November football is here, and a crowded field of potential College Football Playoff teams is destined to thin out a bit.
With a month’s worth of games left, here’s how we see the SEC regular season winding up… and admittedly, this is still changing week by week.
But here’s where they stand heading down the stretch.
Alabama (6-2, off): 9-3
Alabama had a week off, and now gets a potentially definitive game. Win at LSU and it’s 10-2 or bust. Lose and it’s time to ponder if losses to LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia will keep the Tide in the Playoff picture (and here’s a hint — probably not if all 3 of those teams get in).
Arkansas (3-5, lost to Missouri 34-10): 3-9
Arkansas faces Auburn on the road and then 3 ranked teams. This one looks pretty certain.
Auburn (4-4, lost to Ole Miss 45-15): 6-6
Auburn has settled back to earth, but does benefit from a playable 3-game run. The Tigers should handle Arkansas and Samford, which leaves Mississippi State on the road as a swing game. In the non-Kamario Taylor era, that’s a reasonable hope, but since it’s on the road, the thought here stays at 6-6.
Florida (5-3, lost to Georgia 27-8): 8-4
Florida took a loss that probably leaves it on the outside of the CFP bubble. A 3-loss team (or 2) will make it, but there’s still some competitive football ahead of the Gators, particularly in Week 11 at Kentucky.
Georgia (7-1, beat Florida 27-8): 11-1
Georgia is about to face 3 ranked teams in a row, with 2 on the road. Ole Miss looks like the most difficult of the games, but given that UGA has basically been a 1-game stumble from perfection, the pick here still goes for 11-1.
Kentucky (7-1, off): 9-3
Kentucky can really put some hay in the barn with a win at Tennessee… or could open itself up to a 1-3 or 0-4 run to finish the season. The Wildcats have been lucky, but have certainly also been good. It’s hard to pick a team with the history that UK has in Knoxville, and if that one is a loss, it feels like one of the remaining 3 (Florida, at Mizzou, Louisville) could well trip up the Wildcats. So 9-3 is the logical pick — but win this weekend and Kentucky can start genuinely considering (gulp) 11-1.
LSU (6-2, off): 9-3
LSU has its own murderers’ row ahead, with 3 top 16 teams in a row. The thought here is that the Tigers drop one — in Knoxville perhaps in Week 12? Losses to Ole Miss, Kentucky, and whichever of those 3 would still leave LSU in the Playoff hunt — particularly with a win over Alabama. So not unlike Kentucky, big game this week. Win and you can have big dreams. Lose and those dreams narrow in quickly.
Mississippi State (4-4, lost to Texas 31-3): 6-6
Mississippi State basically has to win on Saturday when hosting Vanderbilt. Tennessee Tech is ahead and Auburn at home could be beatable if the Bulldogs squint. But as things stand, winning over Vanderbilt would make State’s bowl path much more comfortable. But given how banged up this team is, it feels like Vandy or Auburn are the path — not both.
Missouri (6-2, beat Arkansas 34-10): 7-5
Mizzou fans will not love this pick, but here’s the logic. The Tigers are an (admittedly slight) underdog this week when hosting Texas. They’ll be a massive underdog at Georgia. A 6-4 team with a few dents in the armor may or may not be up for Kentucky in Week 12. For that matter, Oklahoma is capable of occasionally waking up and making trouble. Score it at 7-5 still.
Oklahoma (4-4, lost 42-25 to South Carolina): 5-7
Oklahoma was shocking and not in a good way. If the defense goes south like that, November stands to be a long month. With 3 ranked teams ahead on the schedule, the most likely scenario here is missing out on a bowl game. It’s also not a great sign with the offensive coordinator is fired ahead of a pivotal month of games.
Ole Miss (6-2, beat Auburn 45-15): 9-3
Ole Miss took care of business and saw the back end of its schedule clear up. With Oklahoma half asleep and Mississippi State without Kamario Taylor, this season basically centers now on hosting Georgia. The Bulldogs have been the more consistent team, so they get the edge here. Ole Miss can almost cement a CFP spot with a win. But a loss is dicier — being beaten by Florida and Texas isn’t the best quality loss situation for the Rebels.
South Carolina (5-3, beat Oklahoma 42-25): 8-4
South Carolina is on pace to be the comeback team of the second half of the season. A 2-3 start had USC looking like it was headed nowhere. But with Texas A&M visiting and then Arkansas and Clemson ahead, an 8-4 mark is entirely plausible here. Win this weekend and Shane Beamer can relax a little bit.
Tennessee (6-2, off): 9-3
Tennessee is still in control of its fate, but it got more complicated in Week 8. Texas A&M is on the road, but that doesn’t look too tough — and Diego Pavia isn’t walking through the door in Nashville. That leaves Kentucky and LSU, both at home. You may notice that above, both Kentucky and LSU are given potential losses to Tennessee. Maybe I’m just a sucker for 9-3, but it feels like UT drops one of those next 3 games still. Two winnable but challenging home games sandwiching a road game that could be a surprising problem is just a lot to bite off to pick 10-2.
Texas (6-2, beat Mississippi State 31-3): 9-3
Texas gets a nice break by finishing with Arkansas and A&M. The next 2 games, at Missouri and at LSU, feel like the ones that will tell the tale. The thought here is to project a win at Mizzou and a loss at LSU, but those could easily flip-flop. In any case, the loss to Oklahoma already hurts Texas’s CFP shot, so the Horns might need 10-2 to reach the Playoff. It’s doable, but Texas hasn’t been consistent enough to earn that prediction.
Texas A&M (4-4, off): 5-7
Texas A&M is either going to pull off a significant upset or miss a bowl. Even 5-7 is ambitious, because A&M is a likely underdog all the way. The road games (South Carolina, Oklahoma) are a little easier landing spots than the home games (Tennessee, Texas). But even squinting, there doesn’t seem to be 2 wins in that group.
Vanderbilt (3-5, off): 3-9
Vanderbilt is a very slight road underdog in Starkville. That’s the best shot, because Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee aren’t losing to this team.
Subscribe to the Saturday Football Newsletter — Get the latest news and updates on your team, your conference, and the college football nation straight to your inbox.
Having trouble seeing the signup form? Some privacy or ad-blocking tools can prevent it from loading. You can subscribe directly here.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
