Florida vs. Miami: Odds, predictions and best bets for primetime showdown

Miami is set to host Florida on Saturday night an ACC vs. SEC showdown at Hard Rock Stadium.

These in-state rivals also met a year ago, with the Canes prevailing 41-17 in Gainesville. That was the first meeting between these in-state foes since 2019. Florida will be looking to avoid its second-straight loss to Miami and its third-consecutive defeat this season on Saturday night.

Florida vs. Miami predictions, odds

Here’s what the live betting odds look like for this game:

Florida fact sheet

• Florida is 1-2 this season and seems to be spiraling. Most players notably skipped the alma mater after the loss to LSU in Week 3. Florida running backs coach Jabbar Juluke has also been suspended for 3 games due to his involvement in a pregame altercation in Baton Rouge. 
• On the field, the Gators enter this week ranked 68th nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. 
• Quarterback DJ Lagway has been a massive disappointment so far. A gunslinger a year ago, Lagway’s average depth of target has slipped to 7.1 yards in 2025, per PFF. He also leads the SEC with 7 turnover-worthy plays in 2025. 
• Running back Jadan Baugh has been good this season. He owns a 54% success rate and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry. 
• Florida’s defense has been good this year, mostly against the run. The Gators rank in the top-3 nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed and defensive rushing success rate. 
• Against the pass, the Gators have been a bit more vulnerable but they’ve played a tough schedule. Florida’s secondary arguably played well enough to win vs. LSU, limiting Garrett Nussmeier to 220 yards on 27 attempts. 
• Cornerback Devin Moore has been excellent this season, limiting opponents to 4 catches for 33 yards on 8 targets. However, it’s worth noting Miami uses freshman slot receiver Malachi Toney a lot in its offense. Florida’s primary slot defender, safety Sharif Denson, has a 49.7 coverage grade this year from PFF. Denson is excellent in run support, but it will be interesting to see if the Gators make any personnel changes to account for Toney. 

Miami fact sheet

• Miami is 3-0 this season with 2 AP Top-25 wins already. It’s the first time since 2021 that Miami has earned multiple ranked wins in a season. 
• Quarterback Carson Beck has been excellent in his return from elbow surgery. He is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt and is leading the ACC with a passer efficiency rating of 185.7.
• As mentioned above, slot receiver Malachi Toney has been Miami’s best offensive weapon in the passing game so far this year. He has 18 catches for 228 yards and 1 touchdown. CJ Daniels has also been excellent, catching 14 of his 15 targets on the year. 
• Miami has a Doak Walker candidate at running back in Mark Fletcher Jr. He has 272 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in 3 games. 
• The strength of Miami’s offense might be up front. This is a group that’s led by Francis Mauigoa, who could be playing on Sundays in the relatively near future. As a group, Miami’s 5 most-played offensive linemen have only allowed a combined 12 pressures this year. 
• Defensively, Miami has been excellent against the run and above-average vs. the pass. In total, this unit ranks No. 27 nationally in EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper. 
• Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor might be the best tandem of pass rushers in the country. They’ve already combined for 22 pressures, 4 sacks and 15 quarterback hurries this year. 
• Damari Brown has been Miami’s best cover corner this year by PFF grade, but the Canes have rotated heavily at that position to begin the year. Four different Miami cornerbacks have played 70+ snaps already. 
• Keionte Scott has been excellent as a versatile safety who plays in the slot. Per PFF, he’s only missed 1 tackle this season and has limited opposing receivers to 56 yards on 12 targets. 

Florida vs. Miami picks

Malachi Toney has been Miami’s best pass-catcher this season, but there’s reason to believe his usage could take a dip in this contest. Josiah Trader has been limited to start the year after being banged up in fall camp but is now set to be fully available in Week 4 according to Mario Cristobal. If healthy, Trader could end up being the top receiver on this team so there is some risk that Toney will see a meaningful reduction in target share. Toney also hasn’t often been a downfield threat this season. More than half of his targets have come within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage, per PFF. There’s a reasonable chance he could catch 5 or 6 passes in this game and still go under his yardage total. Toney has also caught all 12 of his targets that were thrown within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage, so he’s due for some catch-rate regression. 

Pick: Malachi Toney under 68.5 receiving yards (-114 on FanDuel)

Florida’s offense has been much worse and more turnover-prone in the second half this year than in the first half. The Gators have scored on 62.5% of their first-half drives so far this year. That number plummets to about 22% in the second half. Maybe it’s too small of a sample, but it’s also a trend I expect to continue for another week given Miami’s talent, scheme and coaching advantages in this matchup. I think the Canes will wear down Florida and might even make the Gators quit in the second half. 

Pick: Miami -3.5 in the second half (-105 on Caesars)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.