Mississippi State throws down with No. 12 Kentucky at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday at 7 p.m. EST in what I consider to be its biggest (non-Egg Bowl) game of the year.

The Bulldogs enter at 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the SEC. The Wildcats enter at 6-1 and 4-1, with their lone blemish coming against No. 1 Georgia.

Kentucky’s success has come as bit of a surprise to the intelligentsia. But maybe it shouldn’t. The Wildcats have been nothing but tough since Mark Stoops took over as coach. They run the ball, they play defense, and if you’re not paying attention, they’ll get you.

Mississippi State’s campaign has been one of 2 teams, as I have written. If all anyone looked at was rankings, it would appear that the Bulldogs were a pretty big underdog. However, according to the oddsmakers, this game is a pick ’em.

I could not agree with that more. This is the first Mississippi State game of the year that I just cannot get a read on. I have no gut feeling, and when I look at the numbers, I have no conclusion. It feels like this is about to be an absolute classic.

Both teams play incredibly good defense, which includes a big loss for each — Mississippi State to Alabama, Kentucky to Georgia. Where the teams differ is in how they play offense. The Wildcats run the ball well, and the Bulldogs don’t run at all.

Let’s look at the 2 key players for MSU to win this game.

On defense: Martin Emerson

Mississippi State cornerback Martin Emerson is one of the best defensive players in the country. The Pensacola, Fla, native has 2 interceptions, 2 passes defensed and a team-high 23 solo tackles.

Typically, when a cornerback leads his team in tackles, that’s a bad thing. That’s not the case here. For Emerson, leading the team in solos means that he is helping out his coverage unit, pursuing the football and setting the edge in the run game. And when he does allow catches, he’s getting his man to the ground right away.

In this game, as was the case against Texas A&M, man coverage is the key. If a defensive coordinator can trust at least one cornerback on the team to lock down his man, he can dedicate more resources to stopping the run game.

In the past, we’ve paid close attention to the success of the MSU rush defense, particularly against the Aggies. This game will be more of the same.

Emerson’s lockdown coverage will help contain Kentucky’s star running back, Chris Rodriguez Jr.

On the season, Rodriguez is averaging more than 6 yards per carry, which is outstanding. And Kentucky isn’t scared to ride him. Rodriguez leads the SEC on rushing yards with 775, even after rushing for just 7 yards on 7 carries against Georgia.

It’s likely that Emerson will match up with Wan’dale Robinson, a 5-11 junior from Frankfort, Ky. Robinson leads the Wildcats in receptions with 49, which is 32 more than the next closest receiver — in fact, more than the next 4 Wildcats combined. His 566 receiving yards are 5th best in the SEC, and he has added 5 touchdowns.

The MSU defense is the 3rd best against the run in the SEC, allowing only 93 yards per game. Remember, that includes an Alabama drubbing. However, the Bulldogs are 10th in the conference against the pass.

My suspicion is that Kentucky will come out chucking the rock right at Emerson and Emmanuel Forbes.

Emerson vs. Robinson is good on good, as coaches would say. It’s probably the most important matchup of the game.

On offense: Will Rogers II, obviously

The Wildcats are conceding fewer than 20 points per game, good for 3rd in the SEC. They are holding their opponents to about 119 yards per game on the ground and about 200 in the air, both far better than the league average.

My contention is that in this game, Kentucky will abandon its rushing defense, tasking stud linebackers DeAndre Square and Jacquez Jones to get into passing lanes and attack downhill on swing passes and checkdowns.

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers II will have as much on his shoulders in this game as he has all year.

As I have written and seen elsewhere, Rogers will absolutely have to find a way to get about 4-7 yards with his legs once or twice in this game to keep things moving.

Doing that, as well as being as decisive as possible, is more important here than it has been all year. These Wildcats linebackers are experienced, aggressive and sure tacklers.

My suspicion is that Kentucky, which is coming off a bye, will be keyed on the checkdowns. For the Bulldogs to be successful, Rogers must take a small step forward in the speed of his processing, and he must decide to either run for a few or throw to the checkdown as quickly as possible. I could be wrong about this; as I’ve written, this game is a toss-up.

Prediction

In my experience, when you have 2teams that do the same thing well on offense, like running the ball, games that seem close will end up being a blowout. Bu when the teams do the opposite thing well — as in this case, with the MSU air raid and the UK ground game — well … like some coach once said, “Get you popcorn ready.”

Because I am scared of being roasted, I will have some backbone and I will predict this game.

I’ll take the Bulldogs in a stressful showdown. My reason — they have Emerson and Kentucky doesn’t.