SEC Tournament 2025: Predicting the outcome of every game in Nashville

SEC Tournament week is officially here! Round 1 starts on Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET with a game between 9-seed Arkansas and 16-seed South Carolina.

From there, we have 3 more matchups on Day 1 — No. 12 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Texas, No. 10 Mississippi State vs. No. 15 LSU and No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 14 Oklahoma.

Those are the only matchups currently set in stone. On Thursday, the teams with single-byes will play as part of the Round 2 slate. Those teams are 5-seed Texas A&M, 6-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Mizzou and 8-seed Ole Miss.

On Friday, the teams with double-byes begin their time in Nashville. Those 4 squads are 1-seed Auburn, 2-seed Florida, 3-seed Alabama and 4-seed Tennessee.

Based on the historic strength of the SEC in men’s basketball this year, this is shaping up to be the best SEC Tournament ever. So let’s make some predictions.

Here are my picks to win every single game this week in Nashville:

Round 1 — Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Here are my picks for Day 1 on Wednesday:

Game 1: No. 9 Arkansas vs. No. 16 South Carolina — 1 p.m. ET on SEC Network

This is a tough game to pick. I want to go against South Carolina because the Gamecocks have not beaten an SEC team away from the friendly confines of Columbia yet this year. And they’ve only won 2 SEC games at home. But 1 of those 2 wins was against Arkansas, and it was a 19-point blowout margin. The Hogs were without Adou Thiero, their leading scorer, in that matchup. Assuming he’s back on Wednesday, I’ll take Arkansas.

Pick: Arkansas

Game 2: No. 12 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Texas — 25 minutes after Game 1 on SEC Network

Vanderbilt has only won 2 SEC road games all year — at LSU and at Texas A&M. But the Commodores get home-city advantage in this tournament, as it’s being held in Nashville. And the Longhorns are entering this matchup at only 2-7 in their last 9 games. Can Tre Johnson and Arthur Kaluma guide Texas to a win to keep their slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive? I don’t think so.

Pick: Vanderbilt

Game 3: No. 10 Mississippi State vs. No. 15 LSU — 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Mississippi State is stumbling into postseason play. You always want to play your best basketball in March, and the Bulldogs very much are not doing that. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games. However, the 1 win in that stretch was against LSU. Mississippi State wins again.

Pick: Mississippi State

Game 4: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 14 Oklahoma — 25 minutes after Game 3 on SEC Network

Georgia won by 10 points in Athens against Oklahoma back on January 11. A lot has changed since then. Jeremiah Fears only scored 2 points for the Sooners in that matchup. That won’t happen again and the Sooners pull off the first and only upset of Day 1 in Nashville on a buzzer-beater.

Pick: Oklahoma

Round 2 — Thursday, March 13, 2025

Here are my picks for the 4 second-round matchups that I think will happen in Nashville at the SEC Tournament:

Game 5: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Arkansas — 1 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Ole Miss won at Arkansas earlier this season. But that was the second game of the SEC season, so these teams, particularly the Razorbacks, are very different now. However, the Rebels have taken care of business against teams they’re supposed to beat this season. Give me Ole Miss in a close one.

Pick: Ole Miss

Game 6: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Vanderbilt — 25 minutes after Game 5 on SEC Network

Vanderbilt beat the Aggies in College Station a couple of weeks ago, even though the Commodores, like most Texas A&M opponents, allowed a ton of offensive rebounds. Vanderbilt is usually pretty strong on the glass. This is just a bad matchup for the Aggies and I think the Commodores’ home-city advantage shows up in this one.

Pick: Vanderbilt

Game 7: No. 7 Mizzou vs. No. 10 Mississippi State — 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network

I’m worried about Mizzou. The Tigers struggled down the stretch after a major victory over Alabama. They lost games that you don’t see teams who make deep runs in March lose. The defense struggles to get stops. The 3-point shooting can go cold. But Mississippi State is a great Round 2 matchup for Dennis Gates and company. I think Mizzou gets past the Bulldogs before a tougher test awaits in the form of Florida.

Pick: Mizzou

Game 8: No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Oklahoma — 25 minutes after Game 7 on SEC Network

Lamont Butler being back on the floor is a major boost for Kentucky. The Wildcats are a different team with him out there. He also knows what it takes to win in March, having made a run to the title game a couple of years ago at San Diego State. He’ll be the difference in this game, helping Kentucky take down Oklahoma.

Pick: Kentucky

Quarterfinals — Friday, March 14, 2025

Here’s who I like in the quarterfinal round of the 2025 SEC Tournament:

Game 9: No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 8 Ole Miss — 1 p.m. ET on ESPN

Auburn has been struggling a bit lately, but this is still an elite squad that will be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Ole Miss will give the Tigers a battle in the first half, but Bruce Pearl’s squad pulls away late.

Pick: Auburn

Game 10: No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Vanderbilt — 25 minutes after Game 9 on ESPN

Even with the home-city advantage Vanderbilt will enjoy this week in Nashville, expect plenty of Tennessee orange to be in the stands. The Commodores’ run comes to an end in the quarterfinals as Chaz Lanier lights it up from long-range for the Vols.

Pick: Tennessee

Game 11: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 Mizzou — 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Mizzou beat Florida in Gainesville earlier this season, but these 2 teams are trending in opposite directions since then. Walter Clayton Jr., Alex Condon and company score a close, but comfortable, win over the Tigers.

Pick: Florida

Game 12: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 6 Kentucky — 25 minutes after Game 11 on SEC Network

Yes, I’m going with all 4 top seeds to advance. I think there’s a clear separation between Auburn, Alabama, Florida and Tennessee vs. the rest of the SEC this year, and I expect that to show up in Nashville. Alabama scores a third win over Kentucky this year, though it’ll be tough. With Lamont Butler on the floor, the Wildcats are significantly better.

Pick: Alabama

Semifinals — Saturday, March 15, 2025

Who will win the semifinals featuring each of the top-4 seeds? Here are my picks for Saturday’s action:

Game 13: No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 4 Tennessee — 1 p.m. ET on ESPN

Back on Jan. 25, these 2 squads met up in a game that set offense back at least 3 decades. Auburn earned a narrow 53-51 win at home, but boy, was it an ugly showing for both sides. The Vols went 4-for-22 from 3-point range (18.2%) and Auburn only mustered 3-for-20 (15%) from long range. Both teams shoot better this time around, but Tennessee hands the Tigers their third loss in 4 games.

Pick: Tennessee

Game 14: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 3 Alabama — 25 minutes after Game 13 on ESPN

Alabama, worn down by its struggle win over Kentucky, goes cold from 3-point range at the wrong time. The Gators ride a massive performance from Will Richard into Sunday’s title game with a 1-seed all but locked up.

Pick: Florida

Final — Sunday, March 16, 2025

So it’s all come down to this. My 2025 SEC Tournament champion is…

Game 15: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 4 Tennessee — 1 p.m. ET on ESPN

Florida and Tennessee played twice this season. Florida won by 30 on its home court. Tennessee earned a 20-point win on Rocky Top. I expect this game to be much tougher. Both teams will be playing for the third time in 3 days. Tennessee has the No. 1 defense, per KenPom. Florida’s defense “only” ranks No. 10. The Vols get one more stop in crunch time and cut down the nets in Nashville for the second time in the 2020s.

Pick: Tennessee

Adam Spencer

Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.