November football might have finally brought some clarity to the SEC race…. or at least challenged the assumption that half of the league will go 9-3.
But the good news is that whether your team is one of the 9-3 hopefuls or is shy of that mark, each week is a new opportunity.
That’s why we review the SEC each week and freshly appraise where we think the squads of the SEC will finish. Here’s the post-Week 10 outlook.
Alabama (7-2, beat LSU 31-13): 10-2
Alabama earned its way off the 9-3 bubble by downing LSU on the road. Hard to see Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, or Auburn slowing this team up. Go ahead and mentally reserve that College Football Playoff spot.
Arkansas (3-6, lost to Auburn 26-23): 3-9
Arkansas is nearly certain to lose out. Home games with South Carolina and LSU have a trip to Texas in between. Might as well start thinking about 2027.
Auburn (5-4, beat Arkansas 26-23): 7-5
Auburn virtually had to win and it did. The Tigers will definitely be bowl eligible and get their shot to earn another win this week at Mississippi State. The Tigers are a very slight favorite, but we’ll bump them up another win.
Florida (5-4, lost to Oklahoma 23-7): 7-5
Florida has to head to Lexington to face a Kentucky team that still has plenty to play for. If that indeed is a loss, Vandy and Florida State should let Jon Sumrall‘s squad finish the season on a positive note.
Georgia (8-1, beat Ole Miss 42-7): 11-1
Georgia has been the most consistent team in the league and that continued in Week 10. There’s no reason to see a loss ahead for the Bulldogs who seem situated to come into the postseason in a very, very good place.
Kentucky (7-2, lost to Tennessee 34-6): 9-3
Kentucky had a painful dose of reality in Knoxville and now has to reset in a hurry. The good news is that Florida is reeling and the game is in Lexington. Basically all 3 remaining games look winnable… or losable. The logical thought is to stick with Kentucky to finish 9-3, so here they are.
LSU (6-3, lost to Alabama 31-13): 8-4
LSU falls off the 9-3 line based off a miserable run of 3 games: Bama, Texas, and at Tennessee. Even with a loss in the first one, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers losing all 3, so we’ll settle them in at 8-4.
Mississippi State (4-5, lost to Vanderbilt 25-23): 5-7
Mississippi State had to handle Vandy and now instead will probably miss the postseason. Auburn and at Ole Miss both seem like big asks for a team that was formidable back in September. Darn injuries.
Missouri (6-3, lost to Texas 34-20): 7-5
Mizzou just got gummed up by the schedule here. Anybody is going to lose to Georgia and Kentucky and Oklahoma at home are both going to be tall challenges for a team that has seen the Playoff picture basically get out of reach. The Tigers should at least manage to handle one of those final 2 home games, but that’s where the 7-5 prediction lands.
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Oklahoma (5-4, beat Florida 23-7): 6-6
Oklahoma seemed to have a new lease on life with Jason Witten calling plays. It’s still a tough finish with home games against Ole Miss and Texas A&M and a trip to Missouri. A 7-5 mark is certainly not outside of the realm of possibilities, but for a team as inconsistent as this one, even on a more optimistic day, 6-6 feels like the safe spot to land.
Ole Miss (6-3, lost to Georgia 42-7): 9-3
Ole Miss had an awful week, but the schedule does open up. The trip to Oklahoma is the place to make a stand and turn things back toward 9-3. With Wofford and a Kamario Taylor-less Mississippi State to follow, a better offensive performance can leave the Rebels still very much involved in the CFP picture… but they do have to survive a trip to Norman first.
South Carolina (6-3, beat Texas A&M 17-9): 8-4
South Carolina looks nothing like the team that started 2-3 and is in good shape to end up 8-4 after winning at Arkansas and Clemson. Georgia, even at home, feels like an awfully big ask, but after an ugly start, it’s been a memorable season for Carolina.
Tennessee (7-2, beat Kentucky 34-7): 9-3
Tennessee took care of business against Kentucky, but now has to go to College Station against a dangerously underachieving Texas A&M team. That should be a win, but hosting LSU promises to be one the craziest atmospheres of the SEC season. Vandy doesn’t feel like a challenge, but Tennessee still can’t quite get the nod to escape the next 2 weeks unscathed.
Texas (7-2, beat Missouri 34-20): 10-2
Texas took care of business against Mizzou and feels slightly more likely than not to do the same at LSU this week. If so, Arkansas and A&M likely don’t present much opposition to the Horns’ CFP spot.
Texas A&M (4-5, lost to South Carolina 17-9): 5-7
Texas A&M is in back-against-the-wall territory. The only path to a bowl is to win at Oklahoma and then upset either Tennessee or Texas at home. At this point, one or the other seems like it’ll be heavy lifting.
Vanderbilt (4-5, beat Mississippi State 25-23): 4-8
Vanderbilt got a league win, but still doesn’t seem likely to take down Alabama, Florida, or Tennessee.
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Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
