7 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 8 in the SEC and college football
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The more football they play, the less we know.
With the ashes still smoldering from South Carolina’s 27-24 win over No. 11 Tennessee (the same final score as Florida’s upset win at Texas and Auburn’s upset win at Georgia the week prior!), a big Texas win over No. 7 Ole Miss, and Kentucky being the SEC football team we can most rely on to win the games it is supposed to win, just as we all predicted this summer, here are 7 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 8 in the SEC and college football.
In honor of Arch Manning, I promise only to let it rip.
This season has a 2007 vibe
Week 8 ushered in a second consecutive week of massive upsets, with 3 top-10 teams going down in defeat and another needing overtime to survive.
The disruption begs a number of questions, but the end result is this: the sport has parity producing chaos we haven’t seen since 2007, when a 2-loss LSU won the national championship, no FBS team finished the regular season undefeated, and Kansas—yes, Kansas—was the lone power conference program to finish the regular season with just 1 loss.
A few more fun 2007 facts?
- There were 59 “upsets,” defined as games where an unranked or lower-ranked opponent defeated a higher ranked team
- AP Top 5 teams lost 13 games to unranked opponents, still an AP Poll record
- The No. 2 team in the country lost 7 times in the final 9 weeks of the season
- No. 1 and No. 2 fell during the same weekend on 3 occasions, including in both of the final 2 weeks of the regular season
The 2026 season is tracking this chaos. A team ranked No. 1 or No. 2 has lost to an unranked opponent in 3 consecutive weeks, dating back to Texas’s loss to Oklahoma and continuing with UCF’s win over No. 2 BYU on Saturday. No. 1 and No. 2 lost last weekend, marking just the second time since 2007 that’s happened on the same weekend. Only 3 power conference teams: No. 1 Miami, No. 9 UCLA, and No. 10 Utah, remain undefeated. That’s actually fewer unbeatens at this point than in the fabled 2007 season, when there were still 5 undefeated teams playing prior to Halloween. So, yes, things are weird, getting weirder, and the vibe is extremely 2007.
The SEC has 9 College Football Playoff contenders. Does it have a great team?
The SEC is the best conference in the sport, at least if you measure that the best way you can, by the league’s depth and likely College Football Playoff qualifiers.
Through 8 weeks, there are 8 bona fide College Football Playoff contenders in the SEC: Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas. The SEC is also 38-2 against other Division I conferences through 8 weeks and 11-2 against the power leagues. But paired with one another, things are getting complicated.
The question, though, is whether the SEC has a great team.
Here at Saturday Down South, this writer, at least, still firmly believes in Georgia’s greatness. The Cocktail Party beckons, and the Dawgs will get another chance to prove it, this time against their archrival. The Dawgs have a win at Alabama under their belt already and are the SEC’s most talented team. Are they great?
Kentucky is one bad half against Alabama (or one great Alabama half against Kentucky) from being undefeated, and it looked tremendous Saturday, coming from behind yet again to beat Vanderbilt 34-17. The Will Stein hire has transformed the program in 10 months, and Kentucky controls its College Football Playoff destiny with margin for error. Are the Wildcats great? We’ll find out.
Every other SEC team has questions as loud as their answers. LSU has an elite defense, and the offense has shown signs of explosive life the last 2 weeks. It also gets its toughest 2 games remaining in Death Valley. But do you trust Lane Kiffin to navigate Alabama, Texas, and at Tennessee unscathed?
Alabama has top 5 talent and most the time, it seems like the Crimson Tide have a difference maker at quarterback. But they still struggle to run the football at times and are bothered by physical opposition. Can they weather a trip to Death Valley and the Iron Bowl? If so, they’ll get into the College Football Playoff. But are they a great team that can do damage once they get there?
Ole Miss has one of the country’s best players in Trinidad Chambliss. They also have 2 losses away from Oxford and clearly can’t slow the run. Do they need to win out?
Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, and Florida all feel something “south” of great. The Gators’ defense is a mess. Missouri hasn’t played a complete game outside the friendly confines of Faurot Field. Texas looks awesome for a half and then nearly loses a game in the second half almost weekly. Tennessee is trying to grind out wins behind a great defense and just enough quarterback play. That’s a Baltimore Ravens/Trent Dilfer NFL formula that probably isn’t good enough in modern college football, but we’ll find out.
Whatever you think of the quality of the 8 SEC Playoff contenders, Halloween and November won’t be boring.
At least one 3 loss SEC team is advancing to the College Football Playoff
At present, the 2 loss SEC teams are: Alabama, Florida, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, and Tennessee.
At present, the best résumé of the 2 loss teams probably belongs to either Texas, with wins over Ohio State and Ole Miss, or Florida, who routed Ole Miss and won at Texas. I’m not sure who has the least attractive résumé, but both Florida and Tennessee lost to South Carolina, who are now 4-3 after beating the Vols on Saturday, but still the worst defeat for any of the teams in this group. We don’t need to know what the committee will do with these résumés now because there’s plenty of football to be played.
What I can suggest, with a high degree of confidence, is that with all the chaos and parity in the sport this autumn, at least 1 of these teams are going to make the Playoff with 3 losses. If Kentucky or Georgia lose 2 more times, they’ll remain in the chat, too. Things are in flux with just 5 weeks remaining in the regular season.
Keep Shane Beamer, South Carolina
A few weeks ago, in this space I wrote that Shane Beamer was in his “Alamo” at South Carolina. A trip to The Swamp, a bye week, and a home date with Tennessee would define his fate, and I didn’t think the prospects looked good.
Well, I was wrong about how it played out.
The Gamecocks throttled the Gators in Gainesville and sent No. 11 Tennessee back to Rocky Top with a L on Saturday, completing one of the more surprising 2-game season turnarounds in recent SEC memory.
Things don’t lighten up for the Gamecocks. They visit Oklahoma and its vaunted defense on Halloween and Georgia comes to Williams-Brice in late November before the annual rivalry game with Clemson a week later, with this year’s edition on the road at Memorial Stadium.
The wheels could come off, I suppose.
I just don’t think they will.
“They are as talented as anyone we’ve played, from line of scrimmage to playmakers. It’s NFL guys at a host of spots,” Florida head coach Jon Sumrall, whose team has played Ole Miss, Missouri, and Texas, said of the Gamecocks.
We saw all that on Saturday.
The Gamecocks did what basically no one’s done all year against Tennessee and moved the football with a modicum of consistency. They also made the big plays on the line of scrimmage that Tennessee’s made all season, including edge Dylan Stewart, one of those “NFL guys.”
Saturday’s win was just the fifth time in South Carolina history that the Gamecocks beat ranked teams in back-to-back weeks. The only coaches to do it are Steve Spurrier and Shane Beamer.
I don’t think you will fire someone who shares that company.
Is Kentucky an SEC title contender or a numbers tricker?
If you look at advanced analytics, Kentucky doesn’t look like a 7-1 football team.
Kentucky ranks 32nd in SP+ efficiency, below several SEC teams and well outside the top 12, a number obviously relevant to the College Football Playoff. Kentucky ranks 70th in total offense and 72nd in total defense, both very pedestrian rankings. Kentucky has an outstanding offensive line, but with a young quarterback who can hold the ball too long, the Wildcats rank 9th in the SEC in sacks allowed. Kentucky’s front 7 has received worthy acclaim, but the Cats rank just 8th in the SEC in havoc rate (20.8%), hardly what you’d expect from the dominant, disruptive fronts that make the College Football Playoff.
Yet Kentucky is on top of the SEC standings.
In basketball, you might call Kentucky a “numbers tricker.” A team with an elite record that seems to be outperforming its analytical profile. Winning 2 games in overtime on 2-point conversions certainly helps.
The way Will Stein has done it, however, is still hidden in the data.
The 2 biggest indicators?
First, Kentucky gets turnovers at a prolific rate and does not turn the football over. Kentucky ranks third in turnover margin and has just 5 giveaways all year. Both those figures are best in the SEC.
Second, Kentucky doesn’t allow big plays. The Wildcats rank 5th in America in explosive plays allowed, per Game on Paper, allowing an explosive on just 5% of snaps defensively.
Will Kentucky’s relatively modest statistical production on both sides of the ball ultimately catch up with it? Perhaps. But by producing turnovers, taking care of the ball, and making opposing offenses move the length of the field, Will Stein’s program controls its own destiny on the road to Atlanta.
Indiana grinds out another win, but something feels off
Indiana survived the Big House, winning a defensive snoozefest 13-6 in overtime. Curt Cignetti’s team is 7-1 and will be featured on College GameDay this week when Minnesota comes to Bloomington. Any program in America would take that.
Still, something feels “off” for the Hoosiers.
Indiana’s scored just 17 points per game in its last 3 contests, wining 2 (Nebraska, Michigan) and losing one (Ohio State). The Hoosiers are 13th in the B1G in success rate offense in that span, all while remaining in the top 10 nationally in yards per play. That’s a testament to the Hoosiers’ all-or-nothing offense this season. Sustaining drives has been difficult. Hitting explosives has bailed them out.
With one of the nation’s best defenses, perhaps that model is sustainable. It doesn’t feel like it, though.
Accountability Corner: I may have been wrong about LSU
After losing to Kentucky, I wrote Lane Kiffin and the Tigers off, suggesting a pathway to Atlanta and the College Football Playoff was all but mathematically lost.
We do “accountability” in this space, and I clearly sold LSU short.
No one in the SEC has played as well as the Tigers since the Kentucky loss, and Sam Leavitt’s improved play is the biggest reason. Kiffin has tweaked the offense a bit to rely less on Leavitt’s legs (injury forced or no) and the ploy’s worked.
In the last 3 weeks, Leavitt has completed 77% of his passes with 9 touchdowns against just 1 interception. The Tigers have averaged 35 points in those contests, losing only to Kentucky.
With both Alabama and Texas coming to Death Valley, the path to both the Playoff and Atlanta is wide open for LSU.
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Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
