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How to bet SMU vs. Penn State: Picks, predictions, odds

Published: Dec 21, 2024 · 8:00 AM EST

SMU will play Penn State on Saturday afternoon in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

The Nittany Lions are considered to be significant favorites in what is expected to be a frigid affair in Happy Valley. Both teams are 11-2 — and licking their wounds after losing in their respective conference championship games.

This matchup features numerous high-level offensive players on both sides, as well as a couple of defenses that graded out as amongst the best in the country during the regular season.

Here’s a look at the betting odds for SMU vs. Penn State as well as some picks and predictions for how this game will unfold:

SMU vs. Penn State betting odds

Here are the latest betting odds for this game, via DraftKings:

Spread: SMU +9 (-110) | Penn State -9 (-110)

Total: Over 54 (-110) | Under 54 (-110)

When Penn State has the ball

On paper, Penn State had one of the nation’s best offenses. The Nittany Lions ranked 7th in the country in yards per play, and the advanced stats largely back it up. They rank 2nd nationally in success rate and 7th in EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper.

This isn’t an offense without warts, however. Drew Allar has yet to have a great game vs. a ranked opponent in his Penn State career, something that has been well-documented on this site and others. In 7 career games against teams that finished the season ranked, Allar is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt. The Nittany Lions are also just 2-5 straight up in those contests.

The Penn State running game has been great this season, though. The Nittany Lions led the Big Ten in yards per carry this season at 5.34. Penn State has a couple of 800+ yard rushers in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, both of whom are likely to have a big impact against SMU.

Of course, the Mustangs are largely in this spot because of their stout defense. SMU enters with the No. 3 rush defense in the country on a per-play basis. That’s especially noteworthy as the Nittany Lions ran the ball roughly 56% of the time in 2024 — and could do so even more in this matchup if Allar struggles again.

SMU’s secondary isn’t a pushover, either. The Mustangs only conceded 30 pass completions of 20+ yards during the regular season vs. ACC opponents, which was tied for the best mark in that league. SMU — which was in a Group-of-5 conference until this year — might be at a talent disadvantage vs. Penn State, but the Mustangs hardly showed any signs of that this season in the ACC. SMU stopped the run as well as anyone in the country and limits deep passes — that’s a recipe for success in any context.

When SMU has the ball

When evaluating SMU’s season, you have to filter out some early-season results. That’s because the Mustangs made a QB change following their 3rd game of the season — a 3-point loss to BYU — as they replaced Preston Stone with Kevin Jennings.

Since Jennings took over in Week 4, SMU ranks 6th nationally in pass efficiency rating behind only Indiana, Miami, Colorado, Ole Miss and Ohio State. That’s pretty good company! That list accounts for the nation’s leader in pass efficiency, a Heisman Trophy finalist, the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, Ole Miss’s all-time leading passer and Ohio State’s quarterback.

SMU’s running game is headlined by Brashard Smith, although Jennings also rushed for 426 yards (adjusted for sacks). Smith carried the ball 217 times for 1,270 yards through SMU’s first 13 games. Although he was highly productive, the advanced numbers don’t think much of SMU’s rushing attack — it’s by far the weakest part of its profile, as the Mustangs rank just 92nd nationally in EPA-per-rush this season according to Game on Paper.

SMU does run the ball about 54% of the time, so its lack of efficiency in that area is of some concern. What’s even more problematic is that Penn State has a truly elite rush defense. The Nittany Lions ranked 6th in the country in EPA-per-rush allowed this season. Only 2 players rushed for more than 90 yards on Penn State this season: Woody Marks and Quinshon Judkins.

Penn State’s secondary was also stingy. It wasn’t until the Big Ten Championship Game that someone (Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel) posted a passer efficiency rating above 150 on this defense. Gabriel was also the only Big Ten quarterback to pass for more than 250 yards on Penn State.

How to bet the spread in SMU-Penn State

I have questions about how Allar will play given his struggles in spots like this before, but I think Penn State will find a way to win by double digits. Andy Kotelnicki is an elite offensive coordinator and the Nittany Lions have multiple ways to move the ball. They also might have the best defense that SMU has faced all season. Kevin Jennings is really good, but Ohio State has faced some great quarterbacks and has generally performed well (with the Oregon game standing as the lone outlier).

For all the reasons mentioned, I like the Nittany Lions. It doesn’t hurt that Penn State is 21-9 against the spread (70%) when favored by between 7 and 14 points during the James Franklin era.

PICK: Penn State -8.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

How to bet the total in SMU-Penn State

It’s worth noting that the weather forecast in State College on Saturday afternoon features sub-freezing temperatures and a chance (albeit a relatively small one) of snow. The Nittany Lions will certainly be more used to the frigid conditions than SMU, but the atmosphere could make it difficult for both offenses.

With that in mind, I feel pretty good about the under in this spot. Both teams have strong rush defenses and I’m not confident either quarterback will be able to have a big game regardless of the weather — the fact that it’s going to be cold just strengthens the case for the under.

PICK: Under 54 (-110 via DraftKings)

Prop bet pick for SMU vs. Penn State

Tyler Warren’s longest reception under 25.5 yards (-115 via bet365). By now, everyone knows about Tyler Warren — Penn State’s do-it-all tight end who won the Mackey Award and garnered some Heisman Trophy consideration from some corners of the college football landscape. He’s by far Penn State’s best and most important offensive player. He accounted for 14.9% of all offensive touches Penn State had through its first 13 games. He’s one of just 4 tight ends to reach that threshold over the last 5 seasons, and he’s the only one to do so at the power-conference level.

With that being said, SMU has defended the tight end position well this season. The Mustangs have only allowed 4 25+ yard receptions by tight ends this season. Only 1 tight end (Stanford’s Sam Roush) amassed more than 50 receiving yards in a game this season against the Mustangs. I have to assume the Mustangs will be doing everything they can to make someone other than Warren beat them. Between SMU’s competence on defense, Allar’s struggles vs. elite defenses and the cold weather forecast, I think Warren’s longest reception stays under this number.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.