It’s strange to say, but it’s reality.

Florida is trying to build what Mizzou has. Think that’s crazy? Well, it’s not. Eli Drinkwitz has his team at No. 9 in the Playoff rankings while Billy Napier is just trying to get to a bowl game. The Gators haven’t been ranked in the Playoff rankings since the end of the 2020 season and they’ve since watched other East foes like Mizzou and Kentucky pass them up.

Florida and Mizzou don’t have much in common these days. Well, besides the fact that they both beat Tennessee like a drum. Other than that? It feels like 2 programs in extremely different places.

On Saturday night, however, they’ll be in the same place. Specifically, Columbia.

Here are some final thoughts on Florida-Mizzou:

1. What does Cody Schrader’s encore look like?

Man, did that guy earn a game ball.

Schrader became the first player in SEC history to have 200 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in a game. He racked up 40 scrimmage touches for 321 yards on 73 snaps. That’s a month’s worth of production for some guys. The former Truman State transfer made it look easy against one of the SEC’s top run defenses.

The question is whether Schrader has anything left in the tank. Even for a Mizzou offense with other weapons like Theo Wease and Luther Burden III (he’s still dealing with that ankle injury), it’s Schrader who figures to be called on often. His motor shouldn’t be in question. This is a guy who racked up 481 tackles as a high school linebacker who played both ways. Only the rarest of football players can play 2 ways consistently, but to do so at running back and linebacker at an All-State level is just absurd.

So what does that mean for Florida? Like, the defense that allowed 555 rushing yards over the past 2 weeks and is No. 115 in FBS in yards/carry allowed (4.95)?

It means the Gators could be another SEC defense that doesn’t have an answer for the former walk-on.

2. Brady Cook’s mobility is a problem for that Florida defense

We just watched Jayden Daniels get every blade of grass that he wanted against the Gators. Daniels has been brilliant, so it’s hard to knock Florida too much just for that, but look at the past 5 games. Ken Seals, Spencer Rattler, Carson Beck, KJ Jefferson, and most recently Daniels, all had at least 280 total yards against Florida. Seals was the only member of that group who didn’t have at least 310 total yards, and he’s a Vandy backup in The Swamp.

Here’s the other issue. Daniels and Jefferson ran for a combined 326 yards against Florida. Not all of those yards came from Daniels, but it felt like it. Cook also is a mobile quarterback who can take a well-covered 3rd-and-12 and turn it into a 15-yard gain with his legs. Florida has made tackling look like a lost art instead of an essential practice.

Cook isn’t quite Daniels with his legs, but he’s got a run of at least 16 yards in each of his past 5 games. Georgia couldn’t stop him in the first half and was forced to spy him after the break. Kirby Smart has the luxury of making that adjustment. Does Florida have anyone who can truly spy Cook? It doesn’t feel like it.

This feels like a matchup where Florida could repeatedly get gashed by the quarterback run game.

3. This isn’t a game where that high completion percentage will be enough for Graham Mertz

It’s great that Mertz has been able to stay within Billy Napier’s system and complete 73% of his passes. Surely you’ll see at some point in the broadcast a mention of Mertz being ranked No. 5 in the country in completion percentage. He’s only been picked off twice all season — he broke Tim Tebow’s program record for consecutive passes without an interception — which has helped a Florida team that doesn’t have a great margin for error.

But when Mertz was at his absolute best, it was against South Carolina. It felt like one of the first times all year that he truly cut it loose. He had to. Florida wasn’t winning that game on the road without a passing performance like that. The Gators need more explosive passing plays. Mertz ranks No. 72 in passes of 30 yards and he only has 4 passes of 40 yards all season, which is 1 more than Will Rogers … who has been out for the past month.

Mertz has an average depth of target of 6.8 yards, which ranks dead last among qualified SEC passers. You’re not going to beat this Mizzou team by dinking and dunking your way downfield. If there’s a weakness on that defense, it’s that it’s been vulnerable to explosive passing plays. No SEC team has allowed more 20-yard passing plays (39) than Mizzou.

If Mertz doesn’t try to stretch the field, he’s limiting Florida’s chances of keeping pace with a high-powered offense.

4. Is there a more inconsistent unit than the Florida rushing attack?

For the record, I love Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. I don’t believe there are a ton of backfield duos in the country that I’d rather have. But man, with that inexperienced offensive line, it’s been Jekyll and Hyde for the Gators’ ground game in 2023.

Look at this game log against Power 5 competition:

  • at Utah — 21 rushes, 13 yards, 0 TDs
  • vs. Tennessee — 43 rushes, 183 yards, 3 TDs
  • at Kentucky — 29 rushes, 69 yards, 0 TDs
  • vs. Vanderbilt — 30 rushes, 215 yards, 2 TDs
  • at South Carolina — 33 rushes, 71 yards, 0 TDs
  • vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) — 25 rushes, 109 yards, 1 TD
  • vs. Arkansas — 28 rushes, 112 yards, 1 TD
  • at LSU — 42 rushes, 181 yards, 4 TDs

That’s 5 games with 115 rushing yards or fewer and 3 games with 180 rushing yards or more. Weird.

It started off looking like Florida was simply a team that could run at home but not on the road. I’d argue that flipped a bit as of late. And it’s not just a “dominate bad run defenses and struggle against good run defenses” thing because Florida’s 2nd-best rushing day of the year came against Tennessee’s No. 26 run defense.

That’s still not a ringing endorsement to go on the road and establish the run against a Mizzou team that just held Tennessee’s SEC-best rushing attack to just 83 yards on the ground and is ranked No. 21 in FBS. Florida has yet to have consecutive games against Power 5 competition with 115 rushing yards. That trend might need to end if the Gators are going to pull off an upset.

5. No, I don’t think Billy Napier’s job security is on the line in this one (or the next)

I’ll admit I didn’t see a world in which Texas A&M would fork over $76.8 million to fire Jimbo Fisher, so I shouldn’t totally rule out the possibility of Florida paying $31.8 million to fire Napier after 2 seasons if he misses a bowl game. But I don’t believe Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin, who hired Napier and promised patience, will pull the trigger that quickly.

Still, though. There has to be an obvious sense of urgency to avoid the potential disaster scenario. That is, losing 5 games in a row to miss out on bowl eligibility and showing up on every hot seat list all offseason. Combine that with the daunting schedule Florida is up against and yeah, it’s safe to say that could impact Napier’s ability to recruit.

If there was ever a time for Napier to get some optics back on his side, this is it.

And a prediction … Mizzou 31, Florida 24

I wonder how Mizzou handles success. It’s a fair question coming off a game in which Mizzou won its first matchup of ranked foes since 2013. It was a loud statement on CBS against a team that stomped it the past 2 years, and the Tigers took care of, as Drinkwitz would say, “business.” The fact that Mizzou was given that No. 9 ranking in the Playoff rankings only solidified the growing national sentiment.

Mizzou? We see you.

But Florida should see this as an opportunity to perhaps catch at Mizzou at the right time. That allows the Gators to get off to a fast start with Tre Wilson carving up the Mizzou secondary like he did early on against Georgia. Napier’s script is clicking early and a Cook turnover has Mizzou fans wondering if a classic letdown loss is on the horizon. Florida even gets a 17-14 halftime lead.

Ah, but success is fleeting against a team as good as Mizzou. The Tigers trust their ground game and Blake Baker makes the right defensive adjustments to get stops to shake off a disappointing start. Instead of this being a statement win for Florida to clinch bowl eligibility, it comes up just short of pulling off the upset.

Florida’s skid continues and Mizzou’s march to a New Year’s 6 bowl carries on.