After an interesting Week 8 and with 6 bye weeks coming up for SEC teams, it’s clearly time to argue about final records.
Well, it is our department, and we’re using another week of hindsight to predict where the teams of the SEC will finish the regular season.
One thought is that the only way we could be forecasting more 9-3 seasons is if Saturday Down South inks an endorsement deal with the numbers 9 and 3. Here’s what we see in the crystal ball heading into Week 9.
Alabama (6-2, beat Texas A&M 31-20): 9-3
Alabama took care of business, but didn’t show anything to change the conclusion from last week. This team heading to LSU looks more likely than not to be a loss, and for that reason, the Tide are sitting at 9-3, which should put them in the middle of an interesting Playoff debate.
Arkansas (3-4, off): 3-9
Arkansas is certainly capable of winning another game, but there’s not an outstanding candidate on the remaining schedule that inspires a pick for the Razorbacks to do so.
Auburn (4-3, lost to LSU 38-17): 6-6
Auburn (or this pick for it) provided a massive amount of negative social media feedback heading into last week. But I stand by what I said. The Tigers will get 6 wins, and the game at Mississippi State is the best shot at a seventh. It’s not a bad shot, but it’s on the road in Starkville. They could nab a seventh win, but it’ll need another Georgia-like convergence of excellent play and a little good luck.
Florida (5-2, off): 8-4
Florida is one of the harder teams on this list to pick. The Gators could go 10-2 or 7-5. But as things stand, the 8 wins look pretty safe, with the road trip to Kentucky the swing game to potentially be part of a confusing CFP picture. Lexington has not been kind to the Gators lately, although both teams are tough to pick based on what they used to be.
Georgia (6-1, off): 11-1
Georgia faces its proving ground in the next 2 games. But doing so off a bye and with 2 teams that realistically seem a tick below the Bulldogs’ level leaves the pick at 11-1. If Georgia’s going to stumble, the time is now…. but the Auburn game aside, that seems unlikely.
Kentucky (7-1, beat Vanderbilt 34-17): 9-3
Kentucky isn’t fancy, but it is in first place. The Wildcats are off this week and head to Neyland for a game that could tell the story about whether this crazy season stretches to the College Football Playoff or not. From 7-5 to 11-1, nothing is off the table here, but the most likely guess is still a 4-game split that would place UK in the Playoff discussion.
LSU (6-2, beat Auburn 38-17): 9-3
LSU looked like a team making a statement. But the November run remains the toughest part of its schedule. The 3-game run of Alabama, Texas, and at Tennessee decides if LSU is missing the Playoff, getting ready to host a Playoff home game, or the most likely possibility, stuck in a glut of 9-3 teams hoping for good news about the Playoff.
Mississippi State (4-3, lost to Oklahoma 23-15): 7-5
Mississippi State is taking some beatings. The good news is the schedule brings relief. Vandy and Tennessee Tech will likely get the Bulldogs to 6 wins, and hosting Auburn still provides a chance to reach 7, although the health of the offensive stars is definitely something to watch ahead of that game.
Missouri (5-2, off): 7-5
Mizzou is bumping into Arkansas at a good time. The Tigers should grab their sixth win, but then comes the tough part. Texas and Georgia look like losses, and how focused will a 6-4 team be against Kentucky and Oklahoma? For the moment, that looks like a split, but Mizzou’s Playoff hopes depend on upsetting Texas or Georgia.
Oklahoma (4-3, beat Mississippi State 23-15): 6-6
Oklahoma got a gritty performance from John Mateer and ground out a win, which is the Sooners’ recipe for (admittedly limited) success. South Carolina and Texas A&M at home look like the most likely path to bowl eligibility, although the finale at Mizzou is another good opportunity. For a team this limited, the home games feel like the best shot at grinding out a few more victories.
Ole Miss (5-2, lost to Texas 34-27): 9-3
Ole Miss saw its chances to almost lock up a CFP spot fade at Texas. Georgia remains ahead on the schedule, but the rest of these games look pretty solidly winnable. Which of course, leaves yet another 9-3 team. Imagine that.
South Carolina (4-3, beat Tennessee 27-24): 7-5
South Carolina looked headed nowhere after a 2-3 start, but the Gamecocks have played their way back into the SEC picture. Georgia looks like a loss, but 8-4 is still very much possible. As things stand, another loss — probably on the road — seems to be a bit more likely, but don’t tell the Carolina team from the last 2 games, because those guys are playing like another 9-3 team.
Tennessee (6-2, lost to South Carolina 27-24): 9-3
Tennessee had a chance to work out of the fray, but found a way to lose in Columbia. The best news for UT is that Kentucky and LSU are both home games, but the Vols just haven’t played like a team capable of putting together 4 consistent efforts and finishing 10-2. So, yes, that’s another 9-3 team. Go figure.
Texas (5-2, beat Ole Miss 34-27): 9-3
Texas got a big win and now can control its own fate on the road — trips to Mizzou, LSU, and A&M remain, with a likely pair of easy home wins against Mississippi State and Arkansas also ahead. That said, this team eked out a 3-point win in Knoxville and lost to Oklahoma on a neutral field, so the Longhorns haven’t shown anything on the road to establish themselves as consistent enough to go 10-2. So, say it with me now… 9-3.
Texas A&M (4-4, lost to Alabama 31-20): 5-7
Texas A&M will go 9-3. OK, so that was trolling. Of 4 remaining games, the Aggies are likely to be underdogs in all 4. The home games are Tennessee and Texas and road trips to Carolina and Oklahoma seem sticky. Accordingly, the Aggies draw the pick to miss out on bowl eligibility.
Vanderbilt (3-5, lost to Kentucky 34-17): 3-9
Vanderbilt could have a puncher’s chance in Starkville on November 7, but that’s about the best news out there for this team.
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Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
