Just another wild weekend of SEC football.
I mean, who didn’t foresee Auburn going on the road and beating Georgia? Or a Florida team that had looked like a defensive doormat cooking a Texas team that figured to be hungry? Or the endless rise of Kentucky? OK, if you’re like us — and you probably are — Week 7 is one that has required some contemplation.
But as it all stands, here’s where we see the teams of the SEC finishing… although we probably could have just said 9-3 for about half the league and ended up on safer ground.
Alabama (5-2, lost to Tennessee 26-10): 9-3
Alabama was the disappointment of Week 7. Losing is one thing. Looking completely lost on offense was another. The road trip to LSU looks more like a loss than a win given the way this team has played over the last 2 weeks.
Arkansas (3-4, beat Vanderbilt 31-21): 3-9
Arkansas had a genuinely nice win on the road. The Hogs are capable of picking off another team, but it’s still an impressive slate ahead. Home against South Carolina might be the best shot at another win.
Auburn (4-2, beat Georgia 27-24): 6-6
Auburn got the gutsiest win of the season. Unfortunately, it doesn’t change a ton. Arkansas and Samford are wins, but a home game against LSU and road games at Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Alabama are all tough hills to climb. As last week shows, it can certainly happen. The Tigers have played pretty well on the road. But they’ll be working uphill to steal another one.
Florida (5-2, beat Texas 27-24): 8-4
Florida has been the most unreadable team in the league. With the Gators stuck in a deep freeze defensively, things looked bad… but are now back on track for UF. This team has been too inconsistent to add to the pile of 9-3 picks, but it could certainly get there. As things stand, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Florida State look like wins. At Kentucky could be the swing game to get that ninth win and join the pile of CFP hopefuls.
Georgia (6-1, lost to Auburn 27-24): 11-1
Georgia basically did everything you can’t do as a favorite. But it’s not headed for the 9-3 stew, at least not for the moment. The next 2 games look like the toughest, and at Ole Miss feels like a coin toss game. But Kirby Smart isn’t likely to see his team have another mistake-fueled game like it did last week. We’ll stick with 11-1 for the Bulldogs, but we’ll be watching the next 2 weeks (after the upcoming bye week) for signs of trouble.
Kentucky (6-1, beat Oklahoma 21-13): 9-3
Kentucky just keeps winning football games. The CFP discussion is legitimate at this point, but it is a tough row yet to navigate for the Wildcats. Home against Vanderbilt shouldn’t be a huge problem and then there’s an off week. But the final 4 opponents (at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri, Louisville) will determine whether Kentucky’s season was good or historically good. At the moment, FPI makes Kentucky a slight favorite over Florida and Louisville and a slight underdog against Missouri. That could change, but for now, we’ll stick Will Stein and the fightin’ Wildcats at 9-3.
LSU (5-2, beat Mississippi State 31-0): 9-3
LSU bounced back in impressive form. The thought here is that the Tigers look like a team that will probably lose to one of the trio of Alabama or Texas at home or Tennessee on the road. But they also seem likely to handle the other games on the slate, so drop them into the host of potential 9-3 squads.
Mississippi State (4-2, lost to LSU 31-0): 7-5
Mississippi State had a rough week brought on by injury issues. Depth could be the major factor in dropping 4 straight, with Oklahoma and at Texas coming up next. The good news is that November looks better and could lead to an epic Egg Bowl to finish the year.
Missouri (5-2, lost to Ole Miss 31-3): 8-4
Mizzou is a tough team to figure. The Tigers are off this week and should be fine at Arkansas. But it’s a November to figure out. Potential back-to-back losses to Texas and Georgia (on the road) could leave a 6-4 team hosting Kentucky and Oklahoma without much to play for. But at the moment, playing both of those teams at home can spell a pair of wins to salvage a good season where there could have been a great one.
Oklahoma (3-3, lost to Kentucky 21-13): 6-6
Oklahoma is valiant on defense, but John Mateer is as lost as a quarterback can be. There’s still a wide variety of outcomes here. There’s no real clear direction with home games with South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M and road trips to Mississippi State, Florida, and Mizzou. As things stand, wins over Carolina, A&M, and State would be the best guess, but it can change on any given Saturday and doubtlessly will.
Ole Miss (5-1, beat Missouri 31-3): 9-3
Ole Miss could be the beneficiary of the shifts from Week 7. The Rebels head to a stumbling Texas and host a much more fallible-looking Georgia on November 7. Those are the 2 remaining games slated as losses, but there’s a lot less certainty there. Pick off either of those and the Rebels are in great CFP shape — and it’s a doable goal, provided the Rebel defense from the last 2 weeks shows up for both of those games.
South Carolina (3-3, off): 6-6
South Carolina is not unlike Oklahoma– a deeply flawed team that can still show up on a given day and create havoc. Home games with Tennessee and Georgia both look like big asks for such an inconsistent team. But road games at Arkansas and Oklahoma are winnable and Clemson isn’t exactly intimidating. We’ll stick at 6-6, and this week’s game with Tennessee is a chance to bend the arc of the season upward a significant bit.
Tennessee (6-1, beat Alabama 26-10): 10-2
Tennessee jumps above the fray of the conference by thumping Alabama. An 11-1 mark isn’t entirely out of the question, but with LSU and Kentucky still ahead, we’ll land here — although not taking a loss on the road this weekend remains pivotal.
Texas (4-2, lost to Florida 27-24): 8-4
Texas made a massive step back with consecutive losses. The Longhorns have the talent to end up 10-2, but execution has been woeful and Ole Miss and at LSU still remain on the schedule. For that matter, at Missouri is far from a guaranteed win given the way this team is playing.
Texas A&M (4-3, beat Citadel 41-0): 5-7
Texas A&M has still played its way into trouble. The season could well hinge on the final 2 games — at Oklahoma and at home against Texas. Both of these seemed like pivotal games SEC-wide, but as we head toward November, they’re more like underachiever battles to stay out of misery. As things stand, the Aggies need to show some more life to even reach 6 wins.
Vanderbilt (3-3, lost to Arkansas 31-21): 3-9
Vanderbilt lost by 10 points at home to the second-worst team in the SEC. Not much more to say here.
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Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
