SDS Roundtable: Kentucky's over/under is 6.5 wins. How many games will the Cats win in 2020?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: Kentucky has been to a bowl game in 4 consecutive years. The program record is 5. Can the Wildcats match it? The over/under win projection doesn’t leave a lot of room for error, but are you really going to bet against Mark Stoops at this point?
A bit of background …
The chip is still there. Maybe as big as ever.
Kentucky just completed its best 4-year stretch since the Bear Bryant era and some aren’t convinced the program has turned the corner.
The Cats’ over/under win projection is a modest 6.5. That’s a lone bad bounce from missing out on a bowl. Fortunately, Mark Stoops uses disrespect to fuel the program. So how many games will Kentucky win in 2020? That’s something we’ve been discussing for a while.
Jon Cooper, SDS co-founder
I’m done betting against Kentucky and Mark Stoops. The Cats coaching staff has added talent on the roster to the point of competing for the SEC East, and Terry Wilson is coming back. The last time Kentucky didn’t win 7 games in a season? You’d have to go back to 2015. It’s been a remarkable few years for UK football.
Stoops and Co. will find a way to get 7 wins in 2020. Eastern Michigan, Kent State, South Carolina, Eastern Illinois, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi State and Louisville are all winnable games.
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
Over, over, over. Did I say I liked the “over” enough? No? OK, give me the “over.”
Give me the Cats to rise above expectations yet again. For a team coming off an 8-win season that ranks No. 25 in percentage of returning production (via ESPN’s Bill Connelly), I’m all over the idea of Kentucky getting back to 8 wins. I understand Lynn Bowden is gone. You know who isn’t? Nearly that entire offensive line who blocked for him, as well as a backfield that was all sorts of underrated. And defensively, the Cats return 78% of their production. That’s from a unit that quietly finished No. 14 in scoring in 2019.
The other thing working in Kentucky’s favor is the return of Terry Wilson. He was poised for a major improvement in Year 2 as a starter until he suffered that devastating season-ending injury in September. His breakout year can still happen in 2020.
I look at that schedule and I only see 3 games in which Kentucky will be a somewhat significant underdog: at Florida, at Auburn and vs. Georgia. There’s nobody else who should be able to run right over Mark Stoops’ squad. That includes a Louisville team that I’m high on.
I feel like sooner or later, Vegas has to adjust to Kentucky having a much higher floor than what it once had.
Neil Blackmon, Florida columnist
Mark Stoops is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Power 5. He gets no respect.
What he has built at Kentucky — a more talented roster than they’ve ever had and a team that is physical and doesn’t beat itself — is marvelous. Betting the under here means you are doubting a staff that won 8 games with a single-wing offense and a wide receiver playing quarterback a season ago. That’s a silly bet.
The schedule is menacing, which prevents a real run at 9 wins but there are 7 or 8 Ws on the schedule to be sure, depending on what happens in late October with a tough road trip to Missouri and then a home tilt against Tennessee (the Vols have had Kentucky’s number for a century). As long as they split those, a 6-win season is more or less out of play.
With Terry Wilson back under center, good playmaking talent and an offensive line that returns more starts than any group in the SEC, this is going to be a good offensive football team. Stoops will coax enough out of them on defense to get to at least 7 wins.
Michael Bratton, News editor
This is the easiest pick on the board, pick the over while you can.
Kentucky will have a much-improved defense in 2020 and after having virtually no quarterback depth to speak of last season (and still winning 8 games), the Wildcats will be loaded at the position if Joey Gatewood is eligible after transferring in from Auburn.
The SEC remains a line of scrimmage league and Kentucky should be great on both sides of the ball in the trenches.
I wouldn’t rule out Kentucky hitting the over before November.
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
I think 6.5 wins as the over/under is a bit disrespectful to Kentucky. I see 7 wins without much trouble. Then there’s a winnable game at Mizzou and a toss-up game at Tennessee.
This could be a 9-win team, even after losing Lynn Bowden Jr. and some other key pieces. However, a lot will depend on how healthy QB Terry Wilson looks in his return from an ACL injury.
Still, I believe in Mark Stoops, so this seems like a pretty easy over for me.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
I think Kentucky will win 7 games, possibly 8, in the regular season, but I’m not sure it’s as much of a slam dunk as some of my colleagues.
Kentucky’s margin is typically thin and that won’t change in 2020.
Even during its breakthrough, 10-win season in 2018, the Cats were just +14 in point differential against the SEC. Last year, they finished in the red and the only 3 teams they beat went a combined 4-22 in the league.
Most expect the offense to be better in 2020, if for no other reason than Terry Wilson will be back under center. It’ll be different, certainly, but Lynn Bowden led the Cats to 35+ points in each of the final 4 games. The 2018 team with Wilson never did that. Heck, that was the longest such 35-point streak since the 2007 team hit that mark in the first 5 games.
In other words, don’t just automatically assume it will be better. Bowden was spectacular.
As much love as Stoops as received, rightfully so in most cases, the one area the Cats need to improve most is on the road. They still struggle. They are 5-7 in road SEC games the past 3 seasons — and 2 of those victories were at Vanderbilt.
This year, they’re at Florida and Auburn early. But then they travel to Missouri and Tennessee. Can they win in Knoxville? Stoops was in high school the last time Kentucky won at Tennessee (1984).
Ultimately, the rest of the schedule is quite manageable and sets up nicely to make a run at 8 wins. But if Mississippi State’s K.J. Costello goes nuts and throws for 450 yards, or Louisville’s Micale Cunningham atones for last season’s abysmal showing in Lexington, there could be a surprise loss or 2 that could derail the feel-good movement.
PREVIOUSLY
- LSU’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Tigers win?
- Alabama’s over/under is 10.5 wins. How many games will Tide win?
- Auburn’s over/under is 8.5 wins. How many games will Tigers win?
- Texas A&M’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Aggies win?
- Who wins more games in 2020: Ole Miss or Mississippi State?
- Florida’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Gators win?
- Georgia’s over/under is 10.5 wins. How many games will Dawgs win?
- Tennessee’s over/under is 7.5 wins. How many games will Vols win?
Know what? Easy over
Gotta go with the over here. Stoops is really building something up there in Kentucky.
EMU: W
@ Florida: L
Kent St: W
S. Car: W
@Auburn: W – this is my big upset pick. Cats will be more competitive in this game than people think, especially if there are fewer fans.
E. IL: W
Vandy: W
@ Mizzou: W
@UT: L – gonna pick the Vols in this game until we prove we can beat them.
MSU: W
UGA: L
@ UL: W
9-3
I have 8-4 with a L @Auburn, but the same for all the other games
That would be an upset. I think auburn wins it but won’t be surprised if it’s a one possession game.
I mostly agree with you and see 8 wins. Gus has shown a penchant for the occasional upset. Tall order but we did it to them two years ago @Aub.
I think Cats take care of MissSt, SCar and Mizzou.
Plus they always play Florida tough in the early season.
Vols and Cats will be another slugfest, probably low scoring game decided by a TD or less.
O V E R E A S Y
But what about cheerleaders?????
It’s not overly difficult to see them winning 7 games, 8 or 9 might be a stretch but 7 and getting the over here should be achievable.
Over. 7-5 seems like a lock and they get South Carolina in Lexington, which could get them to 8-4. They’ve pretty much had SC’s number in recent years, save for last year in Columbia.
They’re more talented than Missouri and I think Drinkwitz is going to need two or three years to get to whatever his ceiling at Mizzou is.
I don’t think they beat Tennessee in Knoxville but it is a winnable slugfest. If they somehow find a way, that’s 9-3.
Yes, they are more talented now and they have played the Gators tough in recent years, but now that they will have the Gators’ undivided attention moving forward, after the 2018 game, the streak resumes.
Not sure people realize how good UK’s defense will be next year. Surprised to see the offense getting more love.
Maybe Eight(8) Wins…Florida, Auburn, Tennessee should be Losses…Georgia too, but they could steal one game. Stoops is recruiting well in Ohio which brings some players that Ohio State did not recruit…but still good players to be coached-up. Mark Stoops has Accomplished more than anyone expected at Kentucky. Keep It Going.
EMU: W
@Florida: L
Kent St: W
S.Car: L
@Auburn: L
E.IL: W
Vandy: W
@Mizz: W
@UT: L
MSU: W
UGA: L
@UL: W
7-5 my call, a solid over bet. Would edge on the side of 8-4, even, with a win agst UT or SC, not both though ;)
I say win against South Carolina and lose to Missouri. It is a home game for Missouri. South Carolina lost to Missouri last year and lost to newly hired head coach that was at Appalachian State last year and beat South Carolina! That is not a good way to put Missouri loses to Kentucky and Kentucky loses to South Carolina? I do not see Muschamp winning more than 6 games this fall!
I hear you but SC did beat UK last yr so we’re all just talking our books.. and that’s higher than vegas thinks (5.5) so i guess you’ll be taking the over with me. Preciate the support
This debate is why I think Mizzou, SC, and Kentucky are the most interesting teams in the east. You really never know how these teams are going to do, and the games are very competitive.
I’m an undoubted homer optimist, 9-3 is the floor for this team. One of, if not the best OL in the conference, 3 talented returning RBs, Terry’s return with an ability to throw the ball this year with WRs that are better than people think. They’ll be hungry after last year’s total abandon of the passing game. A loaded DL, 2 deep across the board. The conference’s top returning edge in sacks, Watson, 7 in 2019. Josh Allen had 7 as a junior, not to say Watson is Allen, but he’s good. Wright is very capable on the other side. Square, Oats, and Davis in the middle. I think Square is an all SEC caliber linebacker. A deep and talented secondary with the return of safety Robinson from injury, and the addition of Joseph from LSU who was a top 50 recruit. I think the defense has 8 pros on it. Until proven otherwise Georgia and Tennessee are losses, and I think we split with Auburn and Florida. Finally playing some real football in Lexington! What Stoops has done is truly remarkable.
a 9-3 FLOOR is rich. thank you for that haha
I disclaimed I was a homer optimist. Haha, we’ll see how it all plays out. Lookin forward to it.
You did preface w that.. however 9 is the Ceiling and idk how big ur house is.
I too am looking fwd to it, curious to see UK QB this yr too
You think Tennessee is a loss but you will split with Auburn and Florida? I think of those three, Tennessee is your best shot at a win.
Man, we always lay an egg vs. Tennessee. Like I said it’s a super optimistic take, I feel like the Kentucky game is a game Auburn might lose just cause they’re so unpredictable and we’ll be competitive. And the Florida game has been a toss up for 3 years now. I agree though, Tennessee is a winnable game and they are all 3 certainly loseable.
I’m pretty set on an 8-4 expectation, but a big factor in that changing might be limited capacity crowds, even if it is early on. If Florida and Auburn are only able to put 20-30k fans in the stands I feel more confident about both of those being 1 score games (Florida probably will be anyways with how the series has been recently).
Either way, 6.5 is a joke line because the general sporting world hasn’t realized that Kentucky is decent at football yet
Kentucky’s best chance to beat Florida in the future is in Lexington at night with the crowd going nuts. They caught the Gators taking them for granted in 2018, combined with some key injuries and suspensions. But that loss was really one of the major turning points in Mullen’s tenure so far because it allowed him to get the team to buy in more completely.
I don’t understand the line. I guess Vegas figures Kentucky will split on MSU and Louisville instead of winning both. I think anybody who knows football respects what Stoops has done at Kentucky. Kentucky is a physical football team now.
Taking us for granted is really a joke fan thing to say and likely not what happened. Maybe the fans and the media were still writing the game off because of the streak, but 5 of the last 6 UK-UF games have been down to the end of the 4th quarter 1 possession games (well technically the last two weren’t 1 possession because of late junk TDs). The game this year will be tight as well, and I’d be shocked if Florida covers the 14 or whatever point spread it is.
And like I said with 20-30k fans, even the home field advantage goes way down, and the games even closer.
I agree with Nashville. My impression as I was watching the 2018 game was that the Gators’ players were expecting us to do something to beat ourselves instead of playing to win. By the time they realized what was happening it was too late. I also had the impression that playing together as a ‘team’ was about the only thing they needed to do to be really good. After this season (assuming we have one) I would like to see that game played a little later in the season. I could get a better read on where the Cats are if we played them in early October instead of early September.
Over
Along with UF, easiet over-under that Vegas put out. UK doesn’t get respect. Wilson won’t be the best in the SEC but you could make an argument for him against pretty much every other QB besides Trask Mac Jones and maybe Jamie Newman. Talented o-line and rb’s return. Defense should have a really good year. My only question personnel-wise is who steps up at WR? Stoops has earned my respect as a coach and UK will give teams their best. UGA feels like an L, and i’m leaning that way with Auburn as well. But I personally think UF and UT are possibly winnable (?). Kentucky has played Florida well recently and may have 3 in a row if not for some questionable playcalling. UT I do not know if I believe in the passing game to win against a good defense like UK. I think the Wildcats go 8-4, and i think they beat one of UT/Aub/UF/UGA but lose the other three and lose to SC or Miss St. Still, by UK standards, a good year and probably a spot in a Florida bowl game if they can do that. Floor is 7-5 and ceiling is 10-2
Everyone on the site has picked the over. I’m not going to be the first to say otherwise. I agree with many that believe this is an eight win team. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they won more.
I also would bet the pretty consensus “over”. Mostly because I think Kentucky is significantly better than South Carolina and Missouri. I expect the UT vs Kentucky game to be another defensive struggle. It probably comes down to who avoids the huge mistake.
(Side note: If you want to go back and watch a low-key great game, go back and watch last year’s UT-Kentucky game. That game had everything. Most people probably didn’t see it because it was at night and both teams weren’t that good, but it was some great “Old School” football, and another example of why being a Tennessee fan is bad for your heart)
One topic I think all or almost all posters agree with is Stoops is a heck of a good coach and has done a tremendous job at Ky. Its hard to say on some games due to the QB question. Nobody knows how Wilson will perform and he lost a lot of playing time experience that he sorely needed. Also don’t know if Gatewood is eligible.
EMU – W
Flo – L
Kent St – W
Sc – Toss up
Auburn -L
E, ILL -W
Vandy -W
Mizzou – toss up (if this was in Lexington its a W to me.
Vols – L (what can I say Im a homer)
MSU – toss up but lean W (leach is the wild card here with Costello at QB)
UGA – my upset special – W
UL – Toss up
To address Chris Wright’s point: Kentucky might again be at an even point differential in SEC play. That should mean going 4-4 in the conference. Considering that the non-conference schedule features three easy wins and one team that might be the second-best in its conference but still has a wide talent gap to reach UK, that should be 7-8 easy.
I think I’d pick 9-3. This is a better team than the one in 2018 where Terry Wilson played through a knee injury and the offense sputtered most of the year. The defense should be excellent (I hate to say this because I loved him when he wasn’t twisting knees, but Kash Daniel graduating is addition by subtraction) and the secondary, which was supposed to be a weak point last year, was very good and should have a couple of key additions (hello, LSU transfer Kelvin Joseph).
The schedule will appear to be tougher, but I don’t think it’s too bad. They’ll be significant underdogs to UF, AU, and UGA: I really think they’ll win one. I’m not sold on UGA this year in particular (especially if they’ve been knocked out the division race by late November), but I also think that UF might again overlook how tough this team will be. They’ll lose another, probably to UT because that’s what they do (though they certainly could win it). I don’t think Mizzou, SC, Vandy will be very good and two are at home and the other is nominally on the road. MSU is a bit of a wildcard with Leach, but I do think he’ll need a couple of years to fully round that team into form and that one is at home as well (though also after what will be a tough UT game). I see 7-5 as a target floor, 9-3 as a great year and anything beyond that as just incredible.
No East team is going to look past Kentucky these days.
But most if not all will look pass Missouri this year!
Probably not the coaching staffs and team but, alas, the fans, probably yes.
Definitely over.
Over. And I still think what Stoops did to salvage the season in 2019 was one of the better coaching jobs I’ve ever seen.
Really? But UGA won 10 games last year and many said it was a disappointment year for UGA!
Kentucky isn’t Georgia. The programs are at very different stages.
UGA is not an excuse for failures since 1980!
How far does Missouri have to go back for their most recent national title?
First of all, UGA won 12 games last year.
Secondly, I’m not really sure what you find wrong with Boxster’s comment. Or what it has to do with UGA and their 12 win, Division crown, Sugar Bowl win vs a top 10 ten season.
Not sure how Stoops gets comparisons to Rodney Dangerfield when he’s consistently rated above all coaches not named Saban/Smart/Orgeron/Jimbo/Malzahn. I’d take the over. Also-not sure you’d call the UT game a tossup given their team of the century got demolished in Knoxville against a far inferior team. This year’s matchup is again at Knoxville so at current, UT should be a slight favorite.
Tennessee is more talented and has a well coached roster that has bought in. The game is in Knoxville. It’s fair to say the game is winnable by Kentucky, but it’s not a toss-up. Tennessee should win.
This year is probably the only year you can say the roster is better than UK’s. To me, the only mistake Stoops has made is allowing his roster to go without a serviceable qb last season. Even then, they made chicken salad out of chicken s$&@. I think he and Gran did ok with what they had to scheme around the lack of a passing qb.
UT is definitely not more talented than UK! UK manhandled UT in the trenches last year. We return arguably the best ol in the Country(PFF). UK 302 yards rushing to 83 FOR UT. TOP Was 41 to 19. There is only 2 teams more talented in the east this year. UF and GA. Now will UK beat UT in Knoxville. NO. As one other poster noted nobody in the east will overlook UK. The surprise win for UK this year will be at Auburn. 6.5 wins. Take the over.
Manhandled-yet they lost-odd
But read again-you’re arguing my point-UK had a better roster two years ago (when UT crushed the all century team) and last season. This season the classes have caught up and likely surpassed UK
Vols won in the trenches when we couldn’t get in on 1st and 4 to win the game. Have to give credit.
“Consistently” is false. Last year Stoops was in all of the coach power rankings in the 30s or 40s, behind Muschamp, Odom, and Moorhead, because the 10 win season was seen as a lucky aberration for a 6 win at best program. Don’t forget that Kentucky was predictably picked to finish 6th in the East last year by the media.
The coaching rankings have caught up with reality, Vegas hasn’t (indicated by this and the early UK-UL line being UL -4.5, despite the last two games being a 46 and 32 point UK blowouts). We will see if the media will pick UK where they reasonably belong this year at 4th.
That’s fair. I’m skewed from reading this site and SEC heavy coverage sites that understand that Stoops has built a solid program based upon inside-out built teams.
Ill take the under due to the decline is real!
Everyone can’t you see the huge drop off and many are saying over! There is a reason it is set at 6.5 than 7.5 or even 8.5. Get real I am seeing 6 wins
When was the last time Mizzoo beat us? Like 6 years ago? And now you’ve got a new coach to rebuild under.
The reason Vegas sets its line where it does is to get an even amount of bets on each side, and sports fans in general still don’t respect UK football so the line is set low. Mizzoo will once again be one of UK’s 7-9 wins next season.
Got to give losses somewhere! Cannot say over to all teams if the win-loss ratio does not add up if most people picked to go over for each team so far. I mean come on! Someone got to take some of the losses. Missouri will have no more than 4 losses.
Mizzou will lose time UGA, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi State. That’s four losses before you even get to South Carolina or Kentucky. Honestly it wouldn’t even surprise me if Arkansas beat Mizzou at then end of the year.
People thinking UK gets us haven’t seen our record against them since we became cross divsion rivals
Outside of when you had Mullen basically even. And you don’t have Mullen anymore.
I was just getting into the Halloween aspect of that a few years back until they moved the game. I will say that I think Stoops is better than some of the bigger name coaches in the conference. Something to be said for doing more with less.
This has to be the over. I was thinking it should have been set at 7.5 instead of 6.5 so it is an easy bet.
I can’t remember his name, but does KY still have the WR who is about 6’8″/240 LBs and had a good game against UF last year? Dude was a beast.
No, unfortunately Ahmad Wagner (aka Ahmad “Flagner”) is no longer around. We have some talented but unproven WRs on the roster, and that really is the main question mark with this team (along with Terry Wilson’s health and Joey Gatewood’s eligibility).
Thanks for the info. Glad that we won’t have to deal with that guy again this year. He made Marco Wilson look like a grammar school kid.
Stoops got his starting QB hurt last year and won eight games with a converted wide receiver who was shaky at best on any pass beyond ten yards.
Over.
EMU – Win
FL – Loss. I wouldn’t touch this games line even if it was 1.5. UK has became a nightmare to play this early in the season. I like our chances
at home in this one but I wouldn’t be surprised to see UK pull an
upset here.
Kent St – Win
SC – Win. If the game was in WB id still probably pick UK. I think the rosters are fairly balanced so I’m going with the coaching
advantage here.
Auburn -Win This just feels like a noon game. It has that UT vs Auburn
feel from a few years ago to it. I think Auburn will be the
better team but this kinda game is what makes CFB so great.
East ILL- Win
Vandy – Win
Mizzou – Win. I just dont see this game being competitive, Mizzou’s staff is gonna need a few years to get something going.
Vols –Toss Up. Hard game to call here. I’m just a little more
worried about UT’s offense against a really good defense. At this point, I’m leaning UK. However, if there is no fan limitations and UT packs Neyland, I’d go UT all day. Pruitt has gotten the best of Stoops so far, this could easily be one of the more entertaining under the radar games of 2020. UK having a bye before this certainly helps though.
MSU – Toss up. I know its in Lexington but, UK will probably come into this a little beaten up after a physical TN game. I think MSU could be sitting at 4-5 and needing a big time win to get bowl eligible for the year. Close game 28 to 24 feel to it. Either way I think UK splits this and the TN game.
UGA – Loss, too big of a talent mismatch.
UL – Win. I dont know much about returning talent for UL, if this game was in Lexington it would be much easier to call. I’m hesitantly going with UK, UL is probably a year or two away.
Ceiling 10-2, floor is 7-5, I’m gonna guess UK goes 9-3, and has a tremendous year. Over all day.
Good analysis. I thought I was the only non-Cats fan to have them at 9 wins. I think they could have between 8-10 wins. I say 9 and wouldn’t be shocked if they got 10.
Seem like this line should move up a point and then maybe we’d see some difference of opinion here.
7.
OVER!
WAY OVER!
The amount of disrespect UK still gets after the past few seasons is pretty ridiculous.