker have shown UK fans in recent seasons, that can crumble in a hurry.

5. The late-season schedule

Don’t think it matters? This could be the most important decline for UK because it’s pretty much unavoidable. Kentucky’s first 7 games of the season leave the Wildcats in position to solidly be 5-2 or 6-1 heaing into their bye week. The rest of the way? Ouch. Home vs. Tennessee, at Mississippi State, home vs. Bama, at South Carolina and at Louisville. That could be an 0-5 run, and it takes an optimist to even see 3-2 in that bunch. Kentucky still has some struggles in depth. A year ago, the Wildcats stumbled home despite playing Mizzou and Vandy in the season’s final third. This year, UK better start hot and hang on late.