How much better can Fitzgerald and Mississippi State’s offense be in 2017?
Published:
Mississippi State got off to a rough start in 2016 with a season-opening loss to South Alabama. The Bulldogs finished with an improbable bowl win and return one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the SEC.
As a sophomore, Nick Fitzgerald threw for 2,423 yards, 21 touchdowns and 10 picks, but it’s his legs that set him apart. Fitzgerald finished second in the SEC with 1,375 rushing yards, crushing You Know Who’s school record for a quarterback.
His rushing was the catalyst behind the Bulldogs finishing seventh in the SEC in scoring offense, a clip of 30.4 points per game. There is plenty of room for improvement behind those numbers. The Bulldogs averaged 56 points against FCS teams and only 28.3 points against FBS teams.
As Fitzgerald improved, Mississippi State’s scoring numbers continued to climb, from 28.5 points per game in August and September to 32.3 in October to 33.8 in November.
The Bulldogs were fifth in the SEC in rushing with 230.5 yards per game but ninth in passing with less than 210 yards per game.
Running game
Fitzgerald obviously highlights the running game, but another junior has a chance to be one of the SEC’s breakout stars.
Aeris Williams ran for 720 yards and four touchdowns last season. But only five times did Williams get double-digit carries and it took six games for that to happen.
Working in a a crowded backfield, Williams shined when given the ball. He had 331 yards and three touchdowns on 49 carries in two of the season’s biggest wins against Texas A&M and Ole Miss. He averaged 5.8 and 7.6 yards per carry in those two games.
Williams will get a chance as the featured back and nothing points to him not being able to handle that role. He will get help from sophomores Nick Gibson and Alec Murphy as well as junior Dontavian Lee. Gibson led the team in April’s Maroon Game with 108 yards on 17 carries.
Fitzgerald can’t ignore his rushing ability, but he also has to remember that Williams is the strength of the run game that can help him improve his passing.
Quarterback
The excitement Mississippi State fans have about Fitzgerald can’t be overstated. Hoisting the Egg Bowl trophy capped what started as a crowded quarterbacking field to an undisputed leader at the position.
He had runs of 70 and 61 yards (TD) against the Rebels, capping a brilliant regular season. Fitzgerald set the SEC single-season record for a QB with eight 100-yard games and he totaled 3,798 yards of offense.
There is plenty of room for growth, too. Fitzgerald struggled with the deep ball and was one of five SEC quarterbacks with 10 or more interceptions. He finished outside the top 10 in passer rating (124.3) and had fewer than 200 completions.
Among qualifiers, the only SEC quarterback with a lower completion percentage than Fitzgerald’s 54.3 percent was Trevor Knight’s 53.3.
The Maroon and White Game, for what it’s worth, didn’t provide many signs of accuracy improvement. Fitzgerald started 2 of 5 with two picks and wound up throwing it to the wrong team four times in a half of play.
Passing failures aside, Fitzgerald showed his legs are maybe the most dangerous in the country. He will be a strength of the Bulldogs’ offense. If his passing comes around to SEC-elite, his impact will be immeasurable.
Receivers
The Bulldogs’ passing problems were a little more surprising considering Fred Ross was one of the SEC’s best returning receivers.
The Bulldogs’ top threat now falls on Donald Gray in 2017. Gray had 709 yards on 41 catches with five touchdowns last season and needs 1,000 to show Fitzgerald’s accuracy has improved a year later.
Farrod Green and Justin Johnson at tight end need to be safety valves early on. They combined for only 16 catches last season.
If there is going to be a breakout star, it might be freshman Reggie Todd. Todd looked SEC-ready in the Maroon Game, the 6-4 target caught three early passes, but all three from backup quarterback Keytaon Thompson. The receiving unit doesn’t return a big name like Ross. It does return potential, but so far, Fitzgerald hasn’t exercised his passing potential.
Red zone
With Dak Prescott, the Bulldogs were first in the SEC and 12th in the country in red zone offense in 2015. They scored 48 of the 53 times there.
But 2016 was a dramatically different story. The Bulldogs scored on just 41 of 53 trips, falling to 11th in the SEC and 110th nationally.
Still, Fitzgerald proved in 2016 he’s a dangerous option who draws extra defenders. The hope for 2017 is that his running ability allows tight ends to slip behind linebackers who have to play the run, resulting in easy, open touchdown throws in the red zone.
Better or worse in 2017?
It is tough to ask Fitzgerald to do any more as a runner. He just missed becoming the third SEC QB to rush for 1,400 yards. At Mississippi State, he can only break the rushing records he set last season.
He could run for 300 fewer yards in 2017 and still be the team’s biggest offensive threat. There’s a reason he’s being mentioned as a dark horse Heisman candidate.
For the offense to take the next step, however, there has to be balance. That starts with Fitzgerald proving that he’s a capable passer.
Gray will have to be the go-to receiver and if one more receiver can form a duo to expose double teams, Fitzgerald can have an easier time getting on track through the air.
Williams must be the feature back we saw in the five games he was given double-digit carries. At 6-1, 217 pounds, he is built for the grind of the SEC season.
Mississippi State can be better on offense in 2017.
It all lies in the throwing arm of Fitzgerald. We already know what his legs can do.
