ESPN’s FPI predicts the outcome for every game of Florida’s 2026 season
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The Jon Sumrall era begins this fall in Gainesville, as Florida will hope that the former Tulane head coach can bring the program back to its former elite status in college football.
But of course, the SEC is generally unforgiving to first-year coaches, and Sumrall faces an especially difficult slate of games ahead of him.
Half of the teams on Florida’s schedule are ranked in the preseason AP poll, and as a result, ESPN’s Football Power Index only makes Florida a favorite in 7 of its 12 games:
- Sept 5: Florida Atlantic Owls | 96.5% chance to win
- Sept 12: Campbell Fighting Camels | 99.6% chance to win
- Sept 19: Auburn Tigers | 48.4% chance to win
- Sept 26: Ole Miss Rebels | 49.8% chance to win
- Oct 3: Missouri Tigers | 45.9% chance to win
- Oct 10: South Carolina Gamecocks | 62.2% chance to win
- Oct 17: Texas Longhorns | 12.2% chance to win
- Oct 31: Georgia Bulldogs | 19.4% chance to win
- Nov 7: Oklahoma Sooners | 45.4% chance to win
- Nov 14: Kentucky Wildcats | 67.1% chance to win
- Nov 21: Vanderbilt Commodores | 70.2% chance to win
- Nov 27: Florida State Seminoles | 57.1% chance to win
Overall, the FPI believes that Florida should win 6.74 out of its 12 games on average.
Despite that tough schedule, Sumrall does at least get to ease into his first year as a Power 4 head coach. Florida will host in-state foe Florida Atlantic and Campbell before visiting Auburn for its SEC opener.
Parker is currently the sports editor for Gulf Coast Media in Foley, Alabama. He's a graduate from Mizzou who has experience covering the Tiger football and basketball beats for SB Nation, and he's worked for a variety of sports news outlets in the past.
