The preseason expectations for Brian Kelly’s second LSU team were much greater than those for his first.

The Tigers were left out of the AP’s preseason Top 25 in 2022, but went on to win the SEC West and finish No. 16 in the final poll.

LSU was No. 5 in the preseason poll this year, but hasn’t performed up to expectations. It was beaten thoroughly by Florida State 45-24 in the season opener.

It won its 1st 2 SEC games, then had one of the worst defensive performances in program history in a 55-49 loss at Ole Miss.

Two losses in the 1st 5 games.

But the Tigers haven’t lost since.

Now it’s Tell the Truth Monday, Alabama week edition – and the truth is this week’s outcome will determine whether Kelly’s 2nd team can still vindicate those lofty preseason expectations.

The No. 13 Tigers have a ways to go in order to return to the neighborhood they occupied in the preseason poll. And they might never make it back there.

But this week can make a big difference.

The first CFP rankings will be unveiled Tuesday night, and they will provide more clarity to just where LSU stands entering the final 3rd of the regular season.

A victory over the No. 8 Crimson Tide would certainly move the Tigers up next week and place them in position to repeat as West champs if they win their last 2 SEC games (vs. Florida and Texas A&M) and if Ole Miss loses 1 of its last 3 SEC games (vs. Texas A&M, at Georgia and at Mississippi State).

LSU has been playing catch-up to its preseason expectations since that Labor Day weekend loss to Florida State. And it’ll never catch up if it suffers a 3rd loss this week.

But a victory over the Tide – much like the 32-31 overtime win a year ago in Tiger Stadium – would greatly enhance the prospects for the rest of this season.

Just like last season, the SEC West schedule isn’t quite the gauntlet that it generally has been in recent seasons. And even more so than last season, Bama isn’t quite the powerhouse that it generally has been during the Nick Saban era.

Bama is beatable. The SEC West is winnable.

Whether LSU can beat the Tide and win the West will go a long way toward defining this season.

In the end, will Kelly’s 2nd team maintain – or perhaps even raise – the standard that his 1st team set?

Or will it be a middle-of-the-pack SEC team that needed the 2nd-best season ever by an LSU quarterback in order to avoid a significant drop-off?

A win in Tuscaloosa would be consistent with the 1st option. A loss in Tuscaloosa would be consistent with the 2nd option.

Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Logan Diggs and company have led one of the most productive offenses in the country.

The defense has played progressively better for the last 2½ games, but will face a much stronger test Saturday than it has faced during this period of improvement.

The victory over Bama last season validated what Kelly’s team had done in winning 6 of its previous 8 games.

The challenge for this year’s team is to produce another victory over the Tide, not to validate the 1st 8 games, but rather to validate the preseason projections – to show this team at the beginning of November is a better team than it was in September and a better team than it was in October.

In order to do that, it will have to show that it is in fact a complete team – one with perhaps the most explosive offense in the country as well as a Top 25-caliber defense. It has to demonstrate that against Alabama, not Army, not Auburn, not even Missouri.

Kelly was brought to LSU to bring the program to a point where it would compete perennially for the SEC title and a CFP berth.

Reaching both goals was going to require consistent success against Bama.

The win against the Tide and the West title were an excellent start.

Another win against Bama – with or without an SEC West title – would be satisfactory in Year 2.

But a loss to the Tide – and becoming an also-ran in the West – would represent a step backward – even with 3 games remaining.