Week 8 of the college football season is in the books — and it was another doozy.
Several more highly-ranked teams lost, including No. 2 BYU, No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 8 Texas Tech. Upsets have continued to define the middle part of the 2026 season.
Each week in this space, I take a look at 5 prevailing narratives and see if they can be backed up by (or dismissed) by underlying data. Last week, we discussed the recent increase in upsets and Ohio State’s outlook without Julian Sayin, among other topics.
Let’s break down 5 more ideas after Week 8:
Selling: The 2026 season is starting to look like 2007
College football fans of a certain age hold the 2007 season in high regard. The seemingly-habitual chaos of that season — which saw non-traditional powers like South Florida, Boston College, Cal, Mizzou, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Virginia Tech reach the top 5 — remains the ultimate barometer for an upset-filled season.
I saw more than a few media members invoke the name of 2007 this week after another 5 top-15 teams took losses. Who knows what the rest of the campaign will hold for the sport’s highest-ranked teams, but for now, that comparison is off base.
The 2007 season was, for better or worse, even wilder than you remember.
In 2007, a ranked team lost to an unranked opponent 53 times. The unranked team won a staggering 24% of the time in those matchups. Through 8 weeks in 2026, the unranked-over-ranked outcome is happening just 13% of the time.
In 2007, a top 10 team lost to an unranked opponent 21 times. That’s happened just 8 times so far in 2026 (the season-long average from 2008-2025 was 8.9).
In 2007, a top 5 team lost to an unranked opponent 13 times. That’s happened just 3 times so far in 2026 (with a season-long average from 2008-25 of 2.7).
One area where 2026 might eclipse 2007 — losses from the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the country. In 2007, that happened 10 times. In 2026, it’s already occurred 5 times. This week’s No. 1 and No. 2 teams, Miami and Ohio State, could each still drop a game or 2 before the end of the season. Miami will likely be an underdog at Notre Dame next month and the Buckeyes are vulnerable with Julian Sayin out due to injury.
But for now, rest assured — the legacy of the 2007 season is safe.
Buying: New Mexico can make the Playoff
Jason Eck’s Lobos have joined the top tier of College Football Playoff contenders from the Group of 6. New Mexico cemented its place with a 21-16 win over a really good North Dakota State team early Sunday morning.
Boise State remains the favorite to earn the G6 berth out of the Pac-12. However, New Mexico appears to be very similar in terms of team quality and they have similar résumés. Both teams lost to traditional powers who are having a down year (Oregon and Oklahoma) and both teams have otherwise run the table.
The margin is close enough that it will probably come down to who can run the table from here on out, if either can. Boise likely has pole position (we won’t know for sure until the CFP rankings debut in November) but the Broncos also have a slightly tougher schedule from here on out, making it more likely that they drop a game at some point.
Given where the market is and how close I think these teams are, I think New Mexico to make the CFP is a good bet.
Pick: New Mexico to qualify for the College Football Playoff (31% on Kalshi)
Selling: LSU has a clear path to the CFP
On merit, I think LSU is probably the second best team in the SEC — and I wouldn’t even argue too much if you argued LSU is better than Georgia. With that being said, I’m bearish on the Tigers to make the College Football Playoff.
Most of that doubt is rooted in LSU’s résumé at this point in the season. The Tigers have already lost twice — another defeat would put them squarely on the bubble and a fourth loss would surely put LSU well outside of the committee’s considerations.
The next problem is LSU’s schedule. The Tigers still have Alabama, Texas and Tennessee in consecutive weeks after their bye. All 3 of those programs are also in the CFP hunt and are at a similar quality to LSU. Maybe the Tigers go 2-1 or better and squeak into the dance, but I wouldn’t favor that outcome.
Although LSU has been very impressive in recent weeks, it’s important to take their performances against Mississippi State and Auburn into context. The Bulldogs were without star quarterback Kamario Taylor and the Tigers were coming off of an emotional, exhaustive win over Georgia the prior week. LSU rightly outclassed Auburn, but that alone doesn’t mean Lane Kiffin’s bunch is a Playoff contender.
Pick: LSU to miss the College Football Playoff (47% on Kalshi)
Buying: Arizona could win the Big 12
No conference was more chaotic on Saturday than the Big 12. BYU and Texas Tech suffered devastating losses and Houston lost a heartbreaker to Utah. Quietly, Arizona moved to 6-1 on the season with a blowout win over Iowa State.
The Wildcats have lost just once so far this season — a 28-17 defeat on the road against BYU. Since then, Arizona has been absolutely dominant in wins over Northern Illinois, Washington State, Cincinnati, West Virginia and the Cyclones.
Quarterback Noah Fifita has keyed Arizona’s run. He’s completed over 74% of his passes at a clip of 9.2 yards per attempt. His passer efficiency rating currently sits north of 174, which is both a career-best and also good for 8th in the nation entering this week’s slate.
Arizona still has games remaining against Texas Tech and Utah. I think both are winnable, especially since the matchup with the Utes comes at home. If Arizona can get to 11-1, I think I’d favor the Wildcats in a potential rematch against BYU in the Big 12 title game.
Pick: Arizona to win the Big 12 (10% on Kalshi)
Buying: Multiple 3-loss SEC teams will make the Playoff
For months, we’ve wondered about the effects of the SEC moving to a 9-game conference schedule. Well, we’re already seeing it — and it’s not even November yet.
Entering Week 9, the average ranked SEC team has about 1.8 losses already. In 2025, that number was 1.2 and in 2024 it was 1.3. That’s a significant increase and the season is far from over — some teams still have 5 SEC games remaining.
And yet, the Playoff demands a 12-team field. The Big Ten has been a disaster with Oregon and Michigan bowing out already. The Big 12 looked like it may have been a 3-bid league as recently as a week ago, but those dreams took a big hit this weekend. The ACC, outside of Miami, continues to show very little pulse.
I think Georgia is a safe bet to be 10-2 or better. The rest of the league? I’m not sure anyone else gets by with a record better than 9-3. There’s even a scenario where a 9-3 team loses the SEC Championship Game and still reaches the Playoff.
But someone has to fill those 12 slots. I’d bet on multiple 3-loss SEC teams being included.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
