Mississippi State has a chance to do the improbable on Saturday: clinch the SEC West. Few predicted they’d be in this position before the season, but a win over Alabama on the road would lock up the divisional crown. It won’t be easy for No. 1 Mississippi State, with CFP No. 5 Alabama fighting for its playoff life.

We took a look at some of the statistics that could decide the matchup.

THE GOOD

  • 3.6. Alabama is a more diverse offensive team than in years past, but they still struggle when they can’t get going on the ground. The Crimson Tide are 2-1 when they rush for less than 4 yards per carry, with a combined scoring margin of just 2 points. Mississippi State’s stingy run defense only gives up 3.6 yards per carry.
  • 6. The Crimson Tide defense is traditionally solid when it comes to forcing turnovers, but they’re slacking this season. Alabama ranks 11th in the SEC in takeaways, and the defense only has 6 interceptions on the year. With the way Dak Prescott has been throwing picks in SEC play, that’s welcome news.
  • 33.3. The Bulldogs are nasty on third-down tries, limiting opponents to just a 33.3 percent conversion rate. They’ll need to be that good against the high-powered Crimson Tide, who convert 52.9 percent of the time on third down.

THE BAD

  • 27. Amari Cooper is setting the college football world on fire, bad news for the Bulldogs’ porous secondary. Cooper has already set the Alabama single-season record with 79 catches, and 27 of them have gone for 15 or more yards. State has allowed 58 such plays this season, and they’re worst in the league when it comes to being beaten by deep balls.
  • 32.3. Mississippi State’s defense surprisingly struggles in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 32.3 percent of possessions inside the 20 and coming away with points on 58 percent of such possessions. Alabama is shakier than that in the red zone, allowing scores on 85 percent of opponents’ drives that make it that far.
  • 1. Nick Saban, in his SEC career, has lost to the top-ranked team in the country just once. He’s 3-1 in total in those games, including two national championship game wins, although the one loss did come at home. He has the experience to get his team ready for this kind of showdown; will Mississippi State be able to match that?