Kentucky vs. Oakland preview: Player prop bet picks

Kentucky (23-9) takes on Oakland (23-11) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday.

The Wildcats earned a No. 3 seed in the field on the strength of 6 Quad 1 wins this season and a 7-3 record on the road. Down the closing stretch of the regular season, few teams were playing as well as John Calipari’s group. But a 1-and-done showing at the SEC Tournament was a shock to the system. Now, Kentucky is looking to make it past the opening weekend of the NCAA Tourney since the 2018-19 season.

Oakland grabbed a 14-seed and the Horizon League’s auto-bid after going 15-5 against the league to win the regular-season title and then going 3-for-3 in the conference tournament to sweep.

3 Kentucky vs. 14 Oakland (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)

Spread: Kentucky -13.5 (via BetMGM)
Total: 161.5 points (via BetMGM)

The Wildcats closed out the regular season in furious fashion. They got healthy and the freshmen grew up with each passing game. Kentucky ripped off 5 straight wins, beginning with a 22-point beatdown of Alabama and culminating with a 4-point win at Tennessee. Few were playing better. But that momentum came to a screeching halt in the SEC Tournament quarters when Texas A&M shredded Kentucky’s defense for a 97-87 win.

Wade Taylor IV scored 32 points. Tyrece Radford added 23. A&M shot 46% from the field and 43% from 3. It won the boards, won the paint, and made Kentucky pay for 14 turnovers.

UK’s postseason fears were realized right away; the defense wasn’t where it needed to be and Kentucky paid for it.

Oakland might not be able to make Kentucky hurt, but it’ll certainly make the Cats work on the defensive end. The Grizzlies rank 307th in average time of possession on offense, per KenPom. They average 66.7 possessions a game.

Kentucky is 18-14 against the spread this season while Oakland is 21-13. Baylor is the only 3-seed favored by more in their first-round matchup than the Wildcats. Kentucky residents can bet on this game by utilizing one of Saturday Down South’s top recommended Kentucky sportsbooks.

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here are some advanced metrics from KenPom to consider:

Opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency

Kentucky: 122.7 (5th)
Oakland: 108.6 (133rd)

Opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency

Kentucky: 102.7 (109th)
Oakland: 105.8 (166th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Kentucky: 72.7 (9th)
Oakland: 66.7 possessions (231st)

With that, here are 3 player props for the game:

Kentucky G Reed Sheppard over 2.5 3-pointers (+124 via DraftKings)

When Kentucky was winding down the regular season, Sheppard showed he could go nuclear if a few shots fell. Against Mississippi State, he had 32 and 4 made triples. Against Tennessee, he knocked down 7 triples for 27 points. In the lone SEC Tournament game, he knocked down 3 triples. Oakland opponents get 40% of their shots from the 3-point line; Sheppard will have plenty of opportunities to fire away.

Kentucky G Rob Dillingham over 18.5 points + assists (+100 via FanDuel)

Dillingham has cleared this threshold in 4 of his last 6 games. Interestingly, Oakland also gives up the highest assist rate on made shots to opponents of any Division I team in college basketball (62.4%).

Oakland F Trey Townsend under 17.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)

A fourth-year wing, Townsend has the ability to go off on opponents. He had 38 points in the Horizon League Tournament championship game. But this prop would have hit in 18 of his appearances this season and nearly all of his work is done inside the arc. (He has only taken 26 3s all year.) Expect Kentucky — an excellent shot-blocking team — to swarm him when he gets the ball.