ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of every game on Kentucky’s 2026 schedule
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ESPN’s FPI isn’t trying to scare Kentucky fans who have high hopes for Will Stein as he takes over in Lexington.
Instead, the FPI projections for Year 1 of a new era is just a reality check that could trigger some motivation for Kentucky as it enters a possible new phase of football. Stein has arrived after running Oregon’s high-octane offense the past 3 years, and he’s already talking tough, telling reporters recently that Kentucky should start winning more because he’s now on the job.
But while Stein gets going and has high expectations for the program (and himself), the FPI for the 2026 season is seeing some rough times ahead this fall. After the Week 1 matchup against Youngstown State, in which Kentucky is a heavy favorite at home, the challenges begin in earnest, like right away, with Alabama coming to Lexington for a nationally televised game.
Not surprisingly, the Cats are getting a real low win probability for that Week 2 showdown, and Kentucky is only favored by the FPI in 1 other game for the entire season after the Week 1 battle. Only the Week 4 home game against South Alabama are the Wildcats favored to win, with SEC land mines everywhere Stein turns because that’s what he signed up for when taking the job.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is just dipping things in reality for Kentucky, and here is what the week-by-week ledger looks like as things get rolling in Lexington next Saturday:
- Sept 5: Youngstown State Penguins | 95.0% chance to win
- Sept 12: Alabama Crimson Tide | 17.5% chance to win
- Sept 19: Texas A&M Aggies | 10.5% chance to win
- Sept 26: South Alabama Jaguars | 90.6% chance to win
- Oct 3: South Carolina Gamecocks | 25.5% chance to win
- Oct 10: LSU Tigers | 18.5% chance to win
- Oct 17: Oklahoma Sooners | 13.7% chance to win
- Oct 24: Vanderbilt Commodores | 45.0% chance to win
- Nov 7: Tennessee Volunteers | 19.2% chance to win
- Nov 14: Florida Gators | 32.9% chance to win
- Nov 21: Missouri Tigers | 24.6% chance to win
- Nov 28: Louisville Cardinals | 43.2% chance to win
The Wildcats’ implied win total of 4.36 for the regular season provides a challenge for Kentucky on paper, even before the first snap is taken on Sept. 5. Just 4 wins probably wouldn’t satisfy a hopeful fan base and probably wouldn’t do the trick for Stein either, but maybe that’s just the bulletin board material that’s needed for the new head coach, his new players and Big Blue Nation.
With Stein trying to change the culture right away at Kentucky, here is what the Kalshi market is currently saying about the Wildcats’ potential win total for the 2026 season:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
