Week 6 of the college football season was one to remember.
A trio of top-10 teams went down, all in dramatic fashion. I’ll discuss a couple of those games below as I break down some of the prevailing narratives coming out of the weekend.
Last week in this piece, I covered topics such as Nebraska’s legitimacy, Keelon Russell’s Heisman case, and Tennessee’s QB situation, among others. Let’s break down 5 more ideas for Week 6:
Buying: Mizzou is really good
If you’re still sleeping on Mizzou, it’s time to wake up. The Tigers have an elite quarterback in Austin Simmons, an excellent running game led by Jamal Roberts and arguably the SEC’s most productive WR room with Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode both over 400+ yards and 5+ touchdowns on the season. While many programs are struggling with new offensive coordinators this season, Mizzou has not skipped a beat with the experienced Chip Lindsey running the show alongside Eli Drinkwitz.
The advanced metrics suggest Mizzou’s defense is even better than its offense. The Tigers are in the 90th percentile nationally in EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper. Mizzou is also above average in areas such as explosive play rate allowed, average third-down distance, early-down EPA and havoc %, among others.
I think Mizzou is clearly a top 5 team in the SEC and may have a case as high as No. 3 behind Alabama and Georgia. I’d have the Tigers in a tier with a few other teams, but they have an opportunity to make a major statement this weekend against Ole Miss. I’m not necessarily backing Mizzou against the Rebels (who also have an elite quarterback) on the road, but a win in Oxford wouldn’t stun me either.
Selling: UCLA is a good bet to make the Playoff
Like everyone else who watches this sport every Saturday, I’m wildly impressed with what Bob Chesney is doing in his first year at the helm with the Bruins. UCLA appears to have its best team since at least 2014 — perhaps since 1998 when the Bruins last made the Rose Bowl. I think UCLA should probably have been ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 this week based on the résumé it already has.
All of that said, I’m not buying into UCLA’s Playoff hopes just yet — and certainly not because of a 2-point win over an Oregon team that self-destructed to the tune of 5 turnovers on Saturday. UCLA deserves credit for forcing Dylan Raiola to have perhaps the worst single-game QB performance in recent memory (43 passing yards and 2 interceptions on 19 attempts). But UCLA’s offense accomplished very little, which has been an underlying theme of the season for the Bruins. Nico Iamaleava has a negative completion percentage over expected on the season and also has below average sack and interception rates.
On paper, UCLA has a manageable schedule ahead. It’s possible the Bruins will be favored in all of their remaining games. In practice, I’m skeptical they will be able to run the table against programs that, for the most part, have more raw talent than they do. Even this week’s home game against Wisconsin is far from a sure thing — the Bruins are only favored by 3.5 points on college football prediction markets.
Pick: UCLA to miss the College Football Playoff (52% on Kalshi)
Buying: Texas should be embarrassed
Texas lost its No. 1 ranking this week after falling to rival Oklahoma in stunning fashion 27-24 on Saturday at the Cotton Bowl. Losing to OU is bad enough for Texas fans to endure, but doing so in such self-destructive fashion will be difficult to recover from.
That said, I actually don’t think the result itself is the most embarrassing part of this catastrophe for the Longhorns. If you give up a special teams touchdown and a pick-6, you’re not going to win very often — those types of results happen from time to time. Oklahoma had just a 7% postgame win expectancy vs. Texas according to SP+, which is a number that should pass the smell test to anyone who watched the game.
The real problem is that Steve Sarkisian and his offensive staff are actively wasting what is undoubtedly among the biggest collections of offensive talent — on paper, at least — since the NCAA mandated scholarship limits. Texas has a 5-star quarterback, 2 elite transfer running backs, a pair of potential first-round wide receivers and an offensive line that’s chock full of blue-chip recruits. But production? UT is outside of the top 100 nationally in yards per play through 6 weeks.
That is unconscionable. Texas ranks 57th in opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play. That’s worse than offensive laughingstocks like Michigan and Georgia Tech. It’s also worse than Tennessee, which has been forced into a QB change. Texas ranks nearly 30 spots lower than North Carolina’s offense in this category.
And, for what it’s worth, Texas was a respectable 29th in opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play last season before its spending spree that resulted in adding Cam Coleman, Raleek Brown, Hollywood Smothers and more talent. Something has changed — and Sarkisian needs to figure it out quickly if he wants to avoid squandering the most talent he’ll likely ever have as a head coach.
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Selling: Kentucky is one of the SEC’s best teams in 2026
Kentucky has certainly been the best story the SEC has had to offer over the first half of the season, but I’m not sure the Wildcats are truly one of the league’s best teams. UK jumped up to No. 15 in the AP Top 25 this week. The Cats certainly deserve to be ranked on merit of their résumé, but that ranking — and standing as the SEC’s 7th-highest ranked team — seems aggressive to me.
Kentucky is 20th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. Offensively, the Wildcats are 36th in that category and have a quarterback in Kenny Minchey that only has roughly a 44% passing success rate this season. These are somewhat underwhelming numbers considering Will Stein’s reputation, but not too alarming.
Defensively, I think Kentucky is playing with fire a little bit. The Wildcats are in just the 8th percentile in average third-down distance, the 31st percentile in passing success rate allowed and the 34th percentile in explosive play rate allowed, per Game on Paper. There are other areas of concern on defense, too — those are just a few. At some point, Kentucky’s offense being merely above average will not be enough to make up for a defense that’s often pretty suspect.
None of this means that Kentucky’s 5-1 start should be any less appreciated. Just that we should temper expectations for what UK will be over the second half of the season, starting with this Saturday’s game in Norman.
Pick: Kentucky team total under 18.5 (via Novig)
Buying: There are 6 primary national championship contenders
I still have no idea who is going to win the national championship. I believe there are 6 primary contenders. In no particular order: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Indiana, Notre Dame and Miami.
The market seems to agree. According to Kalshi, there’s roughly an 80% chance that the national champion will come from that list of 6 programs:
Sure, there are a few other teams with a snowball’s chance. Texas could fix its offense, Ole Miss could get hot. Perhaps even LSU could run the table — but in all likelihood, the champion will come from that list of 6 programs above.
Five of those 6 teams are currently in the top 8 nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. The only exception is Georgia (17th), mostly because the Bulldogs have played a horrendous slate of opposing offenses prior to Week 6 when they won in Tuscaloosa.
Perhaps more than in previous years, this season’s best teams are playing up to their talent level. Alabama, Miami, Georgia, Notre Dame and Ohio State are a combined 22-13 against the spread this season, good for a cover rate of 63%. For context, all other ranked teams are covering games at a 57% rate this season. That’s still a high number (they’re ranked for a reason) but clearly a step below the true contenders at this stage.
The Crimson Tide, Hurricanes and Bulldogs are all beating the number by an average of 7+ points per game. Indiana is the only team I’ve labeled a contender that has struggled ATS this season (1-5 on the year) but the Hoosiers deserve the benefit of the doubt after a 15-0 season — at least until we see what they look like against Ohio State next week.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
