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Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
It seemed preposterous in August. Respected Vegas handicapper Kenny White slotted Arkansas in his Top 25 power rankings before the season, SEC gambling insider Brian Edwards told me.
The Razorbacks (3-1, 0-1) aren’t in the two major polls yet — 11 other teams are ahead of them in the “also receiving votes” queue of the Associated Press Top 25 — but anyone gambling on Bret Bielema’s team has turned a nice profit.
After a strong first half, Arkansas fell to Auburn, 45-21, to open the season. That turned out to be a godsend for gamblers looking to back the Razorbacks. Undervalued, the Hogs have rolled to three consecutive wins SU and ATS, beating the Vegas number by an average of 26 points.
The Razorbacks have faced an average spread of -9.3 this season, 11th in the SEC. The team’s offense averages 48.8 points per game, a large reason that Arkansas has gone over the posted total in all four of its games — despite facing an average over/under of 63.1, higher than every SEC team but Texas A&M.
If you bet $1,000 on Arkansas to cover the spread in all four games as well as Arkansas to go over the total — eight bets altogether — assuming -110 odds, you’ve won $5,363.63.
Arkansas faces Texas A&M at a neutral site Saturday in an interesting contest from a gambling perspective. Texas A&M also is 3-1 against the spread and boasts the second-best scoring offense in the country at 55.3 points per game.
SEC teams improved to 20-12-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as Auburn, Georgia and Arkansas produced winners last weekend.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season.
In other words, if Ole Miss is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Rebels are +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
Texas A&M (+72) still has outperformed the rest of the SEC relative to the spread, but Arkansas (+71) closed the gap in a big way the last three weeks.
Entering Thursday night’s game at Kansas State, Auburn had covered the spread in 13 consecutive games, but the Tigers failed to cover the closing number of 7.5, winning 20-14. Coach Gus Malzahn fell to 22-7 ATS at Auburn.
Ole Miss and Kentucky are the only two SEC teams unbeaten against the spread, while Vanderbilt improved to 1-3 by staying within 21.5 of South Carolina.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | +72 | 3-1 |
| 2. Arkansas | +71 | 3-1 |
| 3. Ole Miss | +47 | 3-0 |
| 4. Kentucky | +37 | 3-0 |
| 5. Georgia | +29 | 2-1 |
| 6. Tennessee | +23 | 1-2 |
| 7. Auburn | +17.5 | 2-1 |
| 8. Missouri | +15 | 2-2 |
| 9. Mississippi State | +14 | 3-1 |
| 10. LSU | +12 | 2-1-1 |
| 11. Florida | +4.5 | 1-2 |
| 12. Alabama | -12.5* | 1-2* |
| 13. South Carolina | -37 | 1-3 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | -63 | 1-3 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Alabama’s average Vegas line through four games is minus-31.3, highest in the conference. It also illustrates just how high expectations still are for Nick Saban’s program. The Tide were 46.5-point favorites against Southern Miss.
Texas A&M passed Florida and now owns the second-highest average line, needing to win by an average of 25.5 points to cover. The Aggies, of course, faced Lamar, Rice and SMU after opening the season as a 10-point road underdog.
The state of Tennessee holds the only two SEC teams who are an underdog on average in Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been favored in both non-conference games.
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Alabama | -31.3 | -46.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 2. Texas A&M | -25.5 | -47 vs. Lamar |
| 3. Florida | -20.6# | -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan |
| 4. Auburn | -19.5 | -34 vs. San Jose State |
| 5. Georgia | -19.3 | -42 vs. Troy |
| 6. LSU | -18.5 | -32.5 vs. Sam Houston State |
| 7. Ole Miss | -18 | -26 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 8. Mississippi State | -16.6 | -30.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 9. Missouri | -13.5 | -26 vs. South Dakota State |
| 10. South Carolina | -10 | -21.5 at Vanderbilt |
| 11. Arkansas | -9.3 | -40.5 vs. Nicholls State |
| 12. Kentucky | -6.3 | -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
| 13. Tennessee | +0.3 | -16.5 vs. Arkansas State |
| 14. Vanderbilt | +4 | -15.5 vs. Massachussetts |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
The over is 31-18 in games involving SEC teams through four weeks, including 9-2 last week. (This includes two wins or two losses for every game between SEC teams. All three such matchups went over the total last weekend.)
Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida have gone over the posted total in every game, while Tennessee’s defense is subtly good. The Vols have gone under the posted total in all three games.
The Commodores have faced the lowest average over/under at 49.3 points, but Vanderbilt’s offense scored 34 points in consecutive weeks, pushing over the total both games.
| Team | Average Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 67.1 | 76.5 vs. Lamar | 2/2 |
| 2. Arkansas | 63.1 | 66.0 at Texas Tech | 4/0 |
| 3. Auburn | 62.5 | 67.0 vs. San Jose State | 2/1 |
| 4. Missouri | 60.4 | 71.5 vs. Indiana | 2/2 |
| 5. Georgia | 59.7 | 64 vs. Troy | 3/0 |
| 6. South Carolina | 59.0 | 65.0 vs. East Carolina | 3/1 |
| 7. Tennessee | 56.2 | 59.5 vs. Arkansas State | 0/3 |
| 8. Ole Miss | 53.7 | 59.0 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette | 1/2 |
| 9. Mississippi State | 53.6 | 58.0 vs. UAB | 2/2 |
| 10. Alabama | 53.5 | 56.5 vs. Southern Miss | 3/0 |
| T11. Florida | 53.3# | 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan | 3/0 |
| T11. LSU | 53.3 | 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State | 2/2 |
| 13. Kentucky | 52.8 | 54.5 at Florida | 2/1 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | 49.3 | 50.5 vs. South Carolina | 2/2 |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
