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On their best day, Alabama has an offense that can rip apart anyone. The Crimson Tide (21-5, 10-3 SEC) scored 98 points on Wednesday night against Mizzou, their 13th game this season with at least 90 points. Nate Oats’ insistence on optimal basketball has made Alabama a problem for everyone.
But Alabama hasn’t figured out the defensive side of the floor under Oats. The Crimson Tide scored 98 points on Wednesday and lost. Mizzou shot 60% from the field and scored 110 points. It was the fourth straight game in which Alabama had allowed 80 points to the opposition. The only teams that have failed to hit 80 on Alabama over its last 9 games were Georgia and LSU — 2 offenses that rank in the bottom 4 in the SEC in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
In consecutive losses, Alabama has scored 183 points and given up 204 points.
Before the NCAA Tournament selection committee revealed Alabama as a 1-seed in its early bracket preview, Alabama hadn’t lost consecutive games at any point this season. The Crimson Tide host Kentucky — and its fifth-ranked offense — on Saturday looking to get back on track. But this slide has potentially created an opening for another team to slide in and knock Alabama off the 1-seed line.
Odds to be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament
- Duke -20000
- Florida -220
- Houston -210
- Alabama +100
- Tennessee +180
- Iowa State +1500
- Texas A&M +6000
odds via FanDuel
Auburn is not on the board. When the selection committee revealed its bracket preview last weekend, it also revealed that not only was Auburn the top overall seed, it was a unanimous top overall seed. Had the Crimson Tide found a way to beat Auburn at home last Saturday, perhaps the discussion would be different, but Bruce Pearl’s group delivered a signature win.
In beating the Tide 94-85, Auburn (24-2, 12-1 SEC) locked up a 1-seed. According to simulations from Bart Torvik, the Tigers have a 94.9% chance to grab a top seed in the tournament field.
Alabama was the committee’s second overall team, followed by Duke and then Florida. In a weak ACC, the Blue Devils (23-3, 15-1 ACC) look plenty indomitable themselves. Bart Torvik gives the Cameron Crazies a 71.7% chance to hold onto their status as a 1-seed.
In all practicality, 2 spots are up for grabs. Florida (23-3, 10-3 SEC) has a head-to-head win over Auburn and will face Alabama in Tuscaloosa on March 5. Bart Torvik gives the Gators a 52.5% chance to grab a 1-seed. But UF also hosts Texas A&M on March 1. Florida’s defense has been stout all season. If the Gators are a legitimate title contender, winning consecutive games against drastically different styles will prove it.
Houston is where oddsmakers differ with Torvik. The betting markets have Houston (22-4, 14-1 Big 12) as a likely No. 1 in the aftermath of Alabama’s back-to-back defeats. FanDuel‘s price implies a 67% likelihood. Torvik gives the Cougars just a 37.9% chance.
Tennessee (42.4%) and Alabama (51.0%) are both viewed by Torvik’s model as more likely.
On Saturday, Houston will begin a stretch of 3 ranked matchups in 4 games when it hosts No. 8 Iowa State. On Monday, the Cougars travel to Lubbock to face No. 9 Texas Tech. On March 3, Houston faces No. 23 Kansas.
Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC) closes its regular season with games at No. 7 Texas A&M, at LSU, against Alabama, at No. 24 Ole Miss, and against South Carolina.
KenPom is projecting Florida to finish the regular season 27-4. Alabama has a projected record of 23-8 and is forecasted to lose each of its final 3 games. Tennessee is projected to finish 25-6 while Houston is projected to go 26-5.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
