ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on Alabama’s schedule
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After a rocky start to the season, Alabama has started to turn the tide. The Crimson Tide have since delivered commanding victories over UL-Monroe and Wisconsin. However, looming on the horizon is Georgia, set to be their first significant test in the SEC.
So how do the analytics predict Kalen DeBoer and the Tide will fare for the rest of the season? According to the latest projections from ESPN’s FPI, Alabama has an expected win total of just 8.6 for the season. The model gives the Tide only a 2% chance of winning out for the remainder of their schedule.
Here’s a look at Alabama’s updated win probabilities for each remaining game, according to FPI:
- Georgia: 45.0% chance to win
- Vanderbilt: 77.6%
- Mizzou: 56.2%
- Tennessee: 66.4%
- South Carolina: 81.5%
- LSU: 77.1%
- Oklahoma: 69.9%
- Eastern Illinois: 99.0%
- Auburn: 68.0%
Currently ranked No. 14 in the latest AP poll, Alabama is enjoying a bye week and preparing for a showdown with Georgia, who narrowly defeated Tennessee on the road over the weekend, 44-41. Since that initial setback against Florida State, quarterback Ty Simpson has been nothing short of on point, completing 41 of his last 46 passes for 608 yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an interception. Meanwhile, the defense has been formidable, allowing just 178.5 yards per game over its last 2 outings.
Even with a not-so-stellar start, hope is far from lost. Alabama remains a strong contender for spots in both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. However, Week 5 will be pivotal as they face off against Georgia, who also comes into the matchup after some rest. Historically speaking, Alabama holds an advantage over Georgia with 9 wins in their last 10 meetings. Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart is just 1-6 against Alabama.
Lee Ann joins the Saturday Down South team, bringing over fifteen years of experience covering the SEC as both a sports journalist and football scout. With her keen eye for talent, she has also flexes her skills as the Director of Recruiting for the Rebel Walk( Ole Miss) Herring, is a staff writer at USA Today Sports Wildcats Wire, where she dives into the thrilling world of Kentucky football and basketball. When fall rolls around, you can catch her on air as an analyst for the Wake up 502 College Football Show on Big X Sports Radio 96.1 FM—because who doesn't love a good game day chat? A proud Brown University alum, Lee Ann balances her time between the sidelines and press box with her passion for coaching her boys' youth lacrosse and savoring a fine glass of bourbon alongside a good cigar. So, whether she's dissecting plays or rallying the next generation of athletes, Lee Ann is your spirited insider ready to tackle all things SEC!
