ESPN’s FPI predicts every game on Oklahoma’s 2026 schedule
By Sydney Hunte
Published:
After going 6-7, 10-3, and 6-7 in his first three seasons at Oklahoma, Brent Venables helped the Sooners reach the 10-win plateau once more. That led to the program’s fifth College Football Playoff appearance and its first since a span of three in a row from 2017 to 2019.
What will 2026 have in store? According to ESPN’s FPI, the Sooners could be in for another letdown. They should cruise against UTEP, a two-win team a season ago. After that comes a coin flip at Michigan before what could be another rout against New Mexico.
After that, things switch to SEC play, where two pivotal games await: a trip to Georgia before the Red River Rivalry against Texas. With the FPI currently putting Oklahoma at less than a 25 percent chance of victory for both games, a pair of losses will immediately put it behind the eight ball in league action.
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Much of Oklahoma’s success hinges on John Mateer, who didn’t live up to the hype despite the Sooners getting to the Playoff. If this season continues that trend, they could be in trouble.
- Sept 4: UTEP Miners | 99.0% chance to win
- Sept 12: Michigan Wolverines | 47.8% chance to win
- Sept 19: New Mexico Lobos | 94.9% chance to win
- Sept 26: Georgia Bulldogs | 23.0% chance to win
- Oct 10: Texas Longhorns | 24.4% chance to win
- Oct 17: Kentucky Wildcats | 86.3% chance to win
- Oct 24: Mississippi State Bulldogs | 80.2% chance to win
- Oct 31: South Carolina Gamecocks | 75.1% chance to win
- Nov 7: Florida Gators | 54.6% chance to win
- Nov 14: Ole Miss Rebels | 62.3% chance to win
- Nov 21: Texas A&M Aggies | 49.9% chance to win
- Nov 28: Missouri Tigers | 60.3% chance to win
Sydney is an Atlanta-based journalist who has covered everything from SEC and ACC football to MLS, the U.S. men's national soccer team and professional tennis. His work has appeared on such platforms as SB Nation, Cox Media Group and FanSided.
