Kentucky football: Final thoughts and a prediction on showdown with Ole Miss

No. 7 Kentucky and No. 14 Ole Miss do battle in a major SEC tilt on Saturday afternoon in Oxford.

How major?

Well, it’s the first time a ranked Wildcats team and a ranked Rebels team will face each other since 1958.

Both teams struggled last week, both teams enter the game undefeated at 4-0, and with Tennessee off this week the winner has a standing claim on being the No. 3 team in the SEC.

Here’s a rundown on the Wildcats, their previous meeting with the Rebels and a prediction ahead of the matchup:

Running back situation

Kentucky enters the game ranked 13th in the SEC in rushing. The Wildcats also enter the game awaiting the return of running back Chris Rodriguez, who will suit up for the first time since Kentucky’s Citrus Bowl win over Iowa on New Year’s Day.

Rodriguez’s prior meeting with Lane Kiffin’s Rebels went well in 2020 — at the time, the 133 yards Rodriguez gained on 17 carries was his UK career best. Then, on his way to 1,379 rushing yards last year, Rodriguez topped that mark on 3 occasions. In 2021, Kentucky was 8-1 when Rodriguez rushed for 100 or more yards and 2-2 when he didn’t.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss allowed just 215 yards rushing in its first 3 games this season, but the Rebels gave up 262 rushing yards to Tulsa last week.

On the other sideline, Ole Miss’ talented stable of running backs might well be a few players short. Early indications are that 3rd-string back Ulysses Bentley IV (14 carries, 75 yards, 4 TDs) will likely be out, and 2nd-leading rusher Zach Evans (59 carries, 365 yards, 4 TDs) might be limited or out because of a hip pointer.

Last week’s woes

Kentucky fans expressed some concern over the 31-23 win over Northern Illinois. As a 26.5-point favorite, the Wildcats struggled to a 14-14 halftime tie and led 31-14 with 8:46 to play before hanging on in the final minutes.

It wasn’t a banner day for the Rebels, either. A 21-point favorite over Tulsa, Ole Miss took a 35-14 lead just before halftime … and then hung on for a 35-27 win.

Not only did the teams have similar weeks, but their respective opponents really were pretty much even. Northern Illinois traveled to Tulsa in Week 2 and Tulsa, a 6.5-point favorite, won 38-35.

A tale of 2 halves

Even aside from last week, the Rebels have definitely been a different team in each half this season. Ole Miss has scored 108 points combined in the 1st half of their games but only 56 points in the second half. Meanwhile, Kentucky’s defense has allowed 40 points in the first half of its games but has given up just 12 points in the second half.

Familiar faces

Kiffin has fared well against Kentucky, a trend that continued in his only Ole Miss matchup with the Wildcats, a 42-41 overtime win in the first game in Lexington without fans after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In that game, Kiffin’s Rebels put up 459 total yards.

Kentucky’s plans for slowing down or stopping Kiffin might center around a couple of defenders who are pretty familiar with Ole Miss’ system. Linebacker Jacquez Jones transferred to Kentucky before the 2021 season and was UK’s leading tackler last season with 86 stops. Jones had 7 tackles against the Wildcats in that 2020 Rebels victory.

So far this season he’s again UK’s leading tackler with 26 stops. Jones was joined this offseason by fellow transfer Keidron Smith, who had 223 tackles and 21 passes broken up in his 4 seasons in Oxford. Smith had 5 tackles against UK in the 2020 game, and this season Smith has 7 tackles and 3 passes broken up, including a 65-yard pick-6 in the win over Florida.

The prediction

Ole Miss’ propensity for fast starts offensively doesn’t necessarily meld well with a Kentucky team that both hasn’t started quickly and will be reintroducing Rodriguez — and any consistent attempt at a ground game — back into the offense. Meanwhile, Kentucky hasn’t allowed 200 rushing yards in a game since 2020. That streak might be in jeopardy, particularly if Evans is somewhere close to full strength.

Kentucky’s opportunity in this game will come in the 2nd half. Ole Miss hasn’t adjusted well, and Kentucky’s 3rd-quarter performances have been sharp. The Wildcats have the premier quarterback in this matchup, and they’re counting on Rodriguez and the combination of Ole Miss’ injuries to reduce the difference between the 2 sets of running backs. Rodriguez won’t be completely sharp, but he’ll give UK enough of a threat to keep the Rebels honest.

Ole Miss takes a 20-10 halftime lead, but Will Levis leads the Wildcats back late, mounting a 2-minute drive that ends the game with a Matt Ruffolo field-goal try. Two years ago, in an almost empty Kroger Field, Ruffolo missed a field goal and shanked an extra point in overtime that was Ole Miss’ margin in that 42-41 win.

Ruffolo’s revenge will be sweet, as his 47-yard field goal is the margin in a 34-31 Kentucky victory.