LEXINGTON — Remember the column here a week ago, in which I projected Kentucky’s path to the NCAA title, a path that included Davidson, Arizona, Virginia, Cincinnati, North Carolina, and Villanova?

Kentucky’s path is ongoing, but with the exception of Villanova, all of those squads that I (and most people, for that matter) deemed as likely opponents are gone. And with those upsets, there went Kentucky’s hopes of being a spunky, under-the-radar Tournament sleeper. The Wildcats are favored by five or so points for tonight’s Sweet 16 matchup with Kansas State, and would likely be favored by a similar margin in an Elite Eight matchup against Nevada or Loyola-Chicago.

So it’s a Big Blue cakewalk to the Final Four. Right? Wrong.

Sure, we were imaginative enough to craft a path that featured Kentucky beating an NCAA Murderer’s Row. But here’s the opposite approach. These are the traps that the Wildcats must avoid Thursday—and then maybe Saturday. In survive-and-advance mode, there are no sure things. If you don’t believe us, ask Virginia … or Arizona, Cincy, UNC, or plenty of other teams.

1. Cats can’t slow down — or turn the ball over too much

Many worried about a potential UK/Virginia game. The Cavaliers, after all, were defensive stalwarts who like to grind games to a crawl and beat teams with superior execution. Not unlike Kansas State.

Kansas State holds opponents to an average of 66.9 points per game. That’s not Virginia level, but it is 46th in the country. They have forced 503 turnovers, 35th-most in the nation, and picked up 275 steals, 11th-best in the NCAA.

All of this is bad news for Kentucky. When UK scores fewer than 70 points this season, the Wildcats are 2-8. The Wildcats were also 297th in the nation in turnovers, coughing the ball up 465 times. During UK’s 10-game run to end the season, they haven’t had more than 13 turnovers in a game. But for the year, when UK has 14 or more turnovers, it’s just 7-6.

The Wildcats almost did both in their last loss, committing 13 turnovers and scoring 67 points in the blowout at Florida to end the regular season.

Credit: Matt Stamey-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky looked relatively sharp on offense through its first two NCAA Tournament games. But K-State is lurking in the weeds if the Wildcats can’t score enough — or turn it over too much.

2. Kentucky has to defend shooters

For much of the season, Kentucky has seemed extraordinarily lucky in defending perimeter shooters. The Wildcats are 20th in opposing field goal percentage (40.5 percent), and third in opposing 3-point percentage (29.9). But this is not an elite defensive team. They are 172nd in forcing turnovers, and 343rd in offensive rebounds allowed.

This matters should UK get Loyola-Chicago in the Elite Eight. Sister Jean’s fighting Ramblers are an incredibly efficient offensive team. They rank third in the country in field goal percentage (50.6) and 19th in 3-point percentage (39.8). The Ramblers have five players who average double-figure scoring, four of whom are legitimate 3-point threats (each shooting at least 35.2 percent outside the arc).

Only once this year has Kentucky allowed an opponent to make more than half of their shots, and only five times have they allowed a team to hit 40 percent of its 3s. Part of that is because Kentucky’s length creates missed shots. And part of it is because Kentucky has been lucky enough to not draw many teams with four capable perimeter scorers on the floor at a time. If they do so in the Elite Eight, the Wildcats will either have to own the backboards completely or shoot an impressive percentage themselves.

3. Kentucky can’t get beaten routinely off the dribble

Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

On the other hand, if the Wildcats were to face Nevada in the Elite Eight, the Wolfpack’s elite passing would be a headache. Nevada had 590 assists this season, 12th in the nation. They also had just 347 turnovers, 16th fewest. The result: Nevada averages 16.4 assists per game, largely because of their ability to break down defenses and create good shots. If you need further proof, watch their furious rally to knock off Mick Cronin’s aforementioned Cincinnati squad. They finished with 13 assists to just 2 turnovers.

When Kentucky’s defensive focus lags, the Wildcats can get into trouble. In the seven games this year that they allowed 16 or more assists, the Wildcats were 4-3. Similarly, when opponents had fewer than the 9.6 turnovers (Nevada’s average), Kentucky was just 6-4.

Kentucky lacks depth at all positions, particularly if Jarred Vanderbilt is limited or out again this weekend. If the Wildcats find themselves getting beat off the dribble, they’ll either give up quality shots or rack up a ton of fouls — and neither is a good scenario for UK’s Final Four hopes.