ESPN’s SP+ predicts Ole Miss vs. Washington State against the spread
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You never truly know what will happen in a college football game. That said, barring a major, MAJOR surprise, the Ole Miss Rebels are going to beat the Washington State Cougars this weekend. Ole Miss (5-0, 3-0 SEC) is the No. 4 team in the country. Washington State (3-2, 0-0 Pac-12) is traveling roughly 2,000 miles for a 9:45 a.m. P.T. kickoff. That’s not an ideal recipe for success if you’re a Cougar fan. Thankfully, there’s a way to watch this game that should make things a little more interesting: the spread and total.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Rebels as 32.5-point favorites on Saturday afternoon. The expected point total (58.5) is the second highest on the SEC’s Week 7 slate, so there should be plenty of points. But will Ole Miss be scoring all of them, or just most of them? Thankfully, ESPN’s Bill Connelly is here to offer insight.
Connelly created SP+, a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” back in 2008. Since then, he has used it to predict season-long and week-to-week results in college football. His SP+ projection for Washington State vs. Ole Miss has the Rebels barely covering their massive spread, and the total going under by a small amount.
- ESPN SP+ Prediction: Ole Miss 45-11 (Rebels -32.5, U 58.5)
This year, Connely’s SP+ projections are 144-152 (48.6%) against the spread and 159-137 (53.7%) on game totals. In 2024, SP+ was 403-389-9 (50.9%) against the spread and 415-386 (51.8%) on game totals.
Connely’s projected final score aligns just as close to DraftKings’ projected team totals — Ole Miss 45.5, Washington State 12.5 — as the spread and game total. This year, the Rebels have topped 40 points in all three of their home games versus unranked foes. The Cougars have made just 1 trip to the central time zone this season, but were blown out 59-10 by North Texas in that contest. Kickoff between Washington State and Ole Miss is set for 12:45 p.m. E.T. (SEC Network) on Oct. 11.
