When Mark Stoops was hired at Kentucky, to paraphrase Billy Beane in Moneyball, there were the good teams in the SEC, then there were the bad teams, then there was 25 pounds of crap, and then there was Kentucky. Which has made Stoops’ climb into the bad teams, then into the not-bad teams, then into the good teams an impressive one.

But as good as Kentucky has been — and there’s really no argument against the fact that the past 4 1/2 seasons, with UK going a combined 38-19, have been the best in decades in Lexington — the big catch has still eluded Stoops.

UK has beaten 8 ranked teams under Stoops. The highest rated at the time of the game was last season’s win over then-No. 10 Florida. But a 6-7 Gators team certainly represents more sizzle than steak as an upset victim. Stoops’ biggest win might be the 2016 upset of Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson (the Cardinals were No. 11 heading into that game). But even a 9-win Louisville team with a Heisman winner isn’t quite the big fish.

Against top-5 teams, Stoops is 0-6 at Kentucky. Enter No. 3 Tennessee, which is also Stoops’ other significant weakness.

Going 2-8 against the Vols is kind of a sore spot for Stoops and Kentucky. Yes, there have been many 10-year periods when a 2-8 run against UT would have qualified as material for celebration. But these haven’t been your grandfather’s UT Vols. Not only wasn’t General Neyland walking through the door, but he may have been turning over in his grave. And yet the Vols, including twice as an underdog (2018 and 2019), have managed to hold off the Wildcats.

The knock on Stoops’ run is that he has benefitted from a fair amount of fool’s gold in the SEC East. For most of the past decade, it has been Georgia and everybody else. Florida has had some decent teams. Even in struggles, Tennessee has had a couple of reasonable squads. But it has been one step forward and two back through the tenures of Will Muschamp, Derek Dooley, Dan Mullen, Barry Odom, Derek Mason, etc.

This season hasn’t done much to defeat that argument. Kentucky capitalized on a win over a Florida team that is deeply embedded in rebuilding and was overhyped off an opening win over Utah. Mississippi State had looked good, but Kentucky seems to have tripped the imposter switch, because the Bulldogs were more like puppies against Alabama the week after their UK loss. Meanwhile, Kentucky shot itself in the foot against an Ole Miss team that was similarly floating on a marshmallow cloud of bad wins, and then lost to a South Carolina team that has been surprisingly gritty, but isn’t exactly the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here’s the chance. Tennessee is good. Really, really good. Historically good on offense. Hendon Hooker is having his Lamar Jackson kind of season (admittedly, with less scrambling and more throwing, but still). The Vols have a ton of tough receivers, and they absolutely owned Kentucky a year ago, picking up 316 yards on just 20 pass attempts. Kentucky’s defense got lit up in a 45-42 loss.

But Kentucky could turn this around. The Wildcats are 3rd in the SEC in passing yardage allowed, and 2nd in pass defense efficiency. A year ago, the Wildcats gave up 20 touchdowns through the air and managed just 9 interceptions. This year, it’s 4 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. Kentucky has given up the fewest 10-plus-yard passing plays in the SEC, and it trails only Georgia for the fewest 20-plus-yard passing plays.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky offense, in a season in which it has stumbled all over itself, finally showed the power running game against Mississippi State that had been missing. If the Wildcats can replicate those 239 rushing yards — and if they can replicate allowing only 1 sack on QB Will Levis, as they did last week — UK could have its big upset.

What would the upset mean? Maybe that Kentucky is better than good. Maybe that Stoops’ climb to 2nd in the SEC East isn’t fool’s gold and didn’t just come off the back of weak teams. Maybe those teams were weak — in part — because Kentucky imposed its will on them.

All in all, Kentucky has a chance to make a statement on Saturday night. And a coach who was looking up at the Vanderbilts and Missouris of the world back in 2013 can catch a really, really big upset.