ESPN’s SP+ metric, according to creator Bill Connelly, is “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.” It’s an important thing to remember, because its prediction for this weekend’s Kentucky Wildcats–South Carolina Gamecocks game might not seem logical without that knowledge.
Connelly’s SP+, which is hitting at a 53.3% clip so far against every FBS vs. FBS spread, sees Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks beating Will Stein’s Wildcats 28-26 on Saturday. The prediction has Kentucky covering the current DraftKings spread (+3) and the game going just under the over/under of 54.5 total points.
In terms of program momentum, the Wildcats and Gamecocks could not be headed in further opposite directions. Kentucky (3-1, 1-1 SEC) is back in the AP poll for the first time since 2023. Meanwhile, South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC) feels on the verge of a head coaching change. The Gamecock fanbase is fed up with Beamer and quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who has struggled. To add insult to injury, edge rusher Dylan Stewart is suspended for Saturday’s game after “egregious contact” with an Alabama player in Week 4.
The Wildcats may feel like the more put-together team heading into action, but there’s a reason the games are played. The Gamecocks, even with potentially questionable crowd support, are on home turf. That means something against a first-year head coach/QB combo, especially in the SEC. Kentucky and South Carolina kick off at 4:15 p.m. ET on Saturday (SEC Network).
