It’s almost time for the 2026 college football season.
With the season just days away, it’s a great time to survey available season-long passing yardage markets on daily fantasy sports apps like PrizePicks and others.
Below, you’ll find 3 predictions for passing yardage projections for 2026. It’s important to note that these projections only include regular-season contests — stats from conference championship games, bowl games and CFP matchups will not count.
College football passing yardage predictions DFS
Let’s break down 3 projections with potential value in the DFS market:
Drew Mestemaker less than 3,199.5 pass yards
On one hand, this is a bold play because Drew Mestemaker led the nation in yards per attempt at 9.5 and was 4th in passer efficiency rating last season at North Texas. Now at Oklahoma State, Mestemaker is joined by former UNT head coach Eric Morris as well as a host of other ex-Mean Green players and coaches.
However, I think Mestemaker is probably due for some regression as he steps up from the AAC to the Big 12. In general, I like fading passing yardage props on players whose teams have win totals below 7 — QBs on those teams are more likely to miss games throughout the regular season (either due to injury or poor play). But even if Mestemaker plays a full 12-game slate, expecting him to get to 3,200 passing yards is too optimistic for my liking. OK State plays 2 elite defenses in Oregon and Texas Tech as well as a handful of other potential top-50 units in Houston, UCF, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona State (all are projected top 50 preseason defenses by SP+).
Where to look: The 3,199.5 passing yardage projection is available on PrizePicks
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Sam Leavitt less than 3,074 pass yards
This projection is baking in a huge bounce-back season for Sam Leavitt, who missed 6 games last year due to injury. Not only that, Leavitt was also limited for much of the offseason with LSU. He had foot surgery in the fall and reportedly underwent a second procedure back in April. For someone who runs as much as Leavitt does (183 rush attempts in 1.5 seasons at ASU), his durability is a major concern heading into the season.
Beyond the potential injury red flags, 3,000+ yards seems like a high bar to clear for Leavitt. His best season in 2024 saw him average 8.2 yards per attempt, but that number was buoyed by outlier-efficient games in blowout wins over Wyoming (11.7), Oklahoma State (10.5), Arizona (13.2) and Iowa State (12.9). Against Texas in the College Football Playoff, Leavitt was limited to 4.8 yards per attempt in a game the Sun Devils nearly won despite his worst performance of the season.
Lane Kiffin has a reputation for producing prolific quarterbacks, but even Jaxson Dart didn’t clear 3,000 passing yards in the regular season until his 3rd season in the system. I’d expect his yards per attempt to hover around 7.5. Even if Leavitt plays all 12 games, that won’t be nearly enough to clear the bar here.
Where to look: The 3,074.5 passing yardage projection is available on PrizePicks
Avery Johnson more than 2,424.5 pass yards
I have not always been the biggest fan of Avery Johnson, but I think this projection is too low. Johnson’s efficiency has been extremely stable over his time at Kansas State — he’s averaged about 7 yards per attempt and 12 yards per completion. He’ll now play for Collin Klein, who just helped Marcel Reed to a 2,900-yard passing season in the SEC in 2025.
I expect Kansas State’s pass play rate will remain around 45% like it has for the past 2 seasons — Klein’s 2025 Texas A&M offense was also in that neighborhood, and Johnson may be a more capable passer than Reed. K-State’s schedule is very manageable as the Wildcats don’t play Texas Tech, BYU or Utah, which SP+ projects to be 3 of the Big 12’s best defenses in 2026.
Where to look: The 2,424.5 passing yardage projection is available on PrizePicks and Dabble
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
