Coming off the worst year in the history of the program and the NCAA Tournament cancellation the year before, Kentucky is ready to get back to The Big Dance.

Or are they?

The 26-7 Wildcats come in off a disappointing SEC Tournament semifinal loss to Tennessee. Kentucky has been up and down throughout 2022, sometimes looking like a Final Four team, sometimes limping through difficult games short-handed. It could be argued that Kentucky hasn’t played a complete game since beating Florida on Feb. 12. If the best version of the Wildcats shows up, look out. If the worst version shows up, they won’t be around long.

The Wildcats, the No. 2 seed in the East Region, will open play against No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s on Thursday in Indianapolis. The Peacocks had a 19-11 season in the MAAC. At Christmas, Saint Peter’s was 3-6 and seemed likely to be headed nowhere. But they ended the season with a 7-game winning streak, winning the conference title with a 60-54 victory over Monmouth.

Coach Shaheen Holloway’s squad is a grinding group. They average 66.9 points per game, which is 287th in the NCAA. That said, they hold opponents to 61.8 points per game, which is 18th in the NCAA. Opponents shoot just 38.3% (5th in the NCAA) and 29.3% from 3 (13th in the NCAA). Two potential issues for the Peacocks — they’re foul-prone, averaging 19.5 fouls per game (23rd-most) and poor at free throw shooting at 68.3%, which is 288th in the NCAA.

Saint Peter’s top scorer is junior guard Daryl Banks, who averages 11 points per game. The team’s top 6 scorers are 5 juniors and a senior. The Peacocks will be at a size disadvantage, as they only have 2 active players taller than 6-7, and only one taller than 6-8, and that player, 6-10 forward Oumar Diahame, averages 2.2 points and 2.3 rebounds per game.

To be blunt, the Peacocks lack any quality nonconference wins. They lost by 14 to Providence and by 21 to St. John’s. When opponents shoot 42% against the Peacocks, they went 7-1. Likewise, teams that reached 70 points went 6-1. This will be Saint Peter’s 4th NCAA Tournament appearance — their best performance was an 8-point loss to Texas in 1991 as a No. 12 seed.

All of which is to say: Kentucky should not have any trouble on Thursday. Oscar Tshiebwe may set a rebounding record, and Kentucky’s guards will try to erase lackluster memories of poor recent shooting performances. An early forecast is Kentucky by 20.

A 2nd-round matchup with in-state foe Murray State looms on Saturday (assuming they get past No. 10-seed San Francisco). Kentucky has never played Murray State, but the fighting Ja Morants (they are actually the Racers) are 30-2. Murray ran roughshod over so-so competition, but they did beat Memphis by 2 in December and lost to Auburn by 13. Auburn’s length bothered the Racers, as they outrebounded Murray 43-27. That is probably Kentucky’s best play.

If Kentucky can hold off the in-state foe and chalk holds, No. 3 seed Purdue or No. 6 seed Texas would loom in the round of 16. Purdue, which lost in the Big Ten Tournament championship game, has the size and scoring punch to bother Kentucky. The Boilermakers are 4th in the NCAA in shooting percentage at 49.5% for the season. Keeping Purdue honest from the perimeter would be key in that game — all 6 of the Boilermakers’ losses came in games where they made fewer than 9 3-point shots. Texas would be a more mercurial foe, but also a tough defensive one (allowing 59.6 points per game, 6th in the NCAA).

How far can Kentucky go? Murray State would be a genuinely tough 2nd-round game. Purdue would be a game where Kentucky’s guards need to be very sharp or the Wildcats would go home. Purdue looks like a tougher matchup than No. 1 seed Baylor in the Elite 8 for Kentucky. The Bears are prone to offensive slumps not unlike those the Wildcats have hit.

For an overall prediction, here’s the hedge on the whole enterprise: If Kentucky can get past Purdue in the Round of 16, they’ll go the Final Four. But that is an if which is nearly as big as 7-4 Purdue center Zach Edey. It’s a tough road for the Wildcats, but in a tournament where chaos will likely reign, who knows how any of it will actually play out?