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Final Four 2025: 3 players who will struggle to hit their DFS expectations
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The Final Four this season features the 4 unequivocally best teams in college basketball. According to KenPom, there are only 4 teams with top-10 offensive and defensive ratings this season. Those 4 are the 4 left standing.
In San Antonio this weekend, the stars will be out in full force. And that offers us a robust DFS buffet to choose from. Below are 3 players who might struggle to hit their expectations.
Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn guard: Lower than 14.5 points
Underdog Fantasy has freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford’s point total set at 14.5 for this game. And going lower than that number would mean going against the recent trend. Pettiford has cleared 14.5 points in 6 of his last 9 games. And since the beginning of March, he has been a massive part of what Auburn does. Up until March 1, Pettiford averaged 21.1 minutes per game and 8.6 shot attempts per game. Since the start of March, Pettiford is seeing 28.3 minutes per game and getting up 11 shot attempts per game. But he’s also still a first-year player and has been one of the weaker defensive links when on the floor. According to EvanMiya’s player ratings, Pettiford has the lowest defensive BPR of any of the rotation players. He also commits 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes. Florida’s strength rests in its backcourt, and Pettiford is going to get targeted on the defensive end. If he’s giving up buckets or free throws, he might wind up closer to the 21 minutes per game he saw pre-March than the 28 minutes since. And, at the other end, Florida has done a wonderful job keeping guards in check. Texas Tech’s starting backcourt scored 7 combined points on 2-of-8 shooting. UConn’s starting backcourt had 14 points on 4-of-16 shooting. Mark Sears was held to 9 on 3-of-10 shooting in the SEC Tournament. Wade Taylor IV was held to 11 on 3-of-11 shooting back on March 1. There have been instances where guards got hot (Sears had 30 in the regular-season meeting between Florida and Alabama), but by and large, the Gators have done well to hold guards in check over the last month.
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Walter Clayton Jr., Florida guard: Lower than 20.5 points
Underdog set has this pick sitting at 20.5 for the Gators’ leading man. While I think Clayton can clear his assist number in this game, hitting this point total will be a challenge for the same reasons. Auburn is ultra-aggressive on the perimeter, looking to run teams off the 3-point line and force turnovers that can lead to fast-break points at the other end. Auburn should be looking to crowd Clayton and force him to give the ball up to teammates. We’ve seen throughout March Madness that Clayton can bury teams when he gets hot. He had 23 against UConn in the second round and completely took the game over down the stretch. He had 30 against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. Priority No. 1 for stopping Florida is stopping Clayton from getting going, and Auburn has the personnel to do that. The Tigers block shots at a top-5 rate in the country, defend the 3-ball at a top-10 clip, and have length all along the perimeter. Denver Jones (6-4) and Chad Baker-Mazara (6-7) can get after it on the defensive end. And Miles Kelly is active with his 6-6 frame.
J’Wan Roberts, Houston forward: Lower than 6.5 rebounds
Underdog has set Houston forward J’Wan Roberts’ rebound total at 6.5 for the Cougars’ battle with Duke. Once again, the size of the Blue Devils creates a problem for their opponent. According to KenPom, Duke is the tallest team in the country while Houston’s average height would rank 243rd. The Cougs’ frontcourt consists of the 6-8 Ja’Vier Francis, the 6-8 Joseph Tugler, the 6-8 J’Wan Roberts, and the 6-6 Terrance Arceneaux. Duke puts that size to good use, dominating its opponent on the glass. The Blue Devils are 11th nationally in rebounding rate. While Houston has held its own on the glass all season, bigger teams have given Roberts in particular challenges. The Cougars have played 6 games against teams that are among the 25 tallest in the country. Roberts has averaged 5.8 rebounds per contest in those 6 games. Foul trouble could be an issue as well given how Duke uses Cooper Flagg.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
