Friday Forecast: SDS Staff picks 5 Week 3 matchups against the spread
By Ethan Stone
Published:
The most anticipated matchup of the college football season is here. Lane Kiffin and the No. 7 LSU Tigers are set to travel to Oxford to face No. 8 Ole Miss. Elsewhere, Auburn hosts Florida and Alabama looks for revenge against visiting Florida State.
The Saturday Down South crew is back for picks on these games and a few more. Let’s jump right in.
(All odds are via DraftKings, finalized on Thursday, Sept. 17. Point spreads might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 3 Picks ATS
Here’s how the SDS crew picked 5 SEC games in Week 3 (against the spread).
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2026 Season Records
- Spenser Davis: 7-6
- Andy Olson: 5-8
- Adam Spencer: 5-8
- Ethan Stone: 10-3
Houston at Texas Tech (-7.5) (Friday)
Spenser Davis: I have not been impressed with Texas Tech at all to start the year. The offense has struggled, anchored by a poor running game. The defense hasn’t been particularly good either. Neither of these teams was able to separate from Oregon State, which doesn’t seem like a great sign for either program’s postseason hopes this year. Still, I like Willie Fritz a lot and I’ll take the Cougars plus the points. PICK: Houston +7.5
Andy Olson: Texas Tech hasn’t looked that great yet, but Houston almost feels like too popular of an upset pick. As a big fan of tortillas and SP+, I’ll ride with the Red Raiders. PICK: Texas Tech -7.5
Adam Spencer: I think Houston is a live underdog in this one and could win outright. Texas Tech appears to be a bit overrated, and Houston is a dark-horse Playoff contender. I’ll ride with the Cougars. PICK: Houston +7.5
Ethan Stone: This is the first real test either of these teams will face this season, and I’m expecting a close game. Seeing as Houston gets a touchdown here, I think it’d be wise to take the points. PICK: Houston +7.5
Kentucky at Texas A&M (-16.5)
Spenser Davis: I’m hesitant to pick Texas A&M after it won by a flatteringly high score against Arizona State last weekend, but I’ll lay the points here. I’m not sure how much gas Kentucky will have left in the tank after throwing a strong first punch against Alabama last Saturday. I think Texas A&M has what it takes on both sides of the ball to cover a number this big at home. PICK: Texas A&M -16.5
Andy Olson: Allowing 32 unanswered points in a collapse like Kentucky did shows that the Wildcats have issues that extend beyond coaching or personnel. The Cats aren’t going to get those issues fixed in a week, and they’re not going to fare well at Kyle Field. Big line be damned, gig ’em. PICK: Texas A&M -16.5
Adam Spencer: I’m going to disagree with Andy here. I think the Kentucky collapse was a case of one mistake snowballing into something more. I trust Will Stein and his staff to get that fixed. I like Texas A&M to win this game comfortably, but not by 17+ points. PICK: Kentucky +16.5
Ethan Stone: I’m rolling with Kentucky to cover here. I don’t think Will Stein did all that talking to get embarrassed twice in a row to start SEC play. Additionally, Mike Elko is not great against the spread, sitting at 6-10 at home across his Aggies tenure (10-18 overall). PICK: Kentucky +16.5
Florida State at Alabama (-19.5)
Spenser Davis: This is an easy one for me — Alabama. I would probably have taken the Tide up to 4 touchdowns, let alone 3. Alabama will be looking to make a statement this weekend after losing to Florida State in Tallahassee last season. Unlike in 2025 when the Noles had Gus Malzahn and a decent offense, I don’t think they’ll be equipped to put up a fight this season. PICK: Alabama -19.5
Andy Olson: If Florida State beats Alabama again, the next FSU athletic director should give Mike Norvell a lifetime contract. On that note, give Norvell an extension if the Noles cover the spread. A Gator can dream. PICK: Alabama -19.5
Adam Spencer: Keelon Russell got a couple of mistakes out of his system against Kentucky. Now he returns home to play in front of a supportive crowd against a team (and school) in turmoil. Give me the Tide. PICK: Alabama -19.5
Ethan Stone: Alabama wants revenge. Florida State looks… bleak. I think the Tide will get it done in a big way. PICK: Alabama -19.5
Florida (-2.5) at Auburn
Spenser Davis: I feel very confident in Florida this week even on the road. Aaron Philo has been better than expected to start the season and the Gators have a major advantage with Buster Faulkner, who might be the best OC in the country. Auburn’s offense (and Byrum Brown) has historically struggled against P4 opponents. Florida is good enough to be ranked and I think the Gators will show that this week. PICK: Florida -2.5
Andy Olson: I think Florida made the better coaching hire and has built the better roster, but I don’t like the timing of this one for the Gators. Auburn on the road at night is a tough assignment for a team’s first Power 4 opponent of the season. Nick Saban, who calls himself a “semi-Gator” these days, has described going to Jordan-Hare Stadium as playing in a haunted house. Maybe I just have battered Gator syndrome from Florida failing to win at Auburn in 3 tries this century (2001, 2006, 2011), but I can’t shake the feeling that UF will have some road woes on Saturday night. PICK: Auburn +2.5
Adam Spencer: I’ve written this week about how I don’t like that this game has to go up against LSU-Ole Miss. I think it deserves better. As long as Buster Faulkner keeps feeding Jadan Baugh and Aaron Philo continues to look solid, I’ll go with the Gators to win and cover. PICK: Florida -2.5
Ethan Stone: A tough Auburn defense faces a Gators offense loaded with talent, starting with Jadan Baugh and Vernell Brown III. How much time will Aaron Philo have in the pocket? I’d say that probably decides this one, and I like the Gators O-line to win the battle at the LOS. Jon Sumrall won the last meeting between these 2 head coaches (Tulane over USF in 2024), so I’ll roll with Sumrall to get it done once again. PICK: Florida -2.5
LSU (-2.5) at Ole Miss
Spenser Davis: I like LSU this week. The Ole Miss crowd will be hostile, but I don’t think its secondary will be up for this test. The Tigers also have a big advantage in that Lane Kiffin is extremely familiar with all of Trinidad Chambliss’s weaknesses and shortcomings. LSU’s defense should be the best unit on the field and I think the offense will be much better than it was last weekend in a tune-up game. I’m also not at all scared off by seeing Sam Leavitt on the injury report — I’m chalking that up to Lane being Lane until proven otherwise. PICK: LSU -2.5
Andy Olson: I’m more impressed with what LSU has done so far, and I think the Tigers have the better coaches, but Ole Miss has homefield advantage and Trinidad Chambliss. I’ll go with the Rebels to get the most celebrated win since Katy Perry partied in Oxford in 2014. PICK: Ole Miss +2.5
Adam Spencer: I can’t wait to watch every single second of this game. Lane Kiffin is doing Lane Kiffin stuff with the injury reports. Oxford is getting riled up. Kewan Lacy and Trinidad Chambliss are ready to roll. But the LSU defense appears to be elite. Much like his return to Knoxville, I expect Kiffin to pull off a victory against his former team. PICK: LSU -2.5
Ethan Stone: I’d be shocked if Sam Leavitt doesn’t suit up for the Tigers. Ultimately, I don’t think it matters. Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and he’s proven he can win in the clutch once already to start the year. Sure, Lane knows Chambliss – but Ole Miss knows Lane, too. I don’t know that we’ll see any golf balls this time around, but Rebels fans are going to be fired up. PICK: Ole Miss +2.5
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Ethan Stone is a Saturday Down South News Editor and an advocate for the return of the Seattle Supersonics.
