It’s time for Week 2 upset predictions.
Last week’s picks unfortunately went 1-4 — San Jose State at +138 was the only winner. Florida State and Louisville were close, but that won’t cut it here.
We’ll strive to be better this week.
College football Week 2 upset predictions
I’m back with 5 more money underdog picks for Week 2:
Michigan over Oklahoma
As recently as a couple of weeks ago, Michigan was favored in this game. Entering Week 1, the Sooners were a small 1.5-point favorite at most shops. On principle, I feel comfortable fading a 5.5-point line move after 1 data point.
I do have some nerves about what Michigan’s offense will be able to do against Brent Venables and the Sooners — maybe not much. But I don’t think OU’s offense will be very explosive, either. Oklahoma struggled to average 4 yards per carry against UTEP in Week 1 and is dealing with multiple offensive line injuries in the lead-up to this game.
Oklahoma ran a ton of 2 tight end sets against the Miners. I think OU wants to have more of a run-first identity this season, which scares me given the lack of explosiveness in the running back room. Lloyd Avant, who rushed for 417 yards at Colorado State last season, appears to be entrenched as the starter.
Ultimately, I think this game will be decided by a handful of high-leverage plays — 4th downs and the turnover battle will be key. To me, that says this game should be priced closer to a coin flip than it currently is.
Pick: Michigan to win | 33% on Kalshi | Implied odds: +203
Kansas over Mizzou
Both KU and Mizzou played FCS opposition in Week 1 with new quarterbacks, so there’s still a good bit of uncertainty about the Jayhawks and the Tigers. Ultimately, I’m just higher on KU than the market is.
I’m a big fan of new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who had a previous stint in Lawrence but spent the last 2 seasons at Penn State. The Jayhawks averaged about 7 yards per player across 2022 and 2023 with Kotelnicki calling the shots. I also like what we’ve seen from Isaiah Marshall in a limited sample — 274 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 attempts, albeit in low-leverage spots.
As a dissenting opinion, I’ll note that Eli Drinkwitz has won 7 straight games as a road favorite (and is 6-1 ATS). I’m picking the Jayhawks anyways because I think this team is better than the SEC bottom-dwellers that Mizzou is usually favored against on the road.
Pick: Kansas to win | 33% chance on Kalshi | Implied odds: +203
Memphis over Boise State
What if Boise State’s narrow loss to Oregon says more about the Ducks than it does about the Broncos? I’m open to that possibility entering Week 2. I think Oregon is talented, but it’s worth noting it was playing its first game with 2 new coordinators against Boise State. I don’t think Oregon played anywhere close to its potential in the opener.
Boise also clearly ran out of gas toward the end of that game — on a per-play basis, the Ducks out-gained Boise 10.1 to 4.2 in the second half. I think the Broncos are likely getting too much credit in the marketplace for keeping that score close.
I think there’s also something to be said for the energy Boise State had to exert in order to keep that game close for so long. Will it be able to turn around and effectively prepare for a Memphis team that’s got plenty of momentum after a 2-0 start? I’m not convinced.
I’ll also note that the early returns on Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes are excellent. Against UNLV and Arkansas State, Stokes has posted a completion percentage over expected of 8.8% and is pairing that with an average depth of target of 12.3 yards. He might be the second-best QB Boise faces all season after Dante Moore.
Pick: Memphis to win | 25% on Kalshi | Implied odds: +300
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Iowa State over Iowa
I’m not sure what Iowa has done to deserve being a 2-touchdown favorite over Iowa State. Yes, the Cyclones had a full regime change this offseason with Jimmy Rogers replacing Matt Campbell as head coach.
I think there’s a case that Iowa State has the better passing offense in this game. Jaylen Raynor is an experienced quarterback who threw for more than 3,000 yards last season at Arkansas State and is used to high volume. New offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl comes to Ames via the Detroit Lions, but previously called plays for some very successful North Dakota State teams — including Trey Lance’s record-breaking campaign in 2019.
Even if Iowa has a significant advantage on defense, I think the price is too good to pass up.
Pick: Iowa State to win | 17% on Novig | Implied odds: +488
Eastern Michigan over Michigan State
This is the long-shot play of the week. Eastern Michigan is a 17.5-point dog at most shops, which I think is just too much. The Spartans were only favored by 9.5 last week against Toledo — and I’m not at all convinced that Toledo is better than EMU.
I’m pretty low on the Pat Fitzgerald experiment in general for Michigan State. Controversy aside, he had clearly lost a step on the field before his Northwestern tenure ended abruptly. He went 3-24 in Big Ten play in his last 3 seasons that weren’t heavily impacted by the pandemic. I definitely think this Michigan State team is capable of losing outright to a mediocre MAC team.
There’s also another added wrinkle: EMU quarterback Noah Kim spent multiple seasons at Michigan State early in his career. He’s developed into a very good G6 quarterback who does a good job of avoiding sacks and negative plays.
Pick: Eastern Michigan to win | 13% on Novig | Implied odds: +669
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
