While we wait for the clash of the titans in Athens in Week 5, don’t think the Week 4 slate of games in the SEC is a holdover. A couple of the SEC’s best offenses face 3-0 teams from the American. The upstart Commodores look for revenge over a surprise upset a year ago. A desperate South Carolina team heads to the other Columbia to face Mizzou. And then we have the 2 games on ABC in the afternoon and the evening.
Auburn faces Oklahoma in Norman. Florida faces Miami at Hard Rock Stadium. Both games could get sideways. Both games could be dripping with tension.
With 10 games across the SEC, and 9 of them involving FBS opposition, the DFS market is a buffet.
Here’s what to target.
Week 4 DFS predictions
Below are 3 DFS picks from the Week 4 college football slate that can all be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS that will help you earn $50 in bonus credits when you enter your first $5 contest!
Auburn QB Jackson Arnold longest completion higher than 35.5 yards vs. Oklahoma
My thinking in this spot is that Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables will be looking to load the box, limit Auburn’s ability to run the football, and ask Jackson Arnold to beat the Oklahoma defense with his arm. That’s what I’d do, anyway. Maybe Venables has a different plan. Maybe Hugh Freeze comes out looking to throw regardless and break tendencies. Either way, Auburn has to hit a couple of explosive plays in the pass game to stay in this fight with the Sooners. Cam Coleman becomes a really important piece in the chess match, and I like his potential matchups.
Illinois State didn’t have a single chunk play through the air against OU. Temple had 1. Michigan had 4, including a 38-yarder on Sooner corner Gentry Williams and a 44-yarder on Sooner safety Robert Spears-Jennings. OU’s top corner, Courtland Guillory, has only given up 2 receptions on 10 targets this season, but the other guys have given up some plays. And you could make the case that Oklahoma’s secondary hasn’t yet been tested in the way Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. will stress it.
Auburn only has 2 pass plays of at least 30 yards through its first 3 games, but this is the kind of situation where you need guys like Coleman and Singleton to show their worth. Even if Arnold doesn’t have the best of days overall, I think the Tigers get at least 1 big play off through the air because of how this game will be played.
Miami QB Carson Beck higher than 273.5 passing yards vs. Florida
Through his first 3 games, Carson Beck has averaged 21.7 completions on 27.3 attempts. Florida gave up 263 yards on 23 completions to South Florida and then 220 yards on 15 completions to LSU. If Beck hits his completion average, and Florida is what it has been over the last 2 weeks, Beck is looking at 275 yards.
The Miami quarterback had 267 yards through the air against Bethune-Cookman in Week 2 and then 340 yards against South Florida last weekend. He had just 205 yards in the opener against Notre Dame, but that was a bit of a slopfest in the rain. Miami has a couple of outstanding receivers and Florida is officially reeling. The Gators haven’t shown any semblance of a pass-rush (2 sacks in 3 games) and Miami should still have plenty of motivation to go out and make a statement.
Memphis RB Sutton Smith higher than 60.5 rushing yards vs. Arkansas
Sutton Smith has hit 60 yards in each of the Tigers’ first 3 games of the season. He had 60 on 9 carries in the season-opening beatdown of UT Chattanooga. He had 14 for 74 and a score on the road against Georgia State in Week 2, then had 18 for 113 and 2 scores last week against Troy. Memphis has been mauling opponents at the point of attack this season, ranking in the 96th percentile for line yards per carry and the 92nd percentile for stuff rate. The Tigers are also running the ball on 61.1% of their offensive snaps.
With the Arkansas defense ranking 62nd nationally in EPA per run faced (per Game on Paper), look for Memphis to keep on keeping on. The Hogs aren’t giving up explosives on the ground — just 2 runs all season gained at least 20 yards — but they aren’t winning at the line of scrimmage. Arkansas is 121st nationally in rushing success rate allowed.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
