ESPN’s FPI predicts every game on Florida State’s 2026 schedule
By Sydney Hunte
Published:
Florida State is in a desperate state of affairs as it looks to make the climb back to relevance.
After going 7-17 in his last two seasons, Mike Norvell enters 2026 on one of the hottest seats in college football. Unless the Seminoles can put together a massive campaign, he could be looking for employment elsewhere.
According to ESPN’s FPI projections, Florida State will be a heavy favorite against New Mexico State in Saturday’s season opener in Tallahassee. Then come a couple of tough ones. The Seminoles host SMU on Labor Day in an early-season ACC contest before a bye week and a trip to Alabama. After facing Central Arkansas, it’s ACC play until the annual rivalry game against Florida.
These are only projections at this point. But if they end up materializing, Florida State could be in the market for a new coach.
- Aug 29: New Mexico State Aggies | 97.1% chance to win
- Sept 7: SMU Mustangs | 48.5% chance to win
- Sept 19: Alabama Crimson Tide | 18.4% chance to win
- Sept 26: Central Arkansas Bears | 98.6% chance to win
- Oct 3: Virginia Cavaliers | 61.8% chance to win
- Oct 9: Louisville Cardinals | 42.3% chance to win
- Oct 17: Miami Hurricanes | 12.3% chance to win
- Oct 31: Clemson Tigers | 47.4% chance to win
- Nov 7: Boston College Eagles | 75.2% chance to win
- Nov 13: Pittsburgh Panthers | 46.8% chance to win
- Nov 21: NC State Wolfpack | 72.7% chance to win
- Nov 27: Florida Gators | 42.9% chance to win
Overall, FPI projects Florida State to win 6.64 games during the regular season.
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Sydney is an Atlanta-based journalist who has covered everything from SEC and ACC football to MLS, the U.S. men's national soccer team and professional tennis. His work has appeared on such platforms as SB Nation, Cox Media Group and FanSided.
