First and 10: Power ranking the SEC head coaches in 2024 … and more

1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

For the first time in 3 years, there’s no argument at the top. The king has left the building.

Long live his top lieutenant.

Kirby Smart escaped Nick Saban’s shadow in 2021 — right after the first national title at Georgia in four decades — and now he’s alone on top of the annual ranking of the SEC coaches.

Saban’s retirement earlier this month ends one of the most fascinating arguments: Who’s the best coach in the SEC, and by proxy, college football?

It was “the now” vs. “the resume.” And the resume just headed to Lake Burton.

SEC coaches should be given an award for simply being part of this meatgrinder league, an elite group not unlike the NFL. It’s always “1 of 32” when speaking of NFL coaching jobs and their premium value.

Now it’s 1 of 16 in the SEC, and while it’s not the same as an NFL gig at the highest level of football, the pay is comparable (for most) and the stress and pressure to win — in this age of uncertain roster management — is significantly more difficult.

Don’t feel sorry for these guys, they know what they’ve signed up for: an unthinkable investment of time and energy that pushes the limits of work and preparation and pressure — knowing every last one of them will be fired or will walk away at some point.

Even Nick Saban.

And now there’s 2 more coaches in the barrel, 2 more programs who may think they’ve got it figured out — but won’t fully grasp it until they’re knee-deep in it. Every day, every week, every year.

“This has always been a game of physicality and speed and length and instinct,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said during Alamo Bowl preparations. “The demands and the rigors of the (SEC) are very real.”

A ranking of the SEC’s 16 head coaches, moving into the highly-anticipated 2024 season:

2. Championship elite

1. Kirby Smart, Georgia

The now: I’m still not convinced Georgia wasn’t 1 of the 4 best teams in 2023, and wouldn’t have beaten Michigan (or anyone else) in the Playoff.

At the very least, Saban cost Smart 1 national title (2017) and a shot at winning another (2023). No one recruits better than Smart, no one develops players better. No one is a better big game coach.

The future: The new schedule — no matter how it shakes out down the road — will be more challenging for Georgia than the previous stroll through the East Division.

The only remaining question: how long can Smart grind, season after season, before needing a new challenge — or walking away from the stress of it all?

2. Brian Kelly, LSU

The now: Kelly knew he had a special offense before the 2023 season, when he proclaimed QB Jayden Daniels could be the best player in college football.

The problem: He (and his defensive staff) still haven’t figured out how to get key stops in big games. That stalled a championship run in Year 2, which ended with another 10-win season.

Good at most places, but not why Kelly left Notre Dame.

The future: Those rare quarterbacks don’t come around often (and Kelly deserves huge credit for Daniels’ development). Now what?

The defense must be rebuilt, QB Garrett Nussmeier has potential and this team looks a lot like Kelly’s Notre Dame teams: Playoff worthy, but 1 or 2 pieces short of making a championship run.

3. One step away

3. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss

The now: The lack of appreciation for what Kiffin has accomplished at Ole Miss is stunning. Double-digit wins in 2 of the past 3 seasons — including a program-best 11 wins in 2023 — is remarkable.

It’s Ole Miss, people; not an SEC blue-blood. No one recruits and reaches transfer portal players like Kiffin.

The future: 2 questions linger: How far can Kiffin take Ole Miss by turning over the roster every season, and how long can Ole Miss keep him in Oxford?

Stop thinking of Kiffin as the 1-and-done Tennessee coach, or the guy who followed The Guy at USC, or Saban’s offensive coordinator and play-caller. He’s so much more than that.

He’s not the same coach, not the same man. He has become a CEO coach — he doesn’t run the offense, Charlie Weis Jr., does — and he’s now the best parts of mentors Pete Carroll and Saban.

The only thing left is to do the unthinkable at Ole Miss.

4. Steve Sarkisian, Texas

The now: Sark went and did it: He officially has Texas “back.” This, of course, can mean only national championship or bust.

And what exactly is wrong with that? Especially with all the inherent advantages at Texas.

The future: He’s building a monster at a program framed to support it.

High school recruiting is as good now as the Golden Age of Mack Brown, and Sarkisian is also landing key impact players from the transfer portal.

He and Kiffin have had parallel coaching tracks. Sarkisian is a different coach than he was at USC and Washington, a different man.

Stop thinking of him as the guy who flamed out at USC, and look more at the guy who has Texas primed for something big. He’s set up to win a national title with the Longhorns — something that has happened once in the past 53 years.

5. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

The now: What else could Alabama have asked for in replacing Saban?

When you land a guy who is 104-12 — including 25-3 as a Power 5 coach — you’ve done something right. In his 2nd year at Washington, DeBoer led the Huskies to the national title game.

In Saban’s 2nd season as a major Division I head coach, he led Michigan State to a 6-6 record and a spot in the Sun Bowl.

The future: It’s all about player procurement. Saban was a terrific coach; the greatest of all time at any level of football.

But he’d be the first to say players win games. It’s just that simple.

If DeBoer can recruit near the same level of Saban (and his ever-changing staffs) over the past 17 years, he has a chance to win big, too.

We’ve already seen what DeBoer can do at Washington — with recruiting classes ranked in the mid-20s. What happens if he starts landing Top 5 recruiting classes?

4. Maintaining

6. Hugh Freeze, Auburn

The now: It’s not that he has won everywhere (he has), or that he does his best work in big games.

He consistently, year after year, does the most important thing in the game: develops high-level quarterbacks. Which is what made 2023 all the more perplexing.

He has won big with Bo Wallace, Chad Kelly and Malik Willis. All castoffs from other programs, all played at a high level under Freeze. He’ll figure it out at Auburn, too.

The future: It typically takes a year for Freeze to develop his structure offensively, and for a quarterback to emerge.

Maybe there’s one on the roster now (Hank Brown?), or maybe Freeze lands one in the spring portal. When he does, it will take off at Auburn.

7. Josh Heupel, Tennessee

The now: The regression this season was as much about the quarterback as it was the lack of elite talent on the perimeter.

Not everyone is Hendon Hooker. But Heupel’s Blur Ball offense is no gimmick, and it will give SEC defenses problems for as long as he’s in Knoxville.

The future: The sport revolves around the quarterback, and Heupel has quickly made Tennessee the place for the position.

It started with 5-star Nico Iamaleava (2024 starter), and includes 5-star George MacIntyre (2025 recruiting class).

Heupel is stacking elite players at the most important position, setting up his offense for success for years to come. Now it’s about getting in the tournament — and forcing others to deal with it.

8. Brent Venables, Oklahoma

The now: After a disastrous first season in 2022, OU wasn’t wasn’t that far from the Playoff in 2023. The Sooners lost 2 games (both on the road) in the regular season by a combined 8 points, and lost the bowl game after star QB Dillon Gabriel opted out.

Venables didn’t panic after Year 1 (when he easily could have) and stayed true to his buildout. Get 1 of those 2 late road losses, and you’re playing Texas again in the Big 12 Championship Game with a spot in the Playoff on the line.

The future: Recruiting has been elite, and the fan base is completely bought in after the rebound in 2023.

Can the Venables defenses of the Clemson years develop in the SEC and give OU a different mentality in a new league that demands it?

9. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri

The now: This is what happens when you’re not bigger than the game, and not consumed with who you are and what you’re about: a rare season unfolds.

Drinkwitz gave up control of the offense and focused on team — and suddenly, everything changed at Missouri. A brilliant move of self-reflection and growth.

The future: He’s likable and gregarious and he has a little riverboat gambler to him. Players love him.

His aw shucks personality fits perfectly at Missouri, but belies a smart football mind. The heavy lift is far from over. Now it’s time to deal with Playoff expectations — with a loaded roster.

10. Mike Elko, Texas A&M

The now: It’s hard to argue the success at Duke. Not just the wins and losses, but the recruiting and development on both sides of the ball.

QB Riley Leonard (Notre Dame), RB Jordan Waters (NC State), CB Brandon Jonson (Oregon), Edge RJ Oben (Notre Dame) and DT Aeneas Peebles (Virginia Tech) all left Duke for bigger programs after Elko took the Texas A&M job.

The future: If Elko can do at Texas A&M what he accomplished at Duke with recruiting and development, this will quickly become a Playoff team.

He has all the advantages he didn’t have at Duke (geographic recruiting footprint, financial support), but not the same patience — and he’s not playing in the same league.

11. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

The now: There’s no doubt 2023 was a significant disappointment. Kentucky had its best team in years, and an experienced transfer QB (Devin Leary) — and lost 6 of 8 to finish the season.

That’s back-to-back 7-6 seasons at UK, and both teams underachieved. Stoops raised the bar in Lexington, and now he has to deal with the bear he created.

The future: As strange as it sounds, this is lowest level at Kentucky since 2015 — the early stages of the Stoops buildout.

UK added former 5-star QB (and Georgia backup) Brock Vandagriff, and Stoops again added critical pieces in the portal. Can they assimilate with the current roster — and play to their potential — this time around?

5. Now or never

12. Sam Pittman, Arkansas

The now: Win or walk. There’s no other way to look at Pittman’s 5th season in 2024.

There’s too much to like about what Pittman means to the state, and how much he loves the program — and has had undeniable pockets of success — to let this thing fail.

The future: What are the Hogs closer to: the 9-4 team in 2021, or the 3-7 team in 2020?

There has been plenty of turnover in the last 2 seasons, including 52 players leaving for the transfer portal. Now Pittman is starting over with a new quarterback (Boise State transfer Taylor Green) and a short leash — and September games at Oklahoma State, Auburn and Texas A&M (Arlington).

13. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

The now: Any way you look at it, there’s some wobble now in Beamer’s buildout.

A rash of injuries on the offensive line didn’t help things, but South Carolina’s regression wasn’t pretty. More unsettling: the Gamecocks continue to lose impact players to the portal (see: Jaheim Bell, Jordan Burch, MarShawn Lloyd, Juice Wells).

The future: A sobering reality: the Gamecocks wasted 1 of 2 seasons with an elite quarterback (Spencer Rattler) who could win in the SEC.

Injuries were clearly a factor — but everyone deals with injuries. That doesn’t give Beamer a pass, and doesn’t mean the he’s still not chasing (like every other South Carolina coach now, and moving forward) the 3 straight 11-win seasons Steve Spurrier produced.

14. Billy Napier, Florida

The now: Florida AD Scott Stricklin points to Napier’s recruiting, but the 2024 class (ranked No. 15 by 247Sports composite) was the program’s worst ranking since Napier’s 1st class in 2022 (No. 18).

That 2022 Napier class, his first with the program, was Florida’s worst since 2015 (No. 21) under Jim McElwain. Then there’s the development and retention. In a word: woof.

The future: A win or walk season includes the most difficult schedule in the nation, and the hope that young players develop quickly and make a significant impact.

A tough ask in a brutal conference.

Napier and Stricklin point to the Arkansas and Missouri games as proof of growth, and that Florida was much closer to improvement than the record indicates. But the Gators lost both games because of coaching decisions — not random bad luck.

15. Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State

The now: New coach, new vision, new hope. But understand this: If Zach Arnett had won 6 or 7 games in 2023, he’d still be the coach.

Now Lebby walks into a situation where it’s not so much about a new frontier with the new Playoff, but 2 more fully-loaded programs to navigate in the new SEC.

The future: Can it be different? Can Lebby, whose offense developed from the uber-successful Art Briles/Baylor spread, make it fun and unique like Mike Leach did for 3 years before his passing?

Leach was 19-17, but his teams were competitive and exciting, and won their share of games against ranked teams. It’s was fun, and it was rewarding — even if it didn’t translate to a 10-win season.

16. Clark Lea, Vanderbilt

The now: You can’t lose all 8 SEC games by an average of 23 points a game. You just can’t — even at Vanderbilt. You can’t be 2-22 in the SEC over the past 3 seasons.

The future: Bleak. There’s no other way to look at it. It’s not all on Lea, who has had problems keeping players he has developed from the transfer portal. That’s the real gut punch.

It’s a vicious cycle that has led to 3 wins in the past 41 SEC games, over 2 different coaches. It doesn’t matter who’s coaching in Nashville, it’s a heavy, untenable lift.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Tennessee CB Kamal Hadden.

“He was having a really productive season before the injury (in late October against Alabama). He made a big jump in his 2nd season as a starter. Played with more confidence, and more aggressively. He’s a long, athletic guy with good instincts. He’s much more comfortable in man, and he knows how to use his hands at the line and with the ball in the air. He needs to work on zone recognition, but that stuff can be coached and figured out.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: most important transfer portal gain.

1. Georgia: RB Trevor Etienne (Florida). Smart hasn’t had a running back with this type of speed and dynamic ability since Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. More balance on offense means more dangerous QB Carson Beck.

2. Texas: Edge Trey Moore (UTSA). He’s not the biggest edge (6-3, 235), but was 3rd in the nation in sacks (14) and has 22 in the past 2 seasons.

3. Ole Miss: DT Walter Nolen (Texas A&M). No bigger need on the roster. An interior disrupter who demands double teams, and who can push the pocket in the pass rush.

4. Alabama: DL LT Overton (Texas A&M). Can play all over the line in an odd front, and can be disruptive at the 1, 3 and 5 technique.

5. Missouri: OT Cayden Green (Oklahoma). An elite pass protector, and a player that had just begun to reach his potential at OU. An important pickup for QB Brady Cook and the passing game.

6. LSU: S Jardin Gilbert (Texas A&M). The LSU secondary was horrendous in 2023, a combination of bad coverage, poor tackling and a lack of confidence. Adding Gilbert is a good start to start fixing all 3 problems.

7. Oklahoma: RB Sam Franklin (Tennessee-Martin). FCS star who wasn’t recruited by FBS schools out of high school, had nearly 1,400 yards rushing and 11 TDs in 2023.

8. Tennessee: OT Lance Heard (LSU). Former 5-star recruit couldn’t get on the field at LSU (behind elite OTs Will Campbell and Emery Jones), but will fill a big void for Tennessee and QB Nico Iamaleava.

9. Texas A&M: Edge Nic Scourton (Purdue). One Big Ten coach told Saturday Down South that Scourton (10 sacks in 2023) was “far and away” the best edge in the Big Ten. A perfect fit for Elko’s new odd front defense.

10. Kentucky: OT Gerald Mincey (Tennessee). Pass protection has been a significant issue for the Wildcats over the last 2 seasons. The return of OT Marques Cox, and the addition of Mincey, solidifies the line.

11. Auburn: LB Dorian Mausi (Duke). Another in a group of defensive players who significantly improved under Elko at Duke.

12. Florida: S Asa Turner (Washington). An experienced, solidifying factor for a secondary that blew too many coverages in 2023. Big hitter, smart player — both of critical need on the Florida defense.

13. South Carolina: RB Raheim Sanders (Arkansas). Elite in 2022, he battled injuries all of 2023 and never hit his stride. When healthy, he’s among the best in the SEC.

14. Arkansas: RB Ja’Quinden Jackson (Utah). A hard runner with deceptively dangerous speed and athleticism. Will get plenty of work. Hogs want to run the ball downhill and between the tackles, where Jackson excels.

15. Mississippi State: QB Blake Shapen (Baylor). Smart and efficient. Can he protect himself and stay healthy — and become a threat in the run game like Dillon Gabriel and Jaxson Dart? Shapen had a solid TD/INT ratio of 42/13.

16. Vanderbilt: QB Diego Pavia (New Mexico State). Maybe exactly what the Commodores need. Brings attitude and talent to the most important position on the field — and the ability to make plays in the run game.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I see where BYU students took off their shirts that spelled “Horns Down” during a basketball game because Texas was offended. Texas doesn’t really think the SEC is going to be that accommodating, do they? — David Stafford, Rock Hill, S.C.

David:

I’m not exactly sure why they took off the shirts — only that they were asked to. I will say this: Texas was adamant with the Big 12 about the taunting of “Horns Down” signs from opponents during competition.

Unless the SEC calls a foul on all opponent signs/taunts — like, say, Florida opponents doing the Gator chomp — Texas can expect to see plenty of it next season.

Frankly, it has been blown way out of proportion. If you don’t want to see it from opponents or their fans, get better and win. Then when you see it, it’s really a sign of respect. Because if they can’t beat you, they mock you.

The SEC may come out this spring (during conference meetings) and declare that the “Horns Down” — and any other mocking of an opponent tradition — is punishable by a penalty or foul. Or commissioner Greg Sankey may simply say we’ve got more important issues with Texas and OU transitioning to the league than 2 fingers pointed at the floor.

9. Numbers

11. Not including QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama has 11 total touchdowns from 7 players — none of whom started in 2023 — returning for the 2024 season.

More disturbing: the Tide lost more touchdowns (13) from 3 starters/part-time starters than the 11 returning: RB Roydell Williams (5 TDs), WR Isaiah Bond (4 TDs), TE Amari Niblack (4 TDs).

The lack of returning production is startling, and an indicator of the impact of losses to the transfer portal. It also shows the depth and breadth of what DeBoer must replace (outside of Milroe) heading into 2024.

10. Quote to note

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables: “We’ve been in that process, though, for the last couple of years, the last 26-plus months in building a roster that can compete in the league we were in and certainly moving forward, what the demand’s gonna be in the SEC.”

Matt Hayes

Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB