Friday Forecast: SDS Staff picks 5 Week 1 matchups against the spread
By Ethan Stone
Published:
The SEC regular season kicked off Thursday night with Mizzou‘s blowout win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. With the season now officially underway, our crew here at Saturday Down South is back with 5 Week 1 picks against the spread.
Let’s jump right in.
(All odds are via DraftKings, finalized on Thursday, Sept. 3. Point spreads might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 1 Picks ATS
Here’s how the SDS crew picked 5 SEC games in Week 1 (against the spread).
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2025 Season Records
- Spenser Davis: 2-1
- Andy Olson: 1-2
- Adam Spencer: 0-3
- Ethan Stone: 2-1
East Carolina at Alabama (-28.5)
Spenser Davis: Under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama has absolutely decimated these tune-up opponents early in the season. In 2024, the Tide beat Western Kentucky 63-0. In 2025, they dismantled ULM 73-0. ECU has a rivalry game against Appalachian State in Week 2 that’s much more winnable — I’m not sure what kind of fight the Pirates will put up in Week 1 against an Alabama offense that will be looking for style points. PICK: Alabama -28.5
Andy Olson: I know rosters change more than ever year-to-year in the portal era, but Blake Harrell led ECU to a 9-4 season with a bowl win last year. I don’t think this game will be truly close, but I can see the Pirates covering 41-14. I’m intrigued by the Keelon Russell hype, but it’s still a first career start for a second-year QB. PICK: East Carolina +28.5
Adam Spencer: I went 0-3 last week, so I’ve already got a hole to climb out of. So I’ll echo Spenser here and say Kalen DeBoer once again takes care of business as a heavy favorite. Alabama could cover this spread by halftime if all goes well. PICK: Alabama -28.5
Ethan Stone: East Carolina is in the higher tier of “cupcake” opponents Alabama could have faced, but the Pirates are still outmatched all over the field. Also, Kalen DeBoer’s Tide have outscored G6 opponents 286-23 across his first 2 seasons in Tuscaloosa – 16 of those points came from Alex Golesh’s South Florida Bulls in 2024. Ant, meet boot. PICK: Alabama -28.5
Baylor vs. Auburn (-7.5) (Atlanta, GA)
Spenser Davis: We’ll see what Byrum Brown looks like in SEC play, but I expect him to look just fine against Baylor in Week 1. This should be an Auburn-heavy crowd in Atlanta and I think the Tigers will have a significant talent advantage over the Bears at most positions on the field. Pick: Auburn -7.5
Andy Olson: The half point is bugging me here. I’m confident Auburn wins by 7, and 8+ feels more likely than 6 points or fewer. I like the comfort of Byrum Brown with Alex Golesh’s offense. And in the DJ vs. DJ matchup when Baylor has the ball, I think it’s advantage Durkin. PICK: Auburn -7.5
Adam Spencer: If Auburn doesn’t win this game by 10+ points, it’s a huge red flag. Baylor has a coach on one of the hottest seats in college football (outside of Tallahassee) and a QB who was literally quoted as saying he thought God forgot about him during his time at Florida. DJ Lagway could end up being solid for Baylor, but Auburn can’t let him get into a groove in Week 1. PICK: Auburn -7.5
Ethan Stone: I’ve seen a lot of people point to Auburn’s large makeup of G6 transfers as a positive for Baylor here, but the Bears aren’t exactly stacked in the trenches. Auburn is the more talented team and more than anything, I trust the Tigers to score. While DJ Lagway has potential, that confidence isn’t really there yet. PICK: Auburn -7.5
Clemson at LSU (-10)
Spenser Davis: I so badly want to buy low on Clemson, but I just can’t do it — I don’t believe in Chad Morris as offensive coordinator and I’m not sure the Tigers have a quality starting quarterback. I’m not sure LSU will have a great Year 1 under Lane Kiffin, but I do think there’s some blowout potential here. PICK: LSU -10
Andy Olson: I feel like it’s always an adventure with Lane Kiffin teams covering the spread in big games. I’d be stunned by a Clemson upset outright, but I’m going to take the fightin’ Dabos to keep this one within single digits. PICK: Clemson +10
Adam Spencer: Reading the words “Chad Morris as offensive coordinator” in Spenser’s answer sent shivers down my spine. LSU by a million. PICK: LSU -10
Ethan Stone: The funniest possible outcome here is Clemson winning by 3 touchdowns. Could you imagine? Anyway… PICK: LSU -10
FAU at Florida (-26.5)
Spenser Davis: I don’t want to lean too much on trends, but I don’t show a significant edge here for either team. Since that’s the case, I’ll point this out — Jon Sumrall is 32-17-1 (FBS regular-season games only) against the spread in his head coaching career. Florida has a huge talent edge here and should be eager to prove it. PICK: Florida -26.5
Andy Olson: As excited as I am to watch the Buster Faulkner offense with Jadan Baugh, Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson and Eric Singleton, I’m not sure about covering 27 points in the debut. Aaron Philo has limited experience, and it’s a rebuilt offensive line that hasn’t played together before, which could lead to some Week 1 miscues. I don’t think a Florida win will ever be in doubt, but I could see this being something like 41-17. PICK: FAU +26.5
Adam Spencer: If Florida just keeps handing the ball to Jadan Baugh, this should be fairly easy to cover. FAU is No. 113 in ESPN’s Football Power Index. This isn’t the version of the Owls that Lane Kiffin made relevant several years ago. Give me the Gators in a big-time blowout. PICK: Florida -26.5
Ethan Stone: This is the same pick as Alabama -28.5, in my mind. This may be Jon Sumrall’s first game at Florida, but his Gators are bigger and faster than the Owls. No need to overthink this one. PICK: Florida -26.5
Louisville vs. Ole Miss (-6.5) (Nashville, TN)
Spenser Davis: I think Louisville is live to win this game outright. Ole Miss has a lot of new faces on offense and Pete Golding is still relatively untested as an SEC head coach. I think this game should be much closer to a pick ’em even with Ole Miss’s talent edge on paper. PICK: Louisville +6.5
Andy Olson: The Ole Miss offense will likely take a step back following the departures of Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr., but new OC John David Baker has Ole Miss familiarity and some play-calling experience, so I think Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are in for another big season. We saw in the CFP that Pete Golding knows how to get the Rebels fired up for a big game. PICK: Ole Miss -6.5
Adam Spencer: Louisville doesn’t technically need to win this game to have a path to the Playoff. The rest of the Cardinals’ schedule is a cakewalk. I’m going to buy into the Pete Golding era. The Rebels have 2 top-5 offensive players in the entire conference in Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy. That duo goes off and Ole Miss wins by a touchdown. PICK: Ole Miss -6.5
Ethan Stone: There’s been so much talk about Ole Miss’s date against Lane Kiffin and LSU that a lot of folks (hopefully not Ole Miss!) are forgetting about a tough season opener against Jeff Brohm and the Louisville Cardinals. That alone makes me want to take a talented Louisville squad here. Not to mention, Brohm is in his element in games like this. PICK: Louisville +6.5
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Ethan Stone is a Saturday Down South News Editor and an advocate for the return of the Seattle Supersonics.
